2023 is coming to an end, as for how the year went, it will also pass, for real estate, can 2024 have a good start, and can real estate gradually recover with the improvement of the economy in the coming year?
Looking back on the past and looking forward to the future, what will the real estate market show us in 2024?
Since 2016, when the positioning of the house is for living, not for speculation, the overall situation has been decided, which is not a short-term real estate idea, but a tone that determines the long-term future. Although real estate has encountered difficulties in the short term, sometimes it will be emphasized, sometimes it will not be mentioned, but whether it is mentioned or not, it cannot change the determination of real estate to return to residential attributes.
The economic work conference did not mention it, but the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development lightly mentioned that in fact, the current task is to restore real estate, but this bottom line still has to be kept, so in that thought, there will be more real estate policies in 2024, and this degree must be grasped, which is also the root of future real estate policies.
If the positioning of real estate has not changed, then the stable pattern of real estate will still dominate the property market in the future. Regardless of whether it is a first-class city or a declining city, stability is the goal and direction. Including stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations, housing prices should ensure that they will not rise and fall sharply.
Gradually give full play to the positive role of the steady and healthy development of real estate in stabilizing the macroeconomic situation. In the short term, the industry will not have a V-shaped reversal after the previous policy stimulus, and in the longer term, the scale may show an L-shaped recovery trend in the future.
At present, only a few second-tier cities have not been fully liberalized, and the current main entanglement is whether the first-tier cities will relax restrictive policies, including purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, loan restrictions, price restrictions, etc. Looking ahead to 2024, there is room for first-tier cities to continue to optimize regulation, such as directly or indirectly deregulating suburban areas.
If the current policy deployment is followed, the first-tier cities are likely to usher in a small spring. After the announcement of the favorable policy at the end of December, the number of visits to the sales office of new houses and the number of second-hand houses have increased. Certainly not as good as expected.
Therefore, we must continue to observe the relevant transaction data, and there will be a small spring in the first quarter at the earliest, but this also depends on the follow-up policy optimization of first-tier cities.
In 2024, with the further easing of real estate policies, under the premise of the implementation of financial support policies, the credit repair of real estate enterprises is expected to accelerate, thereby promoting the stabilization and recovery of demand. This is also the basis for ensuring the delivery of real estate enterprises.
No matter how hard they try, the end of real estate is the buyer, and only when the confidence of the buyer is restored and their future income expectations are enhanced, they will buy a house, which is also the cornerstone of the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
It is believed that in 2024, more cities will cancel the upper limit of land prices and resume the land auction model of "the highest price wins", which will improve the confidence of real estate companies in acquiring land. However, on the whole, there is also a clear differentiation between cities and between urban regions.
8. The reform of the pre-sale system of commercial housing will be accelerated.
As we all know, a big problem hindering real estate is the pre-sale of off-plan housing, and the bell must be tied to the bell, and the state has emphasized that it will strengthen the supervision of pre-sale funds and accelerate the reform of the pre-sale system. Then, in 2024, the country will promote the coexistence of pre-sale and existing sales, so as to gradually turn to existing house sales, which is the inevitable development of the market and an important part of the new real estate development model in the future.
Although this is the general trend, it is not the point in the short term. There is a high probability that the real estate tax pilot will not be expanded.
Housing difficulties include not only the difficulty of buying a house, but also the difficulty of renting a house, as well as the difficulty of having a house but the house is too old. Therefore, the state proposes to promote the "three major projects" to build a new real estate model. In 2024, we will continue to promote the construction of affordable housing, the reconstruction and construction of urban villages, and the construction of basic public facilities for both ordinary and emergency purposes. To solve the problem of buying and renting houses for young people and new citizens, it is also necessary to improve the management mechanism of the whole life cycle of the house.