Author |Luo QianboProduced by |Bogotá looks at the property market
According to CCTV News,On January 29, China Evergrande's liquidation case was heard again in the High Court of Hong Kong. The judge said that China Evergrande's debt restructuring plan lacked progress and the company was insolvent, so it formally ordered Evergrande to be liquidated, and the regulatory order would be dealt with in the afternoon of the same day and written reasons would be issued.
In addition, according to ** Times, a winding-up petition is a common means of debt collection in the Hong Kong legal system, and the court issues a winding-up order, that is, declaring the company to enter bankruptcy liquidation proceedings. This means that Hong Kong's capital market has ushered in the largest bankruptcy liquidation of real estate companies. Liability 2China Evergrande, which has 4 trillion yuan, has previously encountered creditors applying for liquidation, and has repeatedly expressed its intention to prepare a new debt restructuring plan in order to postpone the liquidation, but due to the slow progress of the debt restructuring plan, Evergrande was finally ordered to be liquidated by the court.
Today, as soon as this news came out, Evergrande's share price dived and fell 2087% at 0163 Hong Kong dollars, market value of only 22HK$1.8 billion. At the same time, the Hong Kong stock Evergrande Department Evergrande Automobile and Evergrande Property were suspended intraday.
Brief Analysis:
After the issuance of the above-mentioned winding-up order, the Evergrande issue was once again brought to the forefront.
Since the beginning of the autumn thunderstorm in 2021, to now, 2 years have passed, 2Under the 4 trillion days of debt, many creditors and related interested parties have carried out 7 winding-up applications in order to realize their legitimate rights and interests, and this time it has finally been formally approved by the Hong Kong High Court, which will cause a huge storm in the Evergrande system and the domestic real estate industry.
Evergrande naturally does not need to say much, the first to bear the brunt; It will also be the first case in the domestic real estate industry, which has very important reference, warning and reference value.
According to Bogo's observation of the property market, this liquidation incident will directly bring about three major problems:
1.Where will Evergrande go?
2.How can the interests of creditors and owners be reasonably and effectively balanced and protected?
3.What is the significance of the industry?
Considering that there are many problems involved in all aspects, it is difficult to say everything, today this article briefly analyzes the question of "where will Evergrande go" for your reference and exchange**.
Bogo's analysis of the property market believes that there are three major details that can be reflected:
First of all, the first question is, is this the "end of the show"?
According to today's CBN News report, its main analysis is excerpted as follows:
Being issued a winding-up order, does it mean that Evergrande is ushering in the 'end of the whole drama'? A person in the capital market told the first financial reporter that 'theoretically not, Evergrande can still file an appeal', but the liquidation procedure will not be suspended. Wong also said that after the judge issued a winding-up order, he would nominate a liquidator and take over the company's business. In this process, if Evergrande can still put forward some new restructuring plans, with the White Knights in the market, and after obtaining the support of the liquidators, it is still possible to cancel or suspend the winding-up order.
However, the industry believes that under such a huge debt of Evergrande, it is unlikely that there will be a white knight.
As of June 30, 2023, Evergrande's main revenue was approximately 1281800 million yuan, with a total net loss of 392500 million yuan; Total liabilities amounted to RMB239 trillion yuan, excluding contract liabilities of 6039 yuanAfter 800 million yuan, the debt is about 178 trillion yuan, compared with the scale of liabilities after excluding contract liabilities in 202272 trillion yuan, an increase of about 678300 million yuan. ”
As can be seen from the above, Evergrande China basically has no possibility of resurrection, and all kinds of data are not supported, and it is already cold.
Otherwise, as long as there is a little objective support, he will not go to the west like this.
However, there is one point to explain here that the "end of the whole play" here may not be the "end of the whole play" in the usual sense.
What does that mean?
Usually the "end of the whole drama" refers to the meaning of all clearance and zeroing, however, can Evergrande clear such a big hole as simply as a TV series?
The answer is no.
It can only show that "Evergrande China", a commercial and ** carrier or platform, will be zeroed, which is also the literal meaning of "liquidation".
According to the old Chinese saying, it means that life and death are boundless, and each does not owe each other. But is it possible?
What the above-mentioned CBN is talking about is not the meaning of this ultimate level.
In Bogo's opinion,After all, China wants to be deeply integrated into the world, and the land of China must be organized into a game of chess, etc., in fact, it also completely transcends the narrow angle of an Evergrande incident and has more practical value.
