Zbigniew Brzezinski predicted that three alliances could dismantle US hegemony and what China's role would be
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We are deeply grateful for your support. In 1997, the American strategic theorist Zbigniew Brzezinski mentioned in his book "The Great Chess Game: The Primacy of the United States and Its Geostrategy" that although the United States has become the world's sole superpower and established hegemony, this does not mean that this hegemony is absolutely stable.
In fact, there are three kinds of alliances that pose a great threat to the United States, and if one of them is formed, it could lead to the disintegration of American hegemony. Worse still, if all three alliances are formed at the same time, then the collapse of the United States may not be far off.
So, let's get to know the figure of Brzezinski, what is his background, and what alliances are he related to? In order to understand these questions, we must first get acquainted with the author of the book, that is, Zbigniew Brzezinski.
He was not an American native, but a Pole. Brzezinski was born in 1928 to a Polish diplomat who followed his parents to Canada at a very young age.
Zbigniew Brzezinski, a Polish-American, hated the history of the Soviet Union. He always had in his heart the determination to fight the Soviet Union. Although he was saddened by what had happened to his homeland, he did not return to China, choosing instead to stay in North America and study at Harvard University.
In 1953, he moved to the United States and spent the following days working at the Center for the Study of Problems and the Center for International Problems, where his main work was to study the dynamics of the Soviet Union.
His hatred of the Soviet Union made him resolutely oppose the policy of détente and advocated confrontation with the Soviet Union to the end. However, with the changes in the situation of the US-Soviet hegemony in the 60s and the maturity of individuals, his views also changed.
He began to advocate compromise at the right time and gradually weaken the influence of the Soviet Union. His theoretical skills had been recognized by the RAND Corporation, and after 1962 he became a consultant to the RAND Corporation, a cutting-edge strategic research institute in the United States.
These experiences show Brzezinski's theoretical level and influence in the academic community.
At the age of 34, he is in the prime of life and is already an outstanding political figure. He served as a foreign policy adviser to Kennedy and a scientific advisor to Johnson.
However, 1976 was the peak of his career. That year, Carter was elected the 39th American**. As a staunch supporter of Carter, Brzezinski was appointed assistant for affairs and became one of the decision-makers of US foreign policy.
He actively promoted Sino-US cooperation and played an important role in the formal establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States on January 1, 1979, during the Carter period, which made him proud.
However, his foreign policy decisions were not entirely successful. He advocated a policy of compromise with the Soviet Union to reduce world tensions, but relations between the United States and the Soviet Union were eased as a result, and the Soviet Union then invaded Afghanistan, much to Carter's great embarrassment.
Brzezinski then advocated sanctions against the Soviet Union, but it was too late, and Carter's approval rating plummeted. In addition, his decision-making in the unrest in Iran was a mess.
In 1978, Iran fell into turmoil, and the rule of the Pahlavi royal family was shaky, but the United States did not support the ** forces after the turmoil in Iran, which eventually led to the overthrow of the Pahlavi royal family, and Khomeini came to power and began to implement an anti-American policy, which made the United States lose an ally in the Middle East.
Carter** made another decision-making mistake due to the Tehran hostage incident, which led to **prestige**, lost the election, and Brzezinski also lost his position as *** affairs assistant.
Although Brzezinski had a deep understanding of politics and diplomacy and a wealth of practical experience, he was once regarded as a "disaster star" by politicians after his political failures.
However, this failed experience did not make Brzezinski lose confidence, but made him more deeply aware of the actual operation process of politics and diplomacy, and became a strategist who combined theory and practice.
His precise predictions, including the famous prediction of the collapse of the Soviet Union, made him famous after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and his theories were regained in popularity. He wrote a series of books since then, including The Great Chess Game: American Primacy and Its Geostrategy, in which he analyzes the global situation and argues that the United States is not as secure as it seems, and that there are three alliances that could pose a threat to the United States, and that if they are formed at the same time, the United States will face extinction.
