When I woke up, I found that a policy to stimulate the purchase restriction of the real estate market jointly issued by the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Housing Authority triggered heated discussions on the Internet, once again arousing everyone's attention and discussion on the development of the real estate market.
The Notice on Optimizing the Housing Purchase Restriction Policy jointly issued by the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Housing Management Bureau stipulates that starting from January 31, non-registered residents of Shanghai who have paid social insurance or individual income tax for five consecutive years or more can purchase one house in areas outside the outer ring (except Chongming District). It remains to be seen what the effect of the policy will be....
After the epidemic, whenever the future of the real estate market is discussed, from policy makers, to corporate participants, to those who want to buy a house, they all feel helpless! No matter how exciting it is, it doesn't seem to help, and the reasons for it all make sense! Is it really a market failure? Apparently not. If the real estate market wants to rise again, it needs to deal with three basic issues, and the following is the author's humble opinion, and the analysis is so.
The first fundamental issue is the positioning of the development of the real estate market. With the development of the real estate market, the country's positioning is that "houses are for living, not for speculation", which is not in doubt. However, the background of the introduction of this positioning, we must not forget, that is, let the majority of the low-income class also have a house to live in, because of the development of the real estate market after the opening of the real estate market for decades, it is not difficult to find that the urban low-income class is dragged down by the housing problem, the high-income class takes the opportunity to speculate on the house and raise the price, and the middle-income class does not hesitate to buy a house with high-interest loans. Then the rapid development of the real estate market has brought about many social, political, economic, operational and other risks such as the follow-up credit bubble crisis, overheated real estate consumption, intensified dependence on local land finance, the widening gap between the rich and the poor in urban areas, and the expansion of real estate enterprises.
The new crown epidemic in 2020 almost brought the world economy to a halt, and the real estate industry was no exception. Under the heavy blow of the epidemic, the multiple risks mentioned above have been superimposed, resulting in a slump in the real estate market after the epidemic, and the future is uncertain. Investors and demanders have turned into wait-and-seeers, and only local governments are sparing no effort to introduce stimulus policies, all looking for a way out of the financial dilemma expected by post-land finance!
The key to solving the above problems lies in removing the false and retaining the true. For those who just need it, most of them are low-income people in urban areas, and they must intervene to ensure that the "just needs" have a house to live in, and smooth and absorb market premiums through various means such as joint property rights, low-rent housing, and centralized procurement; For the improvers, most of them are middle and high income groups, the market must intervene, and they must withdraw, play a leading role in the market, and let go of all restrictions on house purchases except for political factors, so that developers, investors and home buyers can play market games and decide on the way to trade.
The second fundamental issue is the role of the development of the real estate market. The real estate market has played a role in the engine of China's rapid economic growth for many long periods of time in the past, in fact, it plays the role of the best investment product", in the next real estate market development, for the middle and high-income classes, this role will continue to play, and even introduce investors from Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and some friendly countries! However, in order to achieve the high-quality development of the real estate market, it is difficult to adhere to and maintain the one-man show for a long time, and it is necessary to strengthen the second role, that is, the role of urbanization. This role includes two sub-roles: the urbanization role and the rural revitalization role. Maybe you will think that the author is singing a high profile, but in fact, urbanization construction only relies on the first to promote the long way to go, and can be appropriately accelerated with the help of market means, which can not only solve the problem of shortage of funds and insufficient budget, but also solve the problem of low efficiency of administrative mode.
In fact, China's urbanization process is driven by the cross-regional housing purchase of high-income classes and the flow of college students. On the one hand, the rich people in the towns usually go to the county to buy real estate, the rich people in the county usually go to the provincial capital to buy real estate, and the rich people in the provincial capital usually go to the first-tier cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou to buy industries; On the other hand, the college entrance examination has changed the fate of many people, the college entrance examination system has allowed many people to move from rural areas to cities, from small counties to big cities, and then take root and settle down. Therefore, the re-emergence of the real estate market needs to be promoted, enterprises participated, and the middle and high-income classes intervened, playing a good role in urbanization construction, and achieving a win-win situation for all parties, so as to truly achieve high-quality and sustainable development of the real estate market.
The third basic issue is the guarantee of the development of the real estate market. The healthy development of the real estate market is also inseparable from the healthy development of upstream and downstream industries and related industrial markets as support and guarantee. This kind of correlation guarantee is mainly reflected in the following four aspects:
Housing issues and population issues are closely linked. Which city has the greatest efforts to attract population and talents, which city's real estate market activity and potential will be greater, which has been confirmed by the development practice of the eastern region and the developed coastal areas;
Housing and education are closely linked. The school district housing can not be reduced in the short term, unless the distribution of educational resources is reasonable and fair, therefore, a large part of the land revenue budget should be earmarked, taken from, used in! It is used to improve the construction of home buyers' community education, pension, medical care and other facilities, so as not to let home buyers and investors feel deceived, otherwise, this will wipe out the only remaining confidence in the real estate market!
The housing problem is closely related to the industrial layout. Shenzhen's development from a small fishing village to a world-class metropolis is from the industrial layout, Ningde City due to the rise of the new energy industry giant CATL and develop and grow, talents, capital, technology will inevitably bring about the huge release of real estate market potential;
Housing issues are closely linked to urban openness. But where there is a high degree of development, the real estate market is bound to be full of stamina, and vice versa! The reform and opening up policy will bring better development expectations and personnel mobility to the city, which will bring investment prospects and expectations to real estate investors and home buyers, and will inevitably activate the local real estate market and promote the sustainable development of the local real estate market. Some free trade zones, free ports, and reform experimental zones are proof of this, and if it were not for policy intervention, the price increase in these free trade zones and free ports would have far exceeded expectations.
All in all, the healthy development of the real estate market is the core link of the sustainable and healthy development of the modern market economy, and it is impossible to bypass it, perhaps to solve a blockage in the development of the real estate market, the difficulty will bring new pain points, the lesser of two evils, we can only face the difficulties, the soldiers will block, and the water will cover the earth. There seems to be no other way to solve the problem of the development of the real estate market only in the course of development, and to solve the problem of the reform of the real estate market in the course of reform. As the saying goes, "the land can be land, very much; The room can be a room, and the room is very room"!