Corn *** caused a "grain grab" boom? February 22, 2024 corn ** trend.
The spring breeze is sick, good things don't stop, and the news of the corn market is dazzling: the second batch of storage points in Jilin was announced, and the corn ** made another effort, and the overnight disk ** was 16 yuan; The recent favorable weather has led to a particularly strong bullish sentiment in the overall market. Just when everyone was rejoicing, Heilongjiang Zhaodong directly under the warehouse directly exchanged for one to the corn market"King fried"--40,000 tons of additional reserves, purchase of **2,240 yuan tons, required moisture 14, impurities 1%, imperfect granules 8%, mildew granules 2%, including vomitoxin 1,000 trace elements, purchase **2,240 yuan ton, purchase **2,240 yuan ton. Among them, vomitoxin 1000 micrograms, aflatoxin 20 micrograms, and gibberellin 60 micrograms. Corn.
Subsequently, Liaoning Changtu's direct library began to acquire at a purchase price of 145. Humidity 10984 yuan, 20 humidity 10259 yuan, 25 humidity 096 yuan; The inventory of deep processing is low, and if the warehouse is not made, the corn will soon bottom out; XX grain not only actively enters the market to buy, but also increases the grain collection! A grain in Bayan, Heilongjiang has begun unlimited purchases! The price increases"Flames"Finally ignited, that must be with the market"Grab food", the small yellow corn that is full of storage capacity in my own warehouse has been squeezed dry! The sound of price increases is endless!
The entire Northeast corn market is immersed in a joyful and self-arrogant market atmosphere, and the mood has changed from the original extreme pessimism and optimism to 180 degrees. Hello farmers and friends, on February 22, 2023, the herring capacity is more than 710 yuan 2320 tons, the capacity is more than 690 2310 yuan tons, and the capacity of Jinzhou Port is more than 710 yuan 2330 tons, acquisition**again**, southern enterprises see that the port *** began to order in a hurry, the more orders, the higher, the more, the higher, obviously, this is"！Boom"Because the crisis has come - as the saying goes, there is an opportunity in a crisis, and there is a danger in an opportunity.
In short, the point of view has always been: corn will rise, and it must rise, but it will not be the peak overnight, and it must go through nine hundred and eighty-one difficulties to get the real title deed (the most) This process is to boil, boil time, boil psychology, boil opportunities, boil cash flow. The second batch of new revenue storage points are advertised in the market, and they want to rise? Straight to the grain depot**, representative? It is 100 yuan higher than the market price, what is there to be happy about?
The Northeast market has a characteristic: shouting production reduction every year, shouting no food every year, playing a new song every year, not seeing grain when the price rises, and everyone turning up when the price falls. Are the pigs starving or the cows starving? This year, the people who sell basic grains buy very large quantities, very powerful, because they have no storage capacity, and they can close when the market rises, and as long as there is a change in sentiment in the falling market, the grain in the market will run out, and the grain can be taken out of the cracks in the stones. Unbelief? We'll see.
Shandong's deep processing enterprises, in front of the car door, directly reach more than 70 units per day, as if on a rocket, but this price increase is by air? Or by the market? Sounds good and sentimental, but is your wallet bulging? The snow has stopped, let's see again, is it up or down? At the same time, due to the lucrative profits of the company's products during the period before the Spring Festival, some enterprises that have completed deep processing and production have no time at all"Shutdown for maintenance"。Therefore, the news we have heard in the past few days is that some companies have begun to stop production and maintenance.
In the short term, the cooling of the Northeast has given everyone courage, but this courage will follow"Light up"And the thaw, because no one can stop the pace of spring, so the price is the possibility of falling, but it is not realistic to want to fall down by a large margin, after all, countless pairs of hungry wolves are lying down on the edge of the ground!
Therefore, whether it is the price of goods or the price of goods, we must be relatively objective, indifferent, there must be a fall, there must be a rise, there must be a fall, do not be there"Inner drama"Don't get too carried away, don't be too pessimistic, and don't be too optimistic -- what conforms to reality is ideal, and what is detached from reality is digging a hole for yourself. To stay away from reality is to dig a hole for yourself.
