The market has been really bad lately, and a lot of people are anxious, and this anxiety is because you are disturbed by the "noise" of the market. In addition, many people ask about the situation of tourism stocks, and their personal opinion is that investment in the tourism industry needs to be treated with caution, and the current valuation is not cheap.
1. Shield the market noise and return to the essence of the company
Yesterday, more than 4,500 *** Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2900 again, and many people began to be anxious again, subconsciously wanting to sell their **, but they were afraid that they would sell it. I'm afraid to take it, but I don't dare to sell it, in short, my heart is up and down.
Recently, a friend asked how to look at this market and what to do
In fact, the market is still that market, the valuation is at a low level is certain, and the uncertainty is the short-term influencing factors, such as the Federal Reserve, before New Year's Day, said that it was biased, the market was very happy for two days, and two days ago it was said that interest rates were not so quickly cut, the market fell for a week, and today's latest news said that it may turn dove;There is also a northbound capital flow, with a net inflow of tens of billions in the first two days of New Year's Day, and a continuous net outflow after New Year's Day. It is also said that because of the large-scale replacement of managers, it has led to large-scale rebalancing, which has led to the market.
Market rumors are daily and mainly affect market confidence, which is a short-term factor, the authenticity of which we cannot be completely sure, and how these effects are transmitted to listed companies cannot be determined. Did the Fed's early and late rate cuts really have such a big impact on corporate performance?Will the rebalancing of northbound funds and ** change the company's core competitiveness?
In my course, this information is defined as market noise, and most of the news in the market is useless information, which will negatively interfere with our independent thinking, and should be shielded as much as possible.
The core of value investing is to study the company, and we can determine the company's market position, whether the company is a good company, and whether the valuation is reasonable. As for ** is the lowest point, this is not something we can grasp. We just need to study the things that we can grasp and be sure, and don't waste time studying those factors that we can't confirm and can't understand.
If the market makes you feel anxious, it should be that you are focusing on the wrong thing. I suggest that you see if the target you are taking is an excellent asset, whether the current valuation is at a low level, and if so, then you don't need to look at the market. An excellent and obviously undervalued company will not go bankrupt because the stock price continues to **, on the contrary, the more it falls, the more valuable it is to invest, there is no need to worry at all, why bother to look at the market "noise" that has nothing to do with your investment every day and makes you uncomfortable every day.
2. Can you still buy tourism stocks?
Recently, the market has not been good, and tourism stocks have indeed bucked the trend and walked out of independence**. There are also many students in the investment research circle who ask how they think about tourism stocks and whether there are any opportunities. For tourism stocks, I didn't see much before, and the logic is very simple, because tourism stocks have been seriously damaged in the three years of the epidemic, but the stock price has not only not fallen, but has doubled, which is completely cost-effective.
The recent surge in tourism stocks is directly due to the news that the popularity of ice and snow tourism in Northeast China is "bursting", and the logic behind it is expected that the industry's prosperity will improve.
Before the New Year's Day holiday, "Southern Little Potatoes Bravely Entering Harbin" continued to swipe the Internet, and then the "Little Sugar Oranges" brought fire to the extreme north of China - Mohe, followed by Yunnan "Little Mushroom" and Taiwan's "Little Angelica", and the popularity of ice and snow tourism in Northeast China has been spreading.
According to the data of the Harbin Bureau of Culture and Tourism, on the third day of the New Year's Day holiday, Harbin received a total of 304 tourists790,000 person-times, achieving a total tourism income of 591.4 billion yuan, the number of tourists received and the total tourism income reached a historical peak. The huge traffic has been transformed into real cultural and tourism income, and the Northeast tourism stocks - Changbai Mountain and Dalian Shengya have continued to rise and fall.
A brokerage research report said: focus on the follow-up performance growth of steady growth of travel chain enterprises and benefit from the concept of winter tourism related industry chain companies: Changbai Mountain, Dalian Shengya, Lijiang shares and other companies.
Changbaishan is the largest tourist passenger transport company in the Changbai Mountain Protection and Development Zone, but the performance in the first ten years of the epidemic was tepid, and the annual profit was very stable at around 70 million, indicating that the company's operating level is not very good, and this kind of company basically has no growth.
