Based on market analysis and industry**, 2024 is likely to see a significant decline in automotive**, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) segment. This trend is largely driven by the reduction in the cost of batteries, which are a major part of the cost of electric vehicles. For example, the cost of replacing a battery for some electric vehicles can be as high as 140,000 yuan, which is often a major concern for potential buyers. However, battery costs are expected to fall significantly as the price of battery raw materials such as lithium carbonate falls from 600,000 yuan per ton last year to 90,000 yuan per ton this year.
Leading domestic battery manufacturers CATL and BYD have both announced targets to reduce battery costs. If the cost of the battery can be reduced to 300 yuan per kilowatt-hour, then the cost of a 100-kilowatt-hour battery will be reduced to 30,000 to 40,000 yuan, which is much lower than before**. Such a cost reduction will greatly improve the cost performance of electric vehicles, which may lead to a first-class war.
For those brands with higher pricing, such as models priced at more than three or four hundred thousand yuan, this ** decline may have a greater impact. As the cost transparency of automobiles increases, consumer acceptance of high-premium models is likely to decrease. In addition, with the increase in the market share of electric vehicles, the market share of traditional fuel vehicles (gasoline