The year 2023 that has just passed is the worst and most difficult year for real estate in the past ten years!2024 has begun, what do you think will happen to the property market in 2024 compared to 2023?How will the property market compare 2024 with 2023?Radio.
The property market in 2024 is likely to be worse than in 2023.
The property market in 2024 will be better than in 2023.
The property market in 2024 will be similar to 2023, and there will be no significant changes.
Vote. Note: After everyone votes, they can see the real-time voting results. When the situation is getting more and more out of control, housing prices are falling more and more fiercely, when everyone is losing money, and the bigwigs are rushing to cash out, what are we facing in the new 2024?
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Booking. In 2024, the biggest uncertainty in the property market!
Let's talk about the economy and property market next year, the cruel truth you don't know!**Number.
672 bailout policies in 11 months, either in the bailout or on the way to bail out the market!In the difficult year of 2023, the report card is out (the original data in this article are all ** Middle Finger Research Institute). One word: fall. Specifically, in 2023, new residential buildings in 100 cities**, cumulative**027%, 64 cities cumulative**;
2023 second-hand residential in 100 cities**, cumulative**353%, 99 cities cumulative**;
From January to November, the sales area of commercial housing was 10100 million, down 8 percent year-on-year0%, of which the area of residential sales decreased by 7 year-on-year3% ；The sales of commercial buildings were 105 trillion, down 5 percent year-on-year2%, of which residential sales fell 43%。
The eyes are full of a drop word, ** sales area and sales amount are falling. Especially second-hand housing, second-hand housing in 100 cities has been falling for 20 consecutive months, and all 100 cities in December are falling, not even a stable one!Let's take a look at the performance of real estate companies, especially the head real estate companies. The total sales volume of the top 100 real estate companies in 2023 will be 62,7910 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 173%。
This picture is clearer. In the past three years from 2019 to 2021, the average sales of the top 100 real estate companies have been above 120 billion yuan. But now, the average sales per company is only a little more than 60 billion, which has fallen by more than half!In terms of the specific list, the top 5 in 2023:1. Poly Development, with a sales amount of 420.7 billion yuan;
2. Vanke, the sales amount is 3755400 million yuan;
3. China Overseas Real Estate, with a sales amount of 309.8 billion yuan;
4. China Resources Land, with a sales amount of 3070300 million yuan;
5. Greentown China, with a sales amount of 3010800 million yuan;
What's going on in 2022?Top 3 at the time:Country Garden, Poly Development and Vanke had sales of 464.3 billion yuan, 440.8 billion yuan and 417.2 billion yuan respectively. Do you see a few key changes?Poly, a central enterprise, escorted all the way, and undoubtedly rushed to the 2023 sales championship!In 2023, the sales amount will be 4000+, and there will be only one Poly left!In 2022, except for Poly, Country Garden and Vanke are both 4000+, and now Vanke has fallen to the beginning of 3, and Country Garden has fallen even more, from the first place to the seventh place. The scale of 100 billion real estate companies has been reduced to 16!In 2021, the number is 41!Who are the 16 real estate companies left?Poly, Vanke, China Shipping, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, Country Garden, C&D Real Estate, Longfor Group, Gemdale Group, Binjiang Group, Yuexiu Real Estate, China Jinmao, Huafa Co., Ltd., China Railway Construction, Greenland Holdings.
Look at this, there are basically state-owned enterprises, and there are very few private real estate enterprises. Will there be less in 2024?Or even extinct?
