The property market in 2024 may usher in three unprecedented trends! In 2023, the high-level will take frequent actions, and more than 500 regulatory policies will be introduced in less than a year, with the purpose of encouraging everyone to buy houses and making the property market active. But what about the facts? Although the regulation is good one after another, the property market is still the same as the eggplant beaten by frost.
The property market in 2023, except for the short "spring blossoms" at the beginning of the year, the property market has been falling all the way since March. In May, some real estate companies couldn't hold on, and the original price was 190,000 per square meter of house, down to 140,000, a seven-fold discount! The result? The Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau issued a notice and fined it! It is said that it has "cut prices without authorization" and disrupted the "harmonious order" of the real estate market.
Next, the interest rate of the stock housing loan was adjusted in June, the "mortgage is not recognized" in July, the purchase restrictions were cancelled in many places in August, and the land price restrictions in land auctions were cancelled at the end of September. The news sounds better than the other, but the transaction volume of the property market is not increasing but falling, and more and more houses are listed for sale, but the house price is dead and alive. Then if you don't fall, how can you sell the house? There's no sincerity at all.
In October, Suzhou finally understood that the new house would no longer set the record price, and then, Wuxi came to a "75% off the net sign", Changshu is even more direct 62. Fold out and arrive at the house. A staff member in Suzhou said meaningfully: "Don't let the price drop? If the capital chain of the real estate company is broken, wouldn't it be a greater disaster for the unfinished building."
Can price reductions really bring about a recovery in the property market? The numbers don't lie – after a brief recovery in October, the national property market quickly fell into a cold winter in November, with transaction volumes falling sharply. The property market is in trouble, not overnight, and there are many complex factors behind it, such as the economic environment, market demand and demographic changes. China's urbanization rate is as high as 64%, coupled with the decline in people's income and birth rate, the willingness and ability to buy a house are weakening. Today, the madness of the property market is a thing of the past. Although a house still has investment value, it is the most difficult fixed asset to realize. Price reduction may be a stopgap measure, which may help developers to recoup funds in the short term, but it is still difficult to stimulate people's enthusiasm for buying houses.
All this reminds us: get ready for the big changes in the property market, which are also the three intentions of the senior management in the future.
First, let's talk about the transformation of urban villages. Seven or eight years ago, the transformation of urban villages was mainly concentrated in third- and fourth-tier cities, and at that time, more of them were renovated from old to shantytowns. However, as soon as last year's "Guiding Opinions on Actively and Steadily Promoting the Transformation of Urban Villages in Mega Cities" came out, the focus shifted to mega cities.
Why does it have to be a big city? Looking at the megacities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the urban villages are densely packed and impermeable, and some are still in the central city, which is in strong contrast with the surrounding high-rise buildings. In these places, the houses are crowded like cans, and the land use efficiency is pitiful.
Therefore, promoting the transformation of urban villages in these cities is not only to stimulate the economy and play a role in fixed investment in the short term, but also to improve people's livelihood, expand the scale of cities, and leave more space for urban development in the long run. This urban village transformation is not a small fight, involving an area of up to 13400 million square meters, basically most cities will participate in it. There are many ways to renovate, demolish and rebuild or renovate old houses to give old neighborhoods a new look. In 2022, more than 5,000 urban villages will be renovated, covering an area of more than 200 million square meters. So, if you live in a big city, you may soon be able to see the changes in the urban villages near your home.
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Second, let's talk about affordable housing. This is an important measure to stabilize people's morale and solve the housing problem of low-income groups. Affordable housing, simply put, is a low-cost house provided by the first class, so that those who can't afford to buy a house also have a place to live, and enjoy the same rights and interests as other citizens such as education and settlement. In the future, the number of such houses will increase significantly, directly solving the housing problem of low-income people.
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3. Affordable rental housing, which is a rental housing security system specially provided for the lowest income families and poor families. This kind of policy is mainly to help new citizens, young people and other groups solve the housing problem. In this way, people who go to the city to work no longer have to worry about the difficulty and high cost of renting a house.
Therefore, whether it is the transformation of urban villages or the affordable housing policy, it is to make the urban living environment more humane and rational, so that more people can enjoy the dividends of urban development.