Since the beginning of the year, while many rights and interests have been released from purchase restrictions, there are still many bonds. According to the data, as of January 9, more than 120 bond-based products have suspended large-scale subscriptions or suspended subscriptions since 2024, and some of them have reduced the upper limit of the purchase limit to 10 yuan. A number of industry insiders said that many bond-based products have recently been "closed doors", mainly to control the scale of the product, so as to protect the interests of the first holder and the smooth operation of the product. Looking ahead, from the perspective of fundamentals, capital and policy, the negative factors of the bond market are relatively limited. Among them, interest rates may have room to fall in the first quarter, and the "bull steep" may continue. Intensive purchase restrictions on the bond baseThere is a daily purchase limit of 10 yuanAt the beginning of the new year, another "window **" appeared. According to the announcement issued by CEIBS Xingli a few days ago, in order to further ensure the stable operation of CEIBS Xingli bond investment and safeguard the interests of share holders, the company has decided to reduce the daily subscription limit of A and C shares to 10 yuan (exclusive) from January 8, 2024 (inclusive). 
It is understood that the large-amount subscription limit for this product was adjusted in August 2022, and the daily subscription limit at that time was 100 yuan (exclusive). Wind data shows that CEIBS Xingli was established in September 2015 and has maintained a relatively stable income return since its establishment. As of January 9, CEIBS Xingli returned 021%, with a return of 5 over the past year31% with a total return of 47 since inception72% with an annualized return of 481%, ranking among the best in its class. As of the end of the third quarter of 2023, the total size of this ** is 401.5 billion yuan. 
In addition to CEIBS Xingli, there have been many high-performance bond bases since January, such as Hongta Laterite Ruijing A and C shares have been suspended from January 2, with a daily subscription limit of 500 yuan. GF Central Enterprises 80 Bond Index D shares have been suspended from January 3, with a daily subscription limit of 1,000 yuanA and C shares will be limited to 100,000 yuan per day from January 8. According to the data, as of January 9, more than 2,000 bond-based products in the market were suspended or suspended for large-scale subscriptions. Among them, in addition to CEIBS Xingli, there are Donghai Xiangrui, CITIC Prudential Wenhong, and Donghai Xiangli pure bonds, and more than 70 products with a subscription limit of 100 yuan, and more than 260 products with a subscription limit of between 1,000 yuan and 50,000 yuan. In addition, the top 10 bond-based products with returns in the past year are currently in a state of suspension of subscription or suspension of large-amount subscription. In this regard, a ** company in Beijing said that the purchase of bond-based products has been restricted, and some are restricted from large-scale purchases in order to control the scale and ensure the smooth operation of the productsSome are because there is a dividend plan, and in order to protect the interests of ** holders, purchase restrictions have been taken. A public offering person in Shanghai also said that the holders of some bond-based products are mainly institutions, and in order to achieve the established investment income goals and risk appetite of institutional funds, such ** may also be restricted from purchasing. "Cattle steep**" may be extendedLooking back on 2023, the bond market as a whole has performed well, and bond** is also favored by funds. According to the data of Tianxiang Investment Advisors, as of the end of the third quarter of 2023, the scale of bond** will reach 833 trillion yuan, an increase of 148.9 billion yuan from the end of the second quarter, the largest increase in scale among all types, and an increase of 271.2 billion yuan compared with last year. Since the beginning of 2024, the bond market** has continued to strengthen. On January 9, the 30-year Treasury bond** hit another record high, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell below 25%, a five-year low. Looking forward to 2024, CEIBS** said that this round of downside will start from ultra-long-term bonds and gradually pass to the long-end and short-term ends. At present, the 10-year treasury bond has broken through the previous low, and the short-end has also made up for the rapid rise. At present, the capital is loose, the overall bond market is friendly, and the interest rate in the first quarter may have room to fall, and the "bull steep" may continue. China Life Security** believes that on the whole, the current interest rate cut transaction is still the main logic of the market. At present, real interest rates are still high, inflation is low, ** In the tone of monetary policy set by the economic work conference, more emphasis is placed on inflation, and the expectation of monetary policy easing is gradually heating up. In the future, it is necessary to observe whether monetary easing can be realized;In addition, it is necessary to observe the promotion and implementation of stable growth policies, including the introduction of PSL and changes in real estate policies. "After the New Year's Eve, under the influence of negative factors such as a large number of net withdrawals from the central bank's open market operations and the resumption of PSL, the bond market has appeared to a certain extent. This may be related to the fact that the bond market 'rushed' at the end of December last year led to a decrease in the cost performance of bond investment. Minsheng Jiayin** said that in the future, although the pressure to take profits has increased under the influence of the reduction in investment cost performance, the negative factors of the bond market are still limited from the perspective of fundamentals, funds, and policies. In the future, we should pay attention to the overall performance of the funds after the maturity of the reverse repo released a year ago, whether the expected further easing of the central bank's monetary policy can be successfully implemented, and the promotion and rhythm of the credit easing policy. Editor: Joy Review: Chen Siyang.