Summary. New energy OEMs have increased their self-developed and self-produced power batteries, which has affected the reshaping of the competitive pattern of the first chain of zero core components of vehicles such as BMS.
More and more OEMs are pouring into the self-developed and self-produced battery track, and the resulting supply-side changes are creating new market opportunities.
Looking back at the past 2023, the number of self-developed and self-produced battery projects of new energy OEMs has increased and accelerated, and more power battery projects of OEMs with top production and sales have entered the production stage. It is expected that from 2024 to 2025, power batteries carrying the "gene" of the main engine factory will usher in large-scale growth.
On December 14, 2023, Zeekr Automobile, a subsidiary of Geely Group, released the first mass-produced 800V lithium iron phosphate ultra-fast charging gold brick battery, and announced that the Quzhou Jidian plant of Zeekr Automobile has started production of gold brick batteries, which are planned to be installed on the Zeekr 007 for the first time.
As an intelligent electric vehicle manufacturer, in order to form competitiveness in the future, it must master battery technology, which is also one of the moats for the company's future development. An Conghui, President of Geely Holding Group and CEO of Zeekr Intelligent Technology, said.
Coincidentally, on December 12, GAC Aion's Inpai battery plant, with a total investment of 10.9 billion yuan, was completed and put into operation, with an initial production capacity of 6GWh. The "magazine battery" 2 was also released at the same timeVersion 0 - P58 Microcrystalline Super Cell. According to the plan, the Inpai plant will build a 30GWh power battery and energy storage battery production capacity in the future.
Geely and GAC have also become the second batch of OEMs to complete independent research and development and mass production of power batteries after BYD and Great Wall. Other brands such as Changan and Chery have also embarked on the road of self-developed batteries.
Among them, Changan Automobile announced a new battery brand, Golden Bell Jar, in November, and plans to form a battery production capacity of no less than 150GWh by 2030. A tender released by Chery in September also revealed that it has begun to develop its own batteries.
According to data from the Advanced Industry Research Institute (GGII), among the top 10 domestic power battery OEMs in 2023, the top four are BYD, Tesla, GAC Passenger Vehicle and Geely Automobile. It is not difficult to see that the top OEMs of new energy vehicles have basically opened the road of self-development and self-production of power batteries.
Gaogong lithium battery analysis believes that the core of the collective production of batteries by the head OEMs is due to the consideration of risk management and control of the first chain, the game of industrial discourse and the reduction of costs. In the future, the leading OEMs will also form a mainstream model of "self-research and self-production + foreign cooperation".
Under the evolution of such industry trends,In addition to affecting the changes in the supply of power batteries to a certain extent, it also affects the reshaping of the competitive pattern of the first chain of BMW and other vehicle zero core components.
Gaogong Lithium has noticed that the BMS market pattern is undergoing new "changes". In the past few years, due to the dual market squeeze of OEMs and power battery camps, the market share of third-party BMS manufacturers has fluctuated downward. In 2023, thanks to the significant increase in sales of GAC Aion, Changan Automobile, Geely Automobile and other models, the market share of third-party BMS manufacturers will increase.
GGII data shows that in the 2023 domestic passenger car BMS installed capacity list, OEMs account for 529%, battery factories accounted for 227%, and third-party BMS manufacturers accounted for more than the market share of battery factories, reaching 244%。
This also confirms that third-party BMS vendors have always been important participants in the market and have occupied a place in the market for a long time. At the same time, combined with the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the trend of self-developed batteries by leading new energy OEMs, the market share of third-party BMS is expected to maintain stable and upward growth.
The value increment of third-party BMS increases
As the "brain" of the battery system, BMS is an important link between the battery pack, the vehicle system and the motor. Based on a series of confidential information such as battery cells and vehicles, BMS companies with a power battery company background will not supply other power battery companies, and BMS companies with an OEM background are the same.
At the same time, with the development and maturity of the new energy vehicle industry chain, the division of labor has brought about the improvement of professionalism and efficiency, which has made the market competitive position of third-party BMS enterprises increasingly consolidated. The three-legged competition pattern of OEMs, power battery companies, and third-party BMS companies has been basically established.
Judging from the BMS shipments of new energy passenger vehicles in China in recent years,BYD (OEM + battery factory), Tesla (OEM), CATL (battery factory), and Redco Technology (third-party BMS manufacturer) basically constitute the top 4 head campIt also constructs a very representative competitive pattern of OEMs, power battery companies and third-party BMS companies.
So, what signal will be released by the self-developed battery of the head OEM, and what impact will it bring to BMS**?
First of all, the formation of a self-developed and diversified power battery system by OEMs is actually a game of discourse on core components, which will lead to a more dispersed market share of the power battery camp in the BMS field.
Taking CATL as an example, due to the largest market share of power batteries, its self-developed BMS also occupies a major position in the market, but due to the diversification of battery equipment of OEMs and the principle of non-interoperability of BMS of battery companies, CATL's BMS market share is significantly smaller than its power battery market share.
According to the data, in 2023, CATL (including its subsidiaries) will have a market share of about 35 percent in the installed capacity of passenger car power batteries4%, and its BMS market share is about 169%, of which the difference is mainly occupied by OEMs and third-party BMS vendors.
