"Jia Ling Concept Stock" Keep has been saved?
Author |Zhou Tong.
Edit |Fun about business.
Jia Ling deadlifted 120 kilograms and followed Jia Ling to play pear balls, and after watching the hot and hot sports, she was full of enthusiasm
Jia Ling, who is one hundred pounds a year, not only helped "Hot and Hot" successfully top the box office champion of the Spring Festival stalls, but also ignited the enthusiasm of the whole people for fitness, and sent one topic after another about fitness to the hot search.
Affected by this, KEEP (3650., which is known as "the first stock of sports technology in China".HK) has also attracted the attention of investors, and its performance is reflected in the consumer market and capital market, and it has also been nicknamed "Jia Ling concept stock" by many netizens.
Screenshot of Weibo.
It is worth mentioning that Keep also announced its share repurchase plan on February 14, and once the news was released, Hong Kong stocks rose by more than 15% after the opening of the market on the same day, * to 3HK$90 shares; On February 15, it rose and fell back to a new low of 3After 450 Hong Kong dollars, the 16th ** rose by 3247%, closed at 5HK$140 shares. On February 19, the stock price was again **7%, closing at 5HK$50 shares.
But the good times did not last long, after the opening of Hong Kong stocks on February 20, Keep stopped rising for two consecutive days; As of the day**, the company's stock price was at 5HK$3 shares,**364%, the company's total market capitalization is about 27HK$8.6 billion.
Screenshot of Oriental Fortune.
Since August 2023, Keep's share price has hit a record of 42After the high point of 40 Hong Kong dollars, it has been ** for 6 consecutive months, and the maximum decline has reached 9186%；In addition to the factors of the macro market environment, the decline in revenue and the decrease in profits have become the fuse of Keep's continuous performance. Since its landing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 12, 2023, it has been listed for less than a year, what happened to keep? After Jia Ling brought the fire to the "** track", was Keep "saved"?
Although Jia Ling has repeatedly emphasized that "Hot and Hot" is not a movie about **, the fact is that "Jia Ling**100 pounds" is indeed the biggest marketing selling point of this movie, and it is also a hot topic in the fitness circle recently.
The birth of Keep is also because of **.
At the beginning of 2014, Wang Ning, who was studying at Beijing Information Science and Technology University, was abandoned by his girlfriend and made up his mind to **; After that, Wang Ning spent more than 6 months and successfully reduced his weight from 180 kilograms to 130 kilograms.
Witnessing Wang Ning's changes, the students who had the best needs began to come to him one after another to ask for advice; Wang Ning sensed a business opportunity: why can't you make a product to spread the knowledge of sports and ** more widely and help more people?
Canned Gallery.
Wang Ning, who had an idea, went around looking for investors with a product prototype map. It's time,According to WHO statistics, China has become the world's second largest obese country, with 46 million ** "obese" and 300 million "overweight".；In this context, the first-class industry with a total scale of 300 billion yuan and an annual growth rate of more than 20% is receiving more and more attention.
As early as 2013, Zehou Capital, which invested in a "love thin" app, was very optimistic about this track, so he invested 3 million yuan in Wang Ning as an angel investment; Soon, on February 4, 2015, the Keep App was launched just before the Spring Festival.
Unlike the "Love Thin" app, Keep does not focus entirely on **, but focuses on those who want to exercise but don't have time to go to the gym and don't know how to work out properly. Keep arranges all kinds of standard training plans according to the scene, fitness purpose, and whether there is equipment, and records them as ** for display, so that users can complete the workout anytime and anywhere according to the app.
Accurate positioning, coupled with completely free of charge, Keep gained millions of users in only 105 days after it was launched; Subsequently, it quickly completed four rounds of financing with a total of more than $50 million, and even Tencent became its shareholder.
Screenshot of it orange.
