Will China "learn" from Japan this time?
The yen depreciated sharply, and a large number of tourists from developed countries went to play, and for a time the Japanese economy showed a rare boom.
Then, the majesty of Japan's ** and the changes in the Tokyo property market are the envy of the Chinese people.
There is a rhythm of old trees blooming new flowers
As for Wall Street's comments on our economy, it will definitely pull about the aging of the population.
This is very interesting, Japan has a high aging population, and all kinds of people are favored, but we are not?
So, many times, if you only look at the short term, or only look at a few sides, it is easy to get confused.
The biggest logical disorder on our internet at the moment is:
While saying that China is about to enter the tragic situation of Japan lost for 30 years, it cannot explain the tragic situation that Japan has come out of for 30 years.
Going around and around, Japan is crazy to depreciate its currency, printing money into the dead to raise inflation.
Any developing country that is not an ally of the United States does these two things, basically no good results, if you don't believe it, you can look at the economic history of Latin America.
But that's what Japan is doing now, and the applause is thunderous, as if it has found a panacea for economics.
What's even more bizarre is that a recent wave of data disclosure:
Japan's GDP unexpectedly contracted for the second consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The long-term veteran knows that according to the definition of economics, two consecutive quarters of economic recession is a technical recession, which is clearly written in textbooks.
In addition, wages in Japan have risen, but after adjusting for inflation, real wages have increased by more than 2%.
An economy with a constantly depreciating exchange rate, negative real wage growth, and negative GDP growth is definitely the most straightforward portrayal of an economic depression. However, it is now rising to the death with the property market. Then, all of a sudden, Wall Street writers said how the Japanese economy is going to light, this is not a financial war and a ** war, what is it?
If we follow this logic of Japan, Argentina should now be the greatest economy in the world. Inflation is up 100%+, up 300%+, exchange rate**, and real income growth is negative, which is very similar to Japan.
But we rarely hear an American openly sing about the Argentine economy, and when Milley came to power, he was going to see Biden, and he was slapped in the face.
There is only one reason:
Next to China is Japan, not Argentina.
Obviously, if we use classical Western economic theories to interpret today's Japan, it doesn't make sense at all.
This is because this is no longer a simple economic phenomenon, but a matter of political economy.
In essence, Japan is doing this, which is equivalent to burning its own savings desperately, and it is also burning happily.
In the process of burning savings, even if the economy has declined, the wealth effect caused by the double rise in housing stocks is still very fascinating.
Then, a large amount of American money came in to make money, and they desperately sang more about Japan, which made people even more fascinated.
Originally, a large proportion of the funds that were going to China went to India, followed by Japan.
In this way, the Americans directly speculated on Japan's assets.
In other words, while real disposable income is falling, Japan's asset class** is rising, and reason tells us that this is a bubble.
If you do this on China's side, and then desperately sing more about Japan and short about China, it will be easy to induce Chinese investors to go overseas.
As long as there are enough leeks here in China, Japan will kill them in a wave and directly trap Chinese buyers.
In fact, now the best players in Japan are constantly making profits.
On the other hand, many buyers of houses in Tokyo often circulate in the Chinese circle if they want to transfer their properties for a profit, because there are few local buyers of turtles in Japan. In other words, it is equivalent to a drumming and passing flowers in the Chinese circle in Japan.
We will not mention the costs of holding real estate in Japan, such as taxes, exchange losses, and delivery cycles.
In the era of great power games, if you can set up a leek harvesting bureau here to induce people from other countries to come and play, it can be regarded as a high-end game.
Japan's crazy burning of savings is nothing more than using this as bait to siphon global funds, especially our funds here, to help Japan ** fill the capital deficit.
It's just that China is also strictly guarded here.
Of course, we must also note that if Japan continues to do this, domestic savings will be burned too sharply, which will hurt the future prospects of the Japanese economy.
The global economy has entered a lost era, and savings are an important strategic resource for an economy. Because, savings can be converted into investments, and investments can be converted into income growth. You just consumed this strategic resource, and you won't be able to live in the future?
Moreover, savings should be invested more in scientific and technological innovation, rather than for financial warfare, geopolitical conflicts, and military expansion.
Obviously, Japan also does not have strategic autonomy, and whatever the Americans say, just do it, otherwise the Tokyo District Prosecutor will ask you to talk about your life.
Japan's economy is on the verge of becoming the fourth largest in the world, and India and Germany are catching up.
In fact, the Japanese are now in a dilemma.
Standing in line with the United States, that is nothing to say, it is life and death.
However, in the whole of Northeast Asia, and even South Korea's Yoon Suk-yeol is polite to them, and several other economies are surrounded by Japan, and they are hostile.
Considering the historical entanglement between the two countries in the past, the Japanese are of course afraid that one day they will retaliate against us.
Even if the Japanese no longer look down on us in their hearts, this feeling of being "asked for their lives" for a long time is still a lingering haze of their nation.
Moreover, the Japanese know very well that as long as China completely sits on the throne of superpower, there will be no good days for Japan.
Therefore, this wave of cooperation with the United States in the financial war against us, they can also be regarded as a big gamble on their own national fortunes.
If you win the bet, then continue to be crooked for many years; If you lose the bet, it will be up to the Americans to deal with it when the time comes.
Therefore, around April this year, even if the economic data is not good, it is very likely that the Japanese central government will start raising interest rates to cooperate with the United States to carry out the final blow of this round of financial war against us.
Unless there is a big problem in Japan, no matter how many seven injuries are punched, they will have to fight to pull out this knife.
As for how China will react after the knife is drawn, it is not something that the Japanese can think about.
Therefore, now the village says that it wants to be bright, and this is not said to us, but to people outside.
Many times, it doesn't matter what important people say on what occasions.
What you have to be concerned about is: why say it at this juncture? To whom do you want to say it? Whose resources are to be integrated and what are they going to do?
This is the true value of "news"!
For example, when Putin was interviewed by American journalists recently, he talked a lot about history. Of course, this has a very core purpose, but the reason is not sufficient.
The real good reason is that Americans can do the first year of junior high school, and we will do the fifteenth; If the Americans want NATO's eastward expansion and realize that missiles can reach Moscow in 5 minutes, then I will fight for your life.
This is actually the wisdom of the Chinese:
It's not me who wants to **, it's you who force me**.
Nowadays, the United States, Japan and India are engaged in a financial war near us, and although we are on the defensive, our attitude is the above sentence.
From ancient times to the present, self-defense and counterattack are the most lethal.
This is why Chinese civilization has been subverted many times, but each time it can stand up again.
Because we are the descendants of "Yi", everything that our Chinese civilization believes in is around the thinking of the Book of Changes. Great power games, even more so.
At present, it is "don't use the hidden dragon", but it also shows that there will be "flying dragons in the sky" in the future.