I won't say much about the rest, just ask one question:
The voice of the creditor can be effectively expressed, and the problem of more than 600 Evergrande owners and more than 1,000 unfinished buildings does not need to be considered?
This is obviously impossible.
As a result, in many of today's official news, the main issues are effectively isolated:
One is,The liquidation basically only involved Evergrande's offshore assets;
The second is,It only focuses on the equity of Evergrande China and other related platforms, and will not touch on core issues such as domestic delivery guarantees;
The third is,Millions of owners don't need to panic, there are state forces to help you wait.
Therefore, Bo Ge felt that this was an unfinished game, and the story behind it would have to go on until it was safe to set things right.
Secondly, the second question is, will the Evergrande industry be dismembered?
Will real estate, property, automobiles and other industries be dismembered by creditors because of this incident?
According to Bogo's observation of the property market, this liquidation incident will have a profound impact on other industrial sectors, which is inevitable, but to be completely dismembered, such as the biological world, it is difficult to do, and it will not be dealt with simply, after all, Evergrande's Jinbi property and automobiles, in the deepening of various related industries in China, still have a lot of objective value, historically, as long as it does not touch the fundamental and related red lines of the country and society, it will basically not break their table, and will not simply break their plate.
This is a basic rule in the law of social and industrial development.
In view of this, in Evergrande's three core industrial systems, the real estate sector has been pointed out by Wanfu, decayed, and terminally ill for a long time, and has caused many social problems.
Otherwise, many real estate companies will take Evergrande and Boss Xu as their masters, and they will go at every turn"Familialization and out-of-house interests + domestication of debts and problems"., and caused the tragic scene of "Xumen wine and meat stink, and there are frozen bones on the road", which the people of the country could not accept, and was scolded by all generations.
Returning to the main purpose of this section, one-size-fits-all dismemberment is impossible and unnecessary, and it is necessary to think comprehensively to determine the next disposal path of major industries, which cannot be solved in a short period of time, and there is a long way to go.
Therefore, Bogot feels that this is still an open game, not so simple.
Finally, the third question is, what can be learned from the real estate industry?
Evergrande and Xu Jiayin and other events, in China's history, the trend of the times and the industrial cycle and other rapid transformation path, Bo Ge believes that this is no longer a relatively single problem in a certain era or industry, in fact, it is already calling for the essence of Chinese culture and business.
Why?
The sage said that the law of man is the law of the earth, the law of the earth, the law of the heaven, and the law of the heaven, the earth and the way of the earth, and the harmony between heaven and earth and man can carry forward the past and forge ahead into the future.
There is only one place where you can always be safe, and there is none.
Even those masters with clear hearts, their shelter will be disturbed by the cycle of the four seasons, wind, frost, rain and snow, etc., and a small ant cannot escape the soaking of rain under the eaves.
Its core law is that under the general framework of heaven, earth and man, only individuals under the times and corresponding trends, who want to use the power of mayflies to harden the general trend and rules, have all passed out, without exception.
If you want to know the destiny of heaven, please go and experience it.
If we can fully and deeply understand these concepts, we can achieve a more generous state of lifting weight and not taking things as if they were light, not being happy with things, not being sad about ourselves, and being light and light.
The mind is different, the world is different, this is omitted.
If you understand, you will understand, and there is no other.
In a word, the revelation is, and here is a brief description:
All businesses and industries have related constraints, don't always feel that you are very good;
All stories in the world are only witnesses of the times, please do not be domineering to stir up the wind and rain;
All changes in the industry are the current trajectory, and behind them are rapidly changing.
The above summary may be more subtle, I wonder if you can resonate with Bogo?
I won't say much about the specific revelations, and I'll talk about it when I have time.
Words are endless, meanings are endless, and it has always been so.
Write at the end:
In view of today's liquidation of Evergrande, there are different angles of analysis, which is understandable.
There are many different kinds of sounds, each with its own subtlety.
However, according to Bogo's exclusive thinking on the property market, many news and comments do not reach the scope of the essence.
Of course, in this Bogotá statement a point:
Every look has its own value, and it is worth understanding and thinking about, which can gradually complete the content of your thinking.
This article is just an idea from the perspective of Bogo, and it is just a reference dimension for you, nothing more.
If you believe partially, you will be dark, and if you listen to it, you will be clear, please choose between them.
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