In March 2017, Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, who loves fitness, personally visited this "representative of the excellent app in the App Store" when he visited Beijing, and put Keep in the spotlight; In August of that year, Keep officially announced that the number of registered users exceeded 100 million, becoming the first sports app in China with more than 100 million users. After that, with the favor of capital, Keep received multiple rounds of financing, and successfully landed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 12, 2023, at an issue price of 2892 Hong Kong dollars per share, the company's market value reached 15 billion Hong Kong dollars.
With the support of huge financing, the number of users and revenue has increased year by year, but Keep has still not achieved profitability. According to its prospectus,Between 2019 and 2022, Keep's adjusted net loss was 3., respectively6.6 billion yuan, 10.6 billion yuan, 82.7 billion yuan, 66.7 billion yuan, a total of 196.6 billion yuan.
As a sports and fitness app, Keep's revenue mainly comes from three aspects.
The first is advertising revenue, which is also the most basic means of monetization of APP products, the more users the greater the advertising value. The second is product sales, from fitness clothing to equipment and even accessories, as long as it is related to sports and health, almost all of them are within the scope of Keep's sales; This is also Keep's main means of monetization, accounting for nearly half of its revenue, so it is also nicknamed an "online sports supermarket" in the coat of technology.
Screenshot of Keep App.
It is worth mentioning that driven by Jia Ling and her movie "Hot and Hot", the public's enthusiasm for fitness has increased significantly recently; According to "Fun Solution Business", during the Spring Festival holiday, keep Tmall bicycle increased by 219% month-on-month, and rope skipping increased by 487% month-on-month82%, and yoga mats increased by 182 month-on-month45%, and kettlebells increased by 325 month-on-month74%。
Although the revenue from selling goods supports half of Keep's revenue, some market participants pointed out that Keep's own brand does not have much advantage compared with Xiaomi and Huawei in terms of **, chain, quality control, and channels.
Canned Gallery.
There are also paid courses and paid memberships, which are also regarded as a "competitive advantage" by the Keep team. According to "Fun Solution Business", at the beginning of Keep's establishment, there were sports apps with similar functions, as well as "Gudong" and "Yue Running Circle", the latter two of which have considerable influence among the running crowd; But in terms of fitness, those who are willing to put a lot of effort into making original **, Keep is second to none. With this advantage, in 2018, Keep launched a membership system and selected some courses that require payment**; After several years of development, the income from this part has basically caught up with the income from the sale of products.
According to the data of the 2023 semi-annual report, Keep's revenue from "private label sports products" is 46.6 billion yuan, "membership subscription and ** paid content" income of 44.9 billion yuan, "advertising and others" income 06.9 billion yuan, of which the proportion of "membership subscription and paid content" revenue to total revenue reached 4563%, an all-time high.
However, although the proportion of revenue from "membership subscriptions and paid content" is increasing, Keep's advantage seems to be gradually weakening; The direct threat to it is not vertical apps such as Dingdong and Yuepaoquan, but social platforms such as Douyin, Bilibili, and Xiaohongshu
Screenshot of Xiaohongshu.
It's also fitness**, why do you have to go to keep? For example, Douyin, which has a large number of creators, has many fitness KOLs on the platform, and in order to attract the attention of users, most of them will take out their "housekeeping skills" and use free "dry goods" to attract fans.
Jia Ling mentioned many fitness KOLs such as "Kaisheng King" and "Brother Meng's Talk about Fat Loss" in the roadshow of the "Hot and Hot" movie, and praised them; Liu Jia, the physical fitness coach who helped Jia Ling complete the **, also took advantage of the popularity of this movie to register his own Douyin account to share dry goods, and attracted 100,000 fans in just a few days.
Screenshot of Douyin.
These high-quality KOLs are also the resources that Keep wants to introduce. The content produced by these KOLs is called the "PUGC (Professional User Generated Content) content model"; According to the data in the Keep prospectus, the number of PUGC courses on the Keep platform has increased from 140 at the end of 2019 to 17,800 by the end of 2022, which is an important part of the content ecosystem. Despite this, compared to social platforms such as Douyin, the number is still far behind.