In October 2023, the company announced its third-quarter results, and its single-quarter profit soared to 13.9 billion, more than the annual level, the stock price basically did not have much performance after the daily limit, until the New Year's Day "Southern Little Potatoes Bravely Entered Harbin" swiped the screen, the company's stock price soared by the "flow", but the heat will always go down.
The single-quarter profit in the third quarter of 2023 looks very high, but if we look at the historical performance, we will find that the third quarter is the traditional peak season for the company, and the profits in the third quarter of 2017 and 2019 before the epidemic are. 0.6 billion, while most of the fourth and first quarters were loss-making.
Assuming that this wave of "flow" can improve the business environment of Changbai Mountain, the next performance can become stable, and the annual performance will reach 200 million, that is, twice the highest profit in history in 2015, and the current market value of nearly 6 billion corresponds to a price-earnings ratio of 30 times. Is a company that has never historically shown growth worth this valuation?The company has been reborn in the three years of the epidemic, and has there been a qualitative leap in its business capabilities?
Dalian Shengya is in a similar situation.
Dalian Shengya is a tourism company with a relatively complete industrial chain in Dalian, with resources such as aquariums and parks, and is speculated by the market because it has a Harbin Polar Park Taoxue Penguin Aquarium. Is the historical performance stable?It is indeed quite stable, before the epidemic, it was a year of 350 million, except for no growth, everything else is quite stable. In 2020, at the beginning of the epidemic, the stock price rushed to more than 48 yuan, I really don't know how it was speculated!
Many people say that tourism stocks are speculating on expectations, and they are speculating on repairs and reversals. The New Year's Day holiday is so hot, followed by the Spring Festival holiday, tourism will be even more popular, and the tourism market is likely to continue its recovery momentum in 2024.
Tourism consumption belongs to non-essential consumption, the impact of the economic downturn is relatively large, and the economic recovery should be transmitted to the tourism industry should also be behind. Now that the economic recovery has not met expectations, is the real tourism industry really as hot as the A-share stock price performance?When the total number of people declines, there are more people going to the Northeast, so will there be less tourism in other regions?Tourism stocks suffered huge losses during the epidemic, and the stock price did not fall but doubled**, and the repair space is clearly an overdraft of future expectations.
For example, outbound travel was completely interrupted during the epidemic, and recently many countries such as China and Thailand signed visa-free agreements, and once outbound travel resumes, the company's performance will recover quickly.
From the perspective of business structure, 9% of the business of Zhongxin Tourism before the epidemic was outbound travel, which is in line with the recovery logic of beneficiary outbound travel. Looking at the stock price performance again, the stock price was 6 yuan before the epidemic, and after 3 years of huge profit losses, the stock price has now risen to 7 yuan!
Assuming that after the resumption of outbound travel, the company's performance can recover to an all-time high, that is, 23.3 billion, the current market value of 7.2 billion corresponds to a valuation of nearly 31 times the price-earnings ratio. Properly overdrafted future performance.
Many people don't know about the tourism industry, as soon as they hear that the tourism industry is hot, they plunge into it, completely ignoring the company's performance and valuation
Usually we talk about tourism, in fact, including tourism comprehensive, artificial scenic spots, natural scenic spots three sub-industries, including service travel agencies, hotels, cableways and other supporting businesses, there are also Changbai Mountain, Huangshan tourism such as natural scenic spots, as well as Wuzhen, Tianmu Lake, Songcheng and other artificial manufacturing scenic spots. Each type of company has different industry characteristics, such as travel agencies are asset-light, artificial scenic spots are asset-heavy, and natural scenic spots have resource monopoly nature. On the whole, the number of listed companies in the tourism industry is relatively small. Even if the industry as a whole recovers, the operating level of each company is different, and the speed of business recovery is also different, and investment in the tourism and scenic spot industry still needs to be treated with caution.
I have combed the tourism industry in the previous industry ** article, and if you want to understand the tourism industry, you can go back and take a look.