From February 5th to February 8th, the CSI Semiconductors Index rose by 1124%, CSI 300 cumulative **583%。Recently, domestic wafer fabs have issued performance forecasts and 24Q1 guidance, and held a public exchange meeting for investors, which has attracted the attention of semiconductor investors.
First, semiconductor demand is expected to recover moderately in 2024. Under the combined effect of the gradual improvement of customer inventory and the continuous recovery of mobile phone and Internet demand, semiconductor demand is expected to achieve stable and moderate growth.
Second, in 2024, large domestic wafer fabs are expected to increase the purchase of domestic equipment. First of all, the semiconductor market in China and the world is very large, and the company's expansion of production may not have a huge impact on the industry. Secondly, according to historical experience, if there is a downward cycle in semiconductors, it is expected to achieve further rapid development after the production capacity reaches a balance. Finally, although the inventory of old products has not yet been depleted, new products may also be in short supply.
Third, self-reliance in science and technology and independent and controllable semiconductors are still the key directions for continuous advancement. The performance forecast released by domestic wafer fabs may reflect that the progress of the independent and controllable industry is far faster and stronger than that of the secondary market. At the same time, it is also seen that the recovery of domestic semiconductor demand this year may be relatively modest; For now, the semiconductor industry may be more focused on structural opportunities.
This article was first published in the interpretation of the financial outlet, if there is **, please indicate the source.