In addition, according to Keep's cooperation model, even if the top KOLs choose to settle in, it is difficult to ensure the "uniqueness" of the content provided. Take Pamela Reif, the fitness super IP that Keep has officially promoted, as an example, although there are also some "exclusive courses", but the **and** teaching instructions of many fitness courses can be watched for free on their own YouTube, Xiaohongshu and other platforms. After all, compared with platforms such as Douyin, which often have seven or eight billion daily active users, the traffic and income that Keep can bring to KOLs are very limited.
Screenshot of Xiaohongshu.
Perhaps it is precisely because of this that Keep users' willingness to pay has always been low, according to the prospectus, its average monthly subscribers hit 415 during the epidemic in the third quarter of 2021After the high point of 40,000 people, it has never grown; By the time of the 2023 semi-annual report, it has dropped to 30170,000 people.
At the same time, the number of monthly active users of Keep has declined, according to the data of the 2023 semi-annual report, the average monthly active users have increased from 3435 in 202180,000 people, down to 2,95490,000 people. This also directly affects Keep's other two revenues.
Screenshot of Keep's financial report.
In the first half of 2023, Keep's revenue from private label sports products was 46.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 95%, advertising and other revenues, is a direct decrease of 214%, down to 44.9 billion yuan.
Screenshot of Keep's financial report.
In comparison, "membership subscriptions and online paid content" has achieved a 10% increase, but the number of membership subscribers is decreasing, why is this revenue increasing? This has to mention another important income of Keep, which is known as Keep's "selling medals" by the outside world.
In recent years, more and more marathons have been held in China, and the number of horse races has grown rapidly. According to the rules of the marathon, as long as the race can be completed within the specified time, participants can receive a commemorative medal issued by the organizer; Although the medal is not of high value, it is quite meaningful to the individual. Inspired by this, "Goodong" was the first to initiate this model and introduce this model online, and launched a variety of "online marathons" with a lot of brains.
As long as users pay fees ranging from 39 yuan to 59 yuan to sign up for online sports events released by Keep, such as running, race walking, cycling, rope skipping and other sports, they can get physical medals designed and awarded by Keep after achieving the corresponding sports goals, including medals, badges, bracelets, etc. The ingenious design and the ritualistic acquisition method have attracted a large number of users to participate in it; On Xiaohongshu, some people often post that they have collected hundreds of Keep medals to show off, and even on second-hand platforms such as Xianyu, there is also information about the purchase and trading of Keep medals.
Screenshot of Xiaohongshu.
is such an inconspicuous revenue project, which has now become an important profit point for Keep, and even the news that "Keep sold medals and earned 500 million yuan" was once circulated on the Internet.
Although Keep has said that it did not earn 500 million yuan by selling medals, according to its prospectus, in the eight months including the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first five months of 2022, the number of paying users participating in Keep's virtual event activities exceeded 1.1 million, and the total merchandise transaction exceeded 50 million yuan. In addition, its prospectus shows that in 2022, when the offline running activities were completely suspended due to the epidemic, its "online paid content" revenue reached 33.1 billion yuan, a three-fold year-on-year increase, even exceeding advertising revenue.
It is worth mentioning that searching for the keyword "keep" on the "black cat complaint" platform, as of February 21, there were 23,586 related complaints, many of which were related to the automatic deduction of keep, slow delivery of medals and other issues.
Source: Screenshot of Black Cat's complaint.
In the 2023 semi-annual report, although Keep did not list the specific revenue data of "online paid content", it also saidThe 10% year-on-year increase in "membership subscriptions and online paid content" was not due to an increase in membership subscriptions, but was "mainly due to an increase in revenue generated by virtual sports events" and "an increase of approximately 30% in average revenue per paying user per virtual sports event compared to the same period in 2022".
Screenshot of Keep's financial report.
According to this unaudited semi-annual report, Keep's revenue in the first half of 2023 is 98.5 billion yuan, down 27% and an adjusted net loss of 22.3 billion yuan, with a loss rate of 227%；It was also after the release of this earnings report that Keep's stock price began to last for 6 months.