First of all, judging by the latest feed data, it seems that there will also be a decrease in feed use in March-April. Before the Spring Festival, the outflow of pigs is very large, which means that the demand for corn will be further reduced (not without here, but contraction), but at the same time we need to pay attention to the areas with the largest pig gap in the country: Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other fattening areas, piglets and other pigs If they are boosted, they will also boost the demand for corn.
In the past two years, the agricultural industry (pigs, cattle, sheep, chickens, fish) + feed industry has been in a relatively depressed situation, the essence of which is the level of production capacity - oversupply, that is, global overcapacity, in the past two years, the national agricultural sector has fed the global planting industry (whether it is corn or soybeans or other crops). On the grounds of overcapacity, neither the group nor the small and medium-sized enterprises are willing to take the initiative to eliminate themselves.
Always fantasizing"Survive the adversity"It was spring, and the nadir was formed when I entered the market"High"The combined production capacity supports them through"Winter"That's the most important thing. And support them through"Winter"The most important thing is **. When**"Stretched"or appear"Cash flow shortage"The most direct aspect is to reduce inventory: for the purchase of various raw materials, the mode of price reduction or bulk purchase is becoming more and more frequent, and the market is showing that"The demand is not good"The illusion.
To put it bluntly, the demand has always existed, and the magnitude is very large, but the mode of the demand side has undergone major changes and adjustments - as you use, as you use. On the supply side: farmers + drying towers + small and medium-sized traders continue to face it with traditional thinking"New"The way of buying and selling and the market, the result can be imagined: it is difficult.
Secondly, for corn, it is good + bad, and the good thing is that the director has been"Break the head"They wanted to leave the drying tower and enter the market, so they actively hoarded grain to maintain the market, after all, it was the largest in the entire corn market"Grain + grain depot"As long as they actively buy, the most fundamental food security problem can be solved, and the difficulty of selling grain will be easily solved, and by the way, farmers can sell more money and achieve it"Win-win"；
Worryingly, corn production has always been in excess of demand, and it is even more difficult to change this situation in the short term. The main reason is that the peasants' ability to fight against the market is improving, and the fundamental reason for this improvement is that"Silver", whether it is going out to work or the profits brought by the special trip for three years + the suddenness of this year, it makes the stress reaction unsuitable + not recognized + unwilling to significantly reduce the price of emotional changes, so there are various changes such as farmers threshing grain + drying grain + insured grain + piling grain to cope with reducing their losses or profits. Change to cope with the reduction of their own losses or profits + grain price protection + grain stacking and other changes to cope with the reduction of their own losses or profits.
The base drying tower and small and medium-sized ** merchants seem to be very"into the play"But they forgot the first three years of corn **, not only did they not take advantage of the situation to make money, but they also lost money vividly, in this case, they want to store grain is basically their own funds, the use of tripartite funds is not only limited, and no one wants to use a large amount, which leads to the storage of grain is belonging"Twists and turns"type. Although"Shorty"The large refrigeration gives them enough solid courage, but this courage is divided into several types:
If a person has a contract order, he will naturally actively acquire it, but he will not take stock, and it is more difficult to make them take stock than to climb to the sky;
us"Keep your head down and work hard"In other words, we are collecting, but the direction of progress is unknown, and we will talk about it when we are done;
It is better to fail than to make mistakes, and only when you see a profitable opportunity will you enter;
One is to put low-priced grain at hand and wait for the market to sell as long as it meets psychological expectations;
One is strongly optimistic about the market outlook, the other is rhetorical, the so-called"Giants of thought, elves of action"；
6) One is to take"Channel inventory"Too low, as corn **should**, but forget the essence of low: first, lack"Silver", the second is the enterprise"Survival"of"Self-protection mechanisms"。
vii) Someone is not optimistic about the Northeast market, chooses to go to North China to accumulate stocks, and then struggles with the future of corn**.
Lin Lin's various mentalities and actions show that the largest acquirer in the market has the market in mind"Fear"Heart = limited funds + no big expectations, the heart of **straight line**, see that there is a profit, will quickly sell grain, it will be a few days to press the market. The conclusion is: corn surplus grain + grain sales time is extended.
