A few days ago, when I was depositing a fixed deposit for my family, I took a special look at the latest listed interest rate; The interest rate for 1 year lump sum deposit is 145%, 3-year lump sum deposit and withdrawal interest rate is 195%, and the 5-year lump sum deposit and withdrawal interest rate is not high, which is 200%。
The interest rate on bank deposits has fallen across the board, giving people a feeling that they have not saved yet.
Fortunately, the bank card at home is a social security card, which can enjoy the exclusive deposit interest rate of social security, and finally saved some 1-year deposits with an interest rate of 170%, which is 25bp higher than the listed rate.
This interest rate is already very fragrant, such as social security exclusive, agency exclusive, baby exclusive; You must know that the interest rate of 1-year large-amount certificates of deposit with a minimum deposit of 10,000 is only 180%, just more than 170% interest rate is 10bp higher.
Data**: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.
After walking out of the bank, I remembered a question my friend had asked me earlier.
Since the bank deposit interest rate has been continuously reduced, why hasn't the central mother let go of the hands and feet to carry out a comprehensive MLF and LPR interest rate cut?
On January 24, the leaders of the central bank announced at the press conference of the State Council Information Office that the central bank will cut the reserve requirement ratio by 05 percentage points, providing long-term liquidity to the market of about 1 trillion yuan. (See image below).
At the same time, on January 25, the re-lending and re-discounting interest rates for supporting agriculture and small enterprises will be lowered by 025 percentage points, and continue to promote the steady decline of social comprehensive financing costs.
In the following days, the domestic big A was like a long-term drought and rain and dew, and the market value management expectations of state-owned enterprises were superimposed, and the market continued to attack and pull out the positive line.
Visible,Our market is so thirsty and in need of water.
However, even so, there are voices that think that Yang Ma's strength is not strong enough, there is no reduction in MLF, 1-year LPR, and 5-year LPR.
Data**: wind
Why would anyone think that?
Before the central mother's RRR cut and targeted interest rate cut (January 25), in fact, the market was already repeatedly expecting to cut the RRR and interest rates, especially the demand for reducing MLF and LPR.
My own impression is that in November 2023, the market began to expect the central bank to cut interest rates again.
At that time, annual funding was already tight.
The replacement of low interest rates for high interest rates of local debts has brought a lot of financial pressure to banks, and in addition, the housing market is also facing great pressure on capital tightening.
However, the central bank did not cut interest rates in any way.
Since the fourth quarter of 2023, the market has been disappointed as many times as it hopes for an interest rate cut.
I was also very puzzled, and I also repeatedly discussed their views with a few friends who are engaged in finance, and everyone agreed that the central bank should indeed cut interest rates.
For example, in June, September and December 2023, our four major banks have three large-scale deposit rate cuts, taking 5-year deposits as an example, they have cut them by 15 basis points, 25 basis points and 25 basis points respectively, for a total of 65 basis points.
After the cut, the five-year deposit rate of the four major banks in September 2022 was 265%；June 2023 is 25%；September 2023 is 225%；December 2023 is 20%。
So,The market believes that the central mother should also reduce the profit of LPR and MLFAfter all, deposit interest rates have been lowered, and loan interest rates have not been cut excessively.
Later, I seriously thought about this matter and found the problem, thinking that after the central bank targeted interest rate cuts on January 25, it is really difficult to cut interest rates across the board in the short term.
In other words, I think that the release of water by Yang Ma this time is beyond expectations, and it is a special release of water in order to protect the market.
Next, to make a long story short, I have seen the data and my thinking, and there are two main points.
First, the big four banks will indeed reduce deposit interest rates in 2023, and the frequency of such reductions is very high and strong. (See image below).
At a glance, the four major banks cut interest rates very sharply;
However, this is an illusion.
It's not that the big four banks haven't lowered the interest on deposits, but thatThe four major banks did not reduce when they should have lowered before 2023, and the pressure of the previous two years was released in 2023.
In other words, after the PBOC carried out the LPR reform in 2019, and during the US interest rate cut cycle, it has already carried out a one-year LPR cut;
As shown in the chart below, the PBOC essentially entered the LPR rate cut cycle in 2019, and then cut interest rates again in 2021, 2022, and 2023.
In fact, the deposit interest rates of the four major banks of China, agriculture, industry and construction should have been moderately reduced since 2019, but none of them have been reduced.
The most unprecedented time is in August 2022; "5-year LPR minus 5-year fixed deposit" has come to 155%；This is well below the bank's lifeline net interest margin of 18%。
Moreover, this data is compared to 21%, which is 55 basis points lower.
The bank's sluggish adjustment of deposit interest rates also led to a sharp decline in the entire banking sector in October 2022, with ICBC falling from about 4 yuan to about 3 at its lowest7 yuan shares, the entire ** range was once close to 10%.
Aware of the financial risks to banks, the state began to rapidly reduce deposit rates, the first time by 10 basis points in September 2022.
Subsequently, there will be a one-key triple in 2023, which will be adjusted down three times.
So, what is the current "5-year LPR minus 5-year fixed deposit"?
It's not too high, it's 195, barely in the bank net interest margin of 18 or more. And "1-year LPR minus 1-year fixed deposit" is 19. It is still a relatively low state.
At this point, we should be considered to have understoodThe central mother can't cut interest rates on a large scale, because it squeezes the bank's profits too much, once it falls below 18 net interest margin, it is easy to cause systemic risk of banks. (See image below).
Data**: wind
What is the second thought?
is the exchange rate. At the moment, the RMB exchange rate is in. 3, only from the point of view of historical data, from the point of view of technical analysis, 73. Once this position is broken, it will often trigger a wave of trend depreciation, and it may run directly. 3 positions.
Don't forget, the U.S. hasn't officially cut interest rates yet!
At this time, if the central mother rashly cuts interest rates, then the interest rate differential between China and the United States will once again refresh the historical high of several decades.
There is no doubt that the pressure on the renminbi to depreciate will increase dramatically.
Domestic RMB assets have finally had hard-won signs of stabilization, and if the RMB has another wave of trend depreciation, then the house, the first or the salary will have to be big.
In addition, the risk of depreciation will also cause foreign investors to reconsider the input-output ratio.
For example, foreign capital invested 1 billion yuan in China and earned 1 billion yuan in a year; But the exchange rate has depreciated, and foreigners find that they haven't earned a penny of dollars after exchanging foreign currency, can they not be anxious? Will there be more investment?
To sum up, I personally think that Yang Ma is in a dilemma, and it is quite hard to be able to release water. We little people don't stand and talk without backache, and we don't know the cost of firewood, rice, oil and salt.