Look at the results of land sales and land purchases by real estate companies in various places, and you will find more!In 2023, the total amount of land acquired by TOP100 enterprises will be 1,319.5 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1 year-on-year7%。
The scale of trillions of land will be a little more than in 2022. This year, a lot has been done, canceling the centralized land auction in 22 cities, canceling the land price restrictions, and re-selling the land with the highest price, and strategically giving up the land in the suburbs and around the city, Beijing, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, etc., and even taking out the land ...... the core area at the bottom of the boxAfter a whole year of pushing and shooting, there was one of the few slight year-on-year increases!From the perspective of equity land acquisition, there are only two companies with an amount of 100 billion +, Poly and China Shipping. From the perspective of the value of new goods in full caliber, the top three major land acquirers are still the three major central enterprises of China Shipping, Poly and China ResourcesFrom January to December 2023, China Overseas Real Estate ranked first in the country with a cumulative new value of 258.5 billion yuan
Poly Development has added a total of 233.6 billion yuan in value, ranking second in the country
The cumulative value of new goods of CR Land is 220.6 billion yuan, ranking third in the country
The list of new value of 100 billion yuan is in the list of 100 billion sales!However, among the 16 real estate companies with a sales scale of 100 billion yuan, the land market is seriously shrinking, and there is not even a shadow in sight. For example, Country Garden, which is full of scandals, will only have a new value of 14.8 billion yuan in 2023, ranking second to last among the top 100 real estate companies. For example, Greenland Holdings, whose sales have just exceeded 100 billion, has almost no new value, and it has not taken land for a long time. Among these 100 large land acquirers, the number and amount of central state-owned enterprises and local state-owned assets account for about 80%!The number of private enterprises is 15, and the amount of land acquisition accounts for only 107%！This means that in the next 5 years, only 1 out of every 10 new homes you see on the market will be owned by private enterprises!
Next, who are the remaining 10% of private real estate enterprises?Longhu, Binjiang, the top 10 levels of land acquisition;
Weixing, in the top 20 for two consecutive years;
Dahua, the top 50 level for two years in a row;
In addition, there areJianhang, Kunheand so on the enthusiasm is also relatively high. Remember this list!At least these private real estate companies can maintain a high scale of land acquisition, and there are almost no negatives, and there will be no major risks and problems in the short term.
Three years of real estate, after several ups and downs, standing in 2024 to look at this result, many accidents have become reasonable. Think for yourself, don't you?
1. At the end of the three-year reshuffle, real estate has changed from the word "people" to the beginning of the word guo!
This picture, you taste, you taste. 
The last round of ** surge, which lasted from 2016 to the beginning of 2021, has created too many property market myths in the past five years. Nearly 800 billion Country Garden, 700 billion Evergrande, nearly 600 billion Sunac, 3 occupy the 2 trillion market. Now in the top ten list, there are only two private real estate companies left, Country Garden and Longfor, which are not stable. 2. Guo brand size + a very small number of head private enterprises will have an absolute market share, the right to speak and the right to speak
This pattern has basically been determined, and the future of domestic real estate depends on these few. - National team:Poly, China Resources, China Shipping, the three-legged and absolute position;
Then Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, China Railway Construction, Yuexiu, and Huafa followed;
- Mixed system:Led by Vanke, there will be more mixed-ownership real estate enterprises in the future, that is to say, although it is not a state-owned enterprise, it has the penetration of the national character background. ——Benchmark for a small number of private real estate enterprises:Such as Longhu, Binjiang, Weixing, Dahua, Jianhang, Kunhe, etc
The quantity must be much less than before, the overall quality must be much higher than before, don't pass the eliminated, if Country Garden can survive, there is a high probability that it will also be in this list, in short, it is necessary to take the less and fine route. year, the biggest risk in the property market is still the real estate company!
In the past, it was only a debt risk, but now it is a debt + business risk. Why do you say that?You can just look at the sales and overall profit and loss of each company. In 2024, Gemdale will need to deal with at least 12.1 billion yuan of public debt, the most recent of which was on January 13, with a bond balance of 1.5 billion yuan. Taking Country Garden as an example, from last year to this year, Country Garden's sales amount fell from 464.3 billion yuan to 2199800 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 526%。The sales performance has declined, and more than one or two have lost more than half. If you look at the financial reports of various companies, you will find a problem, now some real estate companies can no longer cover the huge amount of expenditures due to their monthly sales collection, and it is even more difficult to support normal operations. Therefore, there will be more and more layoffs, salary cuts, and even direct cuts of branches and business lines.