Third, on the other hand, whether the deep processing enterprises are profitable, volatile losses or unprofitable, they have changed the operation methods of grain collection + grain storage: low inventory + more drops, less rises. Low inventory in North China is their usual operating method, based on geographical location + capacity constraints + profit model. This year, in the Northeast, all deep processing enterprises in Shandong have replicated inventory levels for about 2 months, which makes them"Be braver"because farmers and grain merchants are seeing the change.
Therefore, no matter what time it is, there will be no shortage of corn in the enterprise, which is the result of a bumper yield + extended sales time. This year, the Northeast market will see a large amount of corn in April, a large amount of corn in May, and a large amount of corn in June. Personal opinions, for reference only, where it is wrong, it is all nonsense.
Hebei Guangyu starch: net weight of more than 20 tons is 1185 yuan, and the net weight of more than 20 tons is 1175 yuan, an increase of 5 points.
Shandong Hengren Industry and Commerce: 12 yuan, **5 points.
Shandong Ronghai Grain and Oil: 1$22,**1 point.
Shandong Tianli Pharmaceutical: 1192 yuan, **5 points.
Shandong Mengneng Biotechnology: 1215 yuan, plus 5 cents.
Shandong Fuyang Biological:1205 RMB, plus 1 point.
Shandong Haoyouduo Biology: 1205 yuan, **1 point.
Shandong Shouguang**corn: 1195 yuan, **5 points.
Shandong Linqing Dejin Corn: 1$18,**5 points.
Shandong Xiangrui Pharmaceutical: 14 20 moisture 119 yuan, 20 or more moisture 11.18 yuan, down 7 points.
Shandong Yishui Land: 1215 yuan for 23 moisture, 1195 yuan for more than 23 moisture, plus 5 points.
Shandong Fuguan Biological: 17 humidity or more 121 yuan, 17 22 humidity 12 yuan, 22 humidity or more 1$19, plus 1 point.
Shandong Dazecheng Biology: Moisture below 20 1175 yuan, moisture 20 25 1165 yuan, moisture 25 or more 1$145 plus 5 cents.
Shandong Chengwu Land: 165. Humidity below 118 yuan, 20 humidity below 117 yuan, 20 25 humidity 116 yuan, 25 humidity or more 1$135 plus 5 cents.
Liaoning Changtu Grain Reserve: 145. Moisture 10984 yuan, 20 moisture 10259 yuan, 25 moisture 096 yuan, start the acquisition.
Jilin Huagang Biochemical Co., Ltd. *** third class 2180 yuan ton.
Jilin Dahao Biological: 2180 yuan ton for the second grade, 2160 yuan for **2160 yuan, up 20 yuan.
Jilin Fuyu Cargo Station: 2,210 yuan ton for first class, 2,190 yuan ton for second class, and 2,170 yuan ton for third class.
Jilin Changling Shaojia Grain**: 145. Moisture 1095 yuan, 18 moisture 10471 yuan, 20 moisture 10174 yuan.
Jilin Grain Trade Baicheng *** 15 moisture 1072 yuan, a total of 2 per ton144 yuan, 18 moisture 1033 yuan, 22 moisture 0978 yuan, 27 moisture 0905 yuan, capacity requirements, mildew, impurities.
Songling Grain Storage, Songyuan City, Jilin Province***145. Moisture 1075 yuan, 18 moisture 10299 yuan, 20 moisture 10041 yuan, 25 moisture 09272 yuan. Mildew, impurities, humidity over 26 are required to be returned.
Heilongjiang Yanbian Xiangyu: 30 bean curd 0$83, plus 5 points.
Heilongjiang Nehe Xiangyu: 30 g 0$83, plus 5 points.
Heilongjiang Beian Xiangyu: 30 g 0$825, plus 1 point.
Heilongjiang Hongan Group: 30 Humidity 0805 yuan, flat.
Heilongjiang Hongzhan Group Huainan Factory: 30 Humidity 0815 yuan, official purchase.
Heilongjiang Suihua Haotian: 14 moisture 1045 yuan, 30 moisture 08444 yuan, plus 5 points.
Heilongjiang Xinhecheng Biological: 14 moisture 104 yuan, 30 moisture 08403 yuan, plus 1 point.
Heilongjiang Nehe Grain Group: 14 moisture 1046 yuan, 30 moisture 083 yuan, 35 moisture 074 yuan, up 1 point.