At the same time, the traditional fuel vehicle factories represented by Geely Group and Guangzhou Automobile Group have transformed into the new energy vehicle industry, and their BMS and other core components mainly adopt the mode of external procurement. After increasing the power battery, the BMS share of battery companies will be further reduced.
With self-developed and self-produced batteries as a signal, the strengthening of the voice of core components by leading OEMs will also bring the BMS market share closer to that of OEMs and third-party BMS camps.
Secondly, the competition of innovative battery technology will become fierce, and the threshold of BMS technology will continue to rise.
OEMs not only include existing battery technology, but also focus on forward-looking battery technology exploration. According to the plan, GAC Aion plans to mass-produce solid-state batteries in 2026, and Changan Automobile plans to launch eight self-developed battery cells by 2030, including liquid, semi-solid, and solid-state.
Whether from the perspective of technological competition between OEMs and battery companies, or from the perspective of the technological progress trend of new energy vehicles, power battery companies focus on R&D investment in innovative products, and the potential benefits are greater.
At present, the head power battery manufacturers represented by China Innovation Airlines, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and EVE Lithium Energy are more focused on the production of battery cells and battery packs, and BMS mainly adopts the mode of external procurement.
Here, the professional value and advantages of third-party BMS will be further reflected.
Third, based on the management guarantee and optimization of the first-class chain, OEMs will inevitably increase the share of outsourcing while developing and producing BMS by themselves, and the weight of Tier 1 of third-party BMS enterprises will increase.
The core logic is that, on the one hand, the future competition of new energy vehicles will be the competition of vehicle intelligence, the focus of the main engine factory for the self-development and self-production of core components, will fall on the core components of the direct experience of the terminal, and the outsourcing of core components such as BMS will gradually become an important procurement mode in the industry.
On the other hand, due to the continuous increase in the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the continuous increase in scale and volume, and the refinement of the division of labor in the industrial chain, the efficiency improvement and cost reduction will bring more obvious benefits.
At present, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 17%, of which the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has jumped to more than 30%. Similar to the development of traditional fuel vehicles, third-party manufacturers have begun to play an important role in the development of new energy vehicles. Important core components including BMS, drive motors, on-board chargers, ADAS, intelligent cockpits, etc., are all involved in the participation of third-party manufacturers.
With the refinement of the industrial division of labor on the efficiency of terminal cost reduction and efficiency increase, the dependence of OEMs on third-party BMS manufacturers is expected to further increase in the future.
Third-party BMS companies are "quenched into gold".
In fact, the market competition between OEMs, power battery companies and third-party BMS manufacturers around BMS has never stopped.
GGII statistics show that from 2014 to 2019, the market share of BMS of OEMs continued to decline, from 474% fell to 20 in 20196%, power battery enterprises from 27 in 20141% rose to 51 in 20197%, and third-party BMS vendors at 234%-31.8% between.
From 2020 to 2023, the sales of new energy vehicle companies represented by BYD and Tesla, which integrate vehicle and core component manufacturing, will run wildly, and the proportion of BMS market will reverse. In 2023, OEMs will have a market share of 52 percent in passenger car BMS9%；Power battery enterprises reached 227%；There are 24 third-party BMS vendors4%。
Under the fierce market competition, some third-party BMS manufacturers have gradually withdrawn from the competition in the power battery BMS market and turned to the energy storage battery BMS market. The remaining third-party BMS manufacturers have become the top entrepreneurs who have been tempered into gold.
As a representative of third-party BMS enterprises, Redco Technology has maintained a sustained and rapid growth trend in the fierce competition in the industry, and has stood firmly in the first echelon of the market.
Statistics show that in terms of installed capacity, Redco Technology BMS will have an installed capacity of 18 in 2021340,000 sets, market share 52%；The installed capacity in 2022 is 4730,000 sets, market share 67%。In 2023, the installed capacity will be 680,000 sets, with a market share of 71%。
In terms of market ranking, from 2022 to 2023, the installed capacity of BMS of high-tech passenger cars will rank fourth in the country, and the ranking will be as high as third in a single month, and it will continue to rank first in the ranking of third-party BMS companies, which shows its market competitiveness.
In terms of customers, on the one hand, Redco Technology has increased its supporting efforts with mainstream car companies, and on the other hand, it has deepened cooperation with leading power battery companies. The company's cooperative car companies include SAIC-GM-Wuling, Geely Automobile, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motor, Dongfeng Motor, Chery New Energy, Hezhong Automobile, etc. Battery customers include Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Polyfluorine, China Innovation Airlines, Penghui Energy, etc.
In terms of product technology, Redco Technology has core competitiveness such as software algorithms, hardware design capabilities, first-class chain management capabilities and quality management capabilities.
It is reported that Redco Technology will also take the power battery management system as the core for horizontal expansion, and gradually get involved in vehicle controllers, domain controllers, artificial intelligence and big data mining technology, thermal runaway sensors and thermal management systems. And actively participate in the planning process of the next generation of electronic and electrical architecture of several car companies.
At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has jumped over 30% of the market inflection point, with the continuous increase in market scale and intensifying competition in the industry, the main engine factory has higher and higher requirements for cost reduction, efficiency increase and quality improvement, and the technical division of labor in the industrial chain will continue to be refined. The market value of third-party BMS companies represented by Redco Technology will also continue to be highlighted.
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