On February 1, the steel spot market was slightly **, and the main varieties of the market were mainly down, of which the main coking coal was popular. At present, the steel market is basically in a state of price and no market, and the pre-holiday steel price.
oneAnalysis of long and short factors
1 Caixin China's manufacturing PMI recorded 50 in January8 Unchanged from the previous month
The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2024, released on February 1, recorded 508 Unchanged from the previous monthFor the first time since June 2021, the index has been in expansion territory for three consecutive months. This trend is not in line with the official PMI data, which was released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for January 2024 when the manufacturing PMI was recorded at 492, an increase of 02 percentage points. Judging from the sub-indices of Caixin's manufacturing PMI, the rise and fall accounted for half of the total. As the macro policy continues to exert force in the direction of stable growth, the economic stability and improvement trend remains unchanged, which is good for the steel industry.
2 Ministry of Finance: This year, we will make good use of the treasury bond funds and appropriately increase the scale of investment within the budget
The Ministry of Finance said that it intends to arrange the issuance of treasury bonds in advance to provide support for ensuring the necessary expenditure intensity. This year, we will make good use of the relevant treasury bond funds, continue to arrange a certain scale of local special bonds, appropriately increase the scale of investment in the budget, etc., and give full play to the amplification effect of investment. At the same time, the intensity of necessary fiscal spending will continue to be maintained in 2024. Under the moderate strengthening of fiscal policy, improving quality and efficiency, boosting market confidence and benefiting the trend of steel prices.
3 The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and signaled that it would not cut rates for the time being
The Fed left interest rates unchanged in its January decision released on the same day, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell clearly dampened hopes of a rate cut as early as March. The U.S. dollar index moved further higher, driven by Powell's overall hawkish bias and market risk aversion. It is worth noting that the phrase "the banking system is solid and resilient" was removed from the resolution, and last night, the financial reports of the New York community banks unexpectedly collapsed, and the panic of the regional banking crisis in the United States was rekindled. At present, the market expects that the probability of interest rate cuts in March is reduced, the RMB is relatively under pressure, the market sentiment has weakened, and the trend of steel is bearish.
Second, today's steel market**
1.Spot market
Today's domestic steel market is small, and the trading volume is relatively weak.
2.Workhorse
In terms of *, as of **, except for coking coal, all other varieties are the main forces**.
Steel mills adjust prices
According to incomplete statistics, there are 6 steel mills today to reduce the ex-factory of building materials, with a range of 10-20 yuan. The details are as follows:
1.Jiangsu Nangang: Thread ** down 20 yuan ton.
2.Yangtze River Iron and Steel: threads and coil snails ** down 20 yuan tons.
3.Yutian Jinzhou: wire rod ** down 10 yuan ton.
4.Tangshan Donghua: wire rod ** down 10 yuan ton.
5.Zhongyang, Shanxi: wire rod ** down 20 yuan ton.
6.Fushun New Iron and Steel: Thread, wire rod and coil snail ** reduced by 20 yuan ton.
All adjustments are inclusive of tax.
Three. Raw fuel market
Today's Imported Mine:The market of mainstream varieties of imported iron ore is temporarily stable. Affected by the weakening of macro expectations, the recent trend of iron ore is weak. The market reported that the shipment of Roy Mountain was affected due to weather factors, and the impact is expected to be 1.2 million tons per week, and the iron ore has stopped falling. At present, iron ore maintains a weak trend of supply and demand, and it is expected that the mine will run at a high level tomorrow.
Coke Today:Coke** is running steadily. With the resumption of blast furnace production in some steel mills, the shipments of coke enterprises are relatively smooth, and the coke inventory in some coke enterprises has decreased significantly. Considering that the demand for pre-holiday replenishment of steel mills still exists, coupled with the rebound of the enthusiasm of steel mills to purchase coke, coking coal will stabilize, and it is expected that the coke spot will operate steadily tomorrow.
Scrap today:Scrap** held steady declines, with a range of 10-50. Approaching the Spring Festival, steel mills began to stop production one after another, the scrap base is mostly concentrated in the next week to start the holiday, the market is becoming more and more deserted, some steel companies slightly reduce the purchase of scrap steel, the current scrap steel is in a state of no market, and it is expected that tomorrow's scrap steel will run steadily.
Billet Today:Tangshan Qian'anpu billet resources ex-factory tax reported 3570 yuan tons. The national billet market is weakening and adjusting, the snail is weak, the downstream finished products are stable and falling, the overall transaction is weak, and it is expected that the billet will run steadily and weakly tomorrow.
Fourth, Tao Xiaogang's point of view
On the macro front, Caixin China's manufacturing PMI in January was the same as the previous month, slightly better than expected; However, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and signaled that it would not cut rates for the time being, and expectations for a rate cut in March were lowered. Fundamentally, approaching the Spring Festival, the steel market and the raw fuel spot market transactions have shrunk significantly, basically in a state of price and no market, and the steel market in some areas is shipped at a low price. On the whole, the market trading atmosphere gradually fell to the freezing point, the current macro sentiment has a greater impact on the volatility, and the recent steel prices have stopped falling and stabilized. It is expected that steel prices will remain stable tomorrow, with a range of 10-20.
Information reference: Caixin, CCTV, Xinhua News Agency, Xiben Information, Lange Steel, My Steel, etc.
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