Author |Guo Yiming, editor|Yu Xiaoming.
*: Jufeng Investment Advisory, good ** application.
Viewpoint:The latest PMI data rebounded slightly, and the level of economic prosperity rebounded. Under the counter-cyclical adjustment, the policy continues to be released, and the economic recovery is expected to continue. At the bottom of multiple cycles, with the historically low valuation of A-shares, the current strategic allocation opportunities are highlighted. In the short term, the index once ushered in the first under the leadership of the reform of Chinese characters and state-owned enterprises, but the small and medium-sized market ** made up for the decline, which put pressure on the market again, and the index fell again to refresh and adjust to a new low. However, the sharp rise after the sharp decline in the intraday also released the signal of the final fierce battle between the long and short sides, and it is often one of the signs of the end of the stage adjustment. At present, as the economy recovers and market valuations are historically low, long-term investment value is ushered in, blue chips have a good opportunity to buy low, and small-cap stocks may gradually come to an end.
The index hit 100 points under the heavy fall
Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets both opened low, and after the opening, they went lower, and since then they have ushered in many dives, and have refreshed new intraday lows many times. During the session, the index reached a maximum of nearly 100 points, and thousands of shares once fell to the limit. However, at the time of the index decline, the large weights performed well, bringing weak support to the market. Around noon, with the sharp rise of CATL, the GEM took the lead in stopping the fall and rebounding, and then rose sharply after turning red. Under the pull of financial stocks, it mainly ushered in an improvement, and it was close to turning red several times in the intraday, and staged a counterattack in the intraday. On the disk, food and beverage, banking, beauty care and coal performed well, while most sectors declined, media, environmental protection and social services were once **, light manufacturing, real estate and computers fell sharply, and most sectors had varying degrees**.
The rare 1,000-stock drop limit was staged again, and the market sentiment was extremely sluggish
Throughout the day, the market sentiment continued to be sluggish after the previous 5 consecutive yin and the continuous refresh and adjustment of new lows, and the enthusiasm for longs decreased rapidly. At the same time, under the influence of the previous derivatives liquidation and the possible liquidation of financing collateral, ** ushered in a rapid decline. In this process, it once ushered in a rare tragic situation of more than 1,000 shares. On the other hand, if you pay close attention to ***, you will find that small and medium-sized caps occupy the main proportion, and this core is still mentioned earlier, and the current small and medium-sized caps are still in the process of killing performance.
In addition, throughout history, there are not many thousand-share falling limits, but there have been them. After the 1,000-share fall limit, the overall performance of the market is average. Of course, the occurrence of a large-scale fall limit is itself an irrational and extreme emotional reaction, and it is often one of the signals at the bottom of the stage. Therefore, there is no need to panic too much about the large-scale fall limit in the intraday.
Transactional factors are the main reason for irrational killing, but there is also a drag on the performance clearance
It should be mentioned that for the sharp fluctuations in the market last week and even today, many people believe that this has little to do with domestic economic fundamentals and external geopolitical disturbances, and is mainly affected by trading factors. In view of this, it should be indisputable, especially from the previous thunderstorm of derivatives to the recent crisis of liquidation of two financial institutions, and then to the collateral risk that the market is worried about, in fact, there is a greater impact of trading behavior on the market. This really doesn't have much to do with fundamentals.
However, for the small and medium-sized caps that are the main targets of the market, it actually has something to do with the fundamentals. Because we said that the current market is relatively cheap, especially the valuation has reached a historical low, but this is average, and more is that the valuation of ** stocks has reached a historical low, which is relatively cheap, but the small and medium-sized ** is actually not cheap. In particular, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are not large compared with the historical bear market, and the previous magnitude was smaller than the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes. Moreover, many small and medium-sized caps are not performing well, and the clearing is still in progress. Therefore, the large fluctuations in the market caused by the small and medium-sized market are both transactional and fundamental.
New signals are being released behind the sharp short-term volatility
It is worth noting that the market has fluctuated sharply many times recently, but the signals released before and after are slightly different. For example, a wave of rapid adjustment before January 22, stabilized on January 23 and then continued to rise, and the index quickly regained 2,900 points. And this wave of rise is a boost to policy behavior, and it is also mainly driven by the ** stocks. After the recent sharp decline in the market, today's market once counterattacked by 100 points, market behavior also appeared, and the small and medium-sized caps once led the gains, which also indicates that the focus of the stable market may have shifted to small and medium-cap stocks.
Therefore, whether it is the rebound of the index driven by the previous rise in ** stocks, or the market counterattack driven by the rise of small and medium-sized caps, it reflects the continuous emergence of forces to stabilize the market. At the same time, while the possible performance of pure national team strength, market behavior is also quietly exerting force, which may help the market stabilize after a sharp adjustment.
In short, the recent market is dominated by small and medium-sized caps, and with the continuous decline and the release of panic, the market volatility is expected to come to an end when the center of gravity of the suspected national team to stabilize the market is tilted towards the small and medium-sized caps. With the rebound of the short-term macroeconomic prosperity level, at the time of the continuous release of foreign capital and market transactions, the short-term killing and falling has basically come to an end, or it may be opened at any time. For investors, those who have previously allocated and sown on dips can still consider holding positions and patiently waiting for the arrival of the Spring Festival. And **lighter and shorter, can also be low in the band, gambling possible New Year's Eve and spring**.
Author: Guo Yiming Practicing Certificate: A0680612120002).
Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific operation advice, and you shall operate at your own risk and profit and loss.