On January 30, the Boston Globe published an article by Omer Aziz, a former researcher at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study at Harvard University, entitled "Where will Biden's foreign policy take us?" 》。The full text is excerpted below:
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this month, U.S. affairs assistant Jake Sullivan laid out Biden's worldview for the clearest yet, and why Biden's governance model should be retained.
"Today, we are at the beginning of a new era," Sullivan declared. He said that there is now both competition between major powers and interdependence between countries. While this is a time of disruptive change, Sullivan refuses to compare it to the '30s of the 20th century, the years between the two world wars, when the economy was crumbling and fascism swooped in an attempt to stifle democracy. Sullivan argues that while our current moment is crucial, we are not destined to repeat the mistakes of history. We live in a time of danger, but it is also a favorable time.
However, there is also a lot that is not spoken about the chaos that is happening around us. What Sullivan didn't say in his speech may be as important as what he said. I'm referring to the consequences of Sullivan's premise, the multiple crises that are emerging today, and the possibility that the United States could fall headlong into a more chaotic or even world war slipper.
At Davos, Sullivan basically confirmed what I had suspected for some time: that we live in an era of critical transition, and that decisions made in the next five to ten years will determine the next century.
This is where things get murky. While Biden has done his best to contain this flammable world, the extent of his success is unclear. Russia** Putin has taken a firm position on Ukraine, and the situation could deteriorate further without a concrete peace proposal. Israel's war in Gaza has been going on, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to save his own political future, even if it means draining Biden's domestic support among war-weary youth. In retaliation for Yemen's Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, Biden** (ordered) to strike at the Houthis. In recent weeks, Syria, Iran, Turkey, Jordan and Pakistan have all launched-for-tat strikes. Does the United States have a larger strategic interest in the Middle East, or does it see war as the new normal?
It is unclear whether Biden has succeeded in securing any of America's core interests in the world. Sullivan articulated some tactics and strategies, but did not name the ultimate vision of American foreign policy in this era.
Ironically, the only time the U.S. foreign policy establishment paused to reflect on whether it might have been mistaken or that their assumptions were wrong, or when Donald Trump was elected America. Trump has dealt a severe blow to the "foreign policy elites", who were once sarcastically called "a bunch of" by former Obama's deputy assistant for affairs.
My concern is that Biden is making us repeat the mistakes of (former) Lyndon Johnson – who, while having the best and brightest lawyers and policymakers, are subject to outdated subjective assumptions, misreading politics at home and misleading great power posture abroad.
On the other hand, Sullivan rightly points out that this new era begins with a world order that is being destroyed. China is destined to play a greater role in world affairs, and its relationship with China requires smarter thinking and diplomacy. For many, the moment we are in – and the decisions we are about to make – is a life-or-death decision. (Compiled by Shen Jian).