The next $BTC halving is less than 80 days away.
The year 2024-2025 will be the biggest bull market ever.
Why?
Here's a technical, fundamental, and macro analysis of what's to come this year.
In 2023, the total crypto market capitalization increased by 112%, with Bitcoin moving from its opening price of $16,500** to $42,200.
Despite the positive move, it is still far from the 2021 highs.
Let's dive into the historical movement of Bitcoin** before and after the halving and how the market might move in the coming months
Phase 1
There are now about 75 days left until the Bitcoin halving. Historically, around this period, $btc has provided 2-4 favorable bargain hunts.
We've retraced 20% in January, so it looks like we're at that stage.
Phase II
After that, about 50 days after the halving, $BTC tends to be slow**, with traders struggling in anticipation of the event.
In both cases, BTC rose by more than 70%.
Phase 3
Then everyone started taking profits, and Bitcoin was ** again as the halving event approached.
30% dumping in 2016
20% dumping in 2020
Overall, the year-over-year fluctuations seem to be smaller, so we may see smaller ones this time.
Stage 4
After that, $btc enters the multi-month accumulation phase. In 2016, this period lasted about 4 months, while in 2020 it lasted about 5 months.
Once the accumulation phase is broken, the parabolic move will take place and the magic of the bull market will return. 
Finally, it's important to remember that the 2020 halving coincided with the start of the Covid crash and quantitative easing, so it may not be the best data point for the future**.
Also, with the halving approaching, all eyes should be on mining this year, as the hash rate has increased significantly due to the inscription fomo.
These inscriptions are very optimistic because they turn empty block space into income for miners**.
In other words, miners may end up earning more due to transaction fees, which may incentivize miners to keep mining blocks even if their block reward is cut in half.
The miners earned more than $2.5 million in fees from the inscriptions.
Some might argue that the halving is increasingly becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, or that Bitcoin has been flowing around the halving due to the macro liquidity cycle.
Let's narrow it down and see what's happening at the macro level
Since the Federal Reserve initiated its interest rate hikes, liquidity has continued to flow out of risky assets, severely impacting the cryptocurrency market.
Now, the same thing is happening again, but this time, we are entering the phase of quantitative easing.
Quantitative tightening
Although at yesterday's meeting, Powell did not give any hints about when to stop QT, the market expects the first rate cut to take place in March or May. This means that in the second half of the year, we will start to see more liquidity flowing into the market.
Investors tend to be news, so we may see a positive move ahead of time.
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
After almost two years of only downward movement, the chart is starting to bottom.
For those who don't know how it works, when the Fed injects liquidity into the market, it does so by buying assets and adding them to the balance sheet, and vice versa.
The balance sheet chart is up - the Fed buys assets and injects liquidity into the market.
The balance sheet chart is down - the Federal Reserve** assets and eliminates market liquidity.
To understand how this affects the market, note how the stablecoin market cap begins to reverse after the Fed's balance sheet starts to bottom. Another way to look at this correlation is to compare stablecoin market capitalization and global net liquidity (an indicator of collecting major central bank assets).
We expect this trend to continue over the next 1-2 years.
ETF news has driven near-term growth, but also has a strong correlation with global liquidity.
Currently, global liquidity is on the rise, driven by increased balances at major central banks in Europe and Asia.
Imagine once the Fed joins.
Also note that there is still more than 75% of liquidity available to access the market.
In 2024-2025, we will see a lot of money flowing into risky assets.
$dxy
Another way to look at this is to compare the strength of the US dollar against Bitcoin over the past few months. 
As we saw in 2020, once DXY started**, money flowed into risky assets, while BTC went into a go-only mode.
This can be seen in the **, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit record highs, indicating that investors are bullish overall. 
Now, combine everything we've said above with the inflows we're going to see through ETFs, and you're on the biggest bull run ever.
14b - 2024 inflow.
27b - 2025 inflow.
39b - 2026 inflow.
In addition, we can also consider the trend of spot ETFs – gold prices have been in gold prices for seven consecutive years since their launch.
Although not directly related to Bitcoin, it should be remembered that $BTC may behave similarly.
At last. The most important thing is US 2024**.
There's quite a bit of hype around it, as the market tends to do well in election years.
In addition, due to Trump's crypto-friendly attitude, his potential victory could have a positive impact on cryptocurrency.
No matter which angle you want to look at, whether it's from the perspective of halving or the liquidity cycle, everything is preparing for a huge bull market.
This article provides information based on personal views only.