The first option is the East Asia Alliance, also known as the China-Japan-South Korea Alliance. The Three Kingdoms have been closely linked since ancient times and are deeply influenced by Confucian culture, and Korea and Japan have historically regarded themselves as "Little China".
In modern times, exchanges between the three countries have been increasing, and the idea of "East Asian unity" has been born. At that time, the Korean Peninsula was not yet **, and North and South Korea were one country. This idea was first put into practice by the Japanese with the intention of creating a "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" that would include China, Japan, and South Korea, but the result is well known: Japan added hegemonic elements in the process, and wantonly bullied and invaded China and South Korea in the name of "East Asian Co-prosperity," which eventually led to Japan's defeat and heavy losses on the China-Korea Peninsula.
After the war, relations between the three countries were tense for a time. The Korean Peninsula** is divided into two parts, the North and the South, and the Korean War broke out. China supported the North Korean side, and relations between the two countries deteriorated. At the same time, South Korea and Japan, both allies of the United States, have poor relations, and South Korea opposes Japan's militarization and claims for compensation for its oppression and plundering of the Korean Peninsula during the war.
But by the end of the 70s, the situation began to change. China and the West entered a "honeymoon period" and formally established diplomatic relations with Japan. At the same time, South Korea's foreign policy adjusted, began to move closer to China and tried to negotiate with North Korea.
In 1992, China and South Korea established diplomatic relations, and ** exchanges increased. Against this background, the call for "East Asian unity" has reappeared. The three countries have a strong economy and occupy an important position in the world, and if they unite, their influence will be enough to compete with the United States.
However, there are still many difficulties in achieving unity. First of all, there are still many unresolved historical issues between the three countries, such as Japan's aggression against China and South Korea and its refusal to completely admit its mistakes, which have caused damage to the feelings of the people of the two countries.
In addition, there are also real conflicts between China, Japan and South Korea, such as island disputes and territorial sea conflicts. South Korea and Japan themselves are oscillating between China and the United States, and unless the United States weakens its influence in East Asia, it will be difficult to achieve a joint China-Japan-South Korea alliance.
The second possible alliance is made up of China, Russia and Iran. At the time of writing this book, Brzezinski had foreseen the potential and the threat that a re-emergence might pose, despite the turmoil he was in.
And the reason for Iran's entry into this alliance is related to the long-standing "Indian Ocean dream". Hoping to gain an outlet to the sea along the Indian Ocean, this dream never came true, until after 1979, Iran transformed from a country to an anti-American country, which provided an opportunity for the two countries to deepen their cooperation.
Brzezinski's reference to ** should refer to Central Asia, which is often regarded as a sphere of influence. Once an alliance is formed between China, Russia, and Iran, it will pose a huge military threat to the United States, and the power of this alliance will run across the Eurasian continent, so the United States is very afraid of this alliance.
Historically, Europe has dreamed of a union that encompasses the whole of Europe, and this dream existed as early as the time of the Roman Empire. Although France and Germany have tried to realize this dream, they have all failed.
After the two world wars, Europe withdrew from the center stage of history and was replaced by the United States, which left many Europeans deeply lost. Therefore, after the war, Europe began to form its own union, the European Union, but this European Union rejected **, because the European countries were always afraid of the influence and aggressive ambitions of **.
However, this does not mean that Europe and ** cannot be reconciled in the future. A few decades ago, France and Germany were enemies of life and death, but now they are allies, which shows that the reconciliation of Europe and ** is not impossible.
If the EU is truly integrated, it will be formed"Greater European Union", then this alliance will have an extremely high standard of living and strong military strength, which will have a huge impact on US hegemony.
Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why Brzezinski was so concerned about the formation of these three alliances. As he warned, once China, Japan, South Korea, Europe, and Iran form a huge alliance, it will be a disaster for the United States, and the hegemony of the United States will also collapse completely.
However, this is only Brzezinski's point of view, and given his past work, there may also be hegemonic ideas in the book. What we should pursue is multipolarity and peaceful coexistence, which is the mainstream of human society.
We look forward to the day when human society can truly unite and move towards a broader universe.