Just a week before the announcement of the share repurchase plan on February 14, 2024, Keep also issued an announcement that the former accounting firm "PwC" resigned after "friendly consultation" because it failed to "meet a mutually acceptable audit timeline" for the financial results for 2023, and the company reappointed "RSM" to replace him.
Keep's dilemma is not unique to its industry.
Zehou Capital invested in the "Love Thin" app earlier than Keep, and there is no news for a long time. "Goodong", which was established earlier than Keep, has not announced financing news since 2018; Since then, it has also "bet" on smart hardware such as sports bracelets, but after players such as Huawei and Xiaomi entered the market, the stamina was obviously insufficient.
The Yue Running Circle, which focuses on the running track, has gradually transformed itself into a tool product to serve offline running groups, providing services such as event registration and sign-in management, free ** SMS, etc.; Its CEO Liang Feng has publicly stated that compared with some pan-traffic social ** platforms, Yuepao "does not have any competitive advantage".
Screenshot of Weibo.
Even Peloton, an American interactive fitness platform that was once regarded as a role model for Keep, is having an equally difficult time; The company's stock price hit 171 in December 2020, when the pandemic hit the U.S. pandemicAfter the high of $09, the stock fell for three consecutive years and is currently only 4$54 shares, the market value has shrunk by more than 97%.
At the same time that the companies that focus on online fitness are collectively encountering difficulties, they first lay out the gym and then launched the online fitness brand "Leke", which seems to be looking for another way out for the industry.
Leke's main focus is a cost-effective community-style gym, and users can go to offline stores at any time to use various equipment for fitness by paying 239 yuan per month; If you want to be coached, you can also book a group lesson or a one-on-one private lesson through the app.
Canned Gallery.
In this model, although Leke online APP also has a community and a good one, it is fundamentally still serving offline stores, which will revitalize online traffic. According to the official propaganda of Leke, Leke has entered more than 20 cities across the country, with more than 1,000 stores, and still maintained growth in the most serious year of the epidemic. In July 2023, Leke Sports launched the "100 cities and 10,000 stores" strategy, planning to increase the number of stores to 10,000 in the next 5 years.
Under the force, keep is not without thinking. As early as 2018, before its listing, the company launched a fully self-operated offline fitness brand Keepland, and opened nearly 20 stores in Beijing, Shanghai and other places during the peak period. Perhaps because of the high operating costs, in 2021, Keepland launched the "Keep Preferred Fitness Program" to cooperate with third-party offline gyms to transform into asset-light.
Canned Gallery.
Under the new cooperation model, the offline gym provides a group exercise class venue, and Keepland is responsible for providing group class coaches and course agent operations, giving traffic support through the APP, and the two sides cooperate in operation. The initial 49 yuan group class** has brought a lot of passenger flow to Keepland; According to Keep's official announcement, it will also promote cooperation with more gyms and provide fitness classes covering more fitness categories (such as ballet and boxing).
Screenshot of the Mini Program.
However, this part of Keep's offline business is not listed separately in its prospectus, and has always been classified as "advertising and others"; In the first half of 2023, the revenue will be 69.43 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 214%。Zeng Zihao, vice president of keep, once said in an interview with **Keep has not yet found a more efficient way to match the integration of traffic and offline scenes, but the offline fitness scene is absolutely indispensable, and "all sports and fitness cannot exist apart from the physical space".
Keep once quoted a report from CIC Consulting in the prospectus, which specifically mentioned that in 2022, China has the world's largest fitness population, reaching 37.4 billion people, and it is expected to increase to 4.4 by 20276.3 billion people; At the same time, the average annual expenditure of China's fitness population in 2022 is only 25183 yuan, far lower than the average American 16,425The level of 2 yuan "shows strong growth potential".
Keep Prospectus.
In the face of this huge growth space, as well as the "splashing wealth" brought by Jia Ling's movie "Hot and Hot", who can seize this wave of opportunities, will it be Keep?
What did you think of Keep's experience? Welcome to leave a message to discuss.
Jia Ling's new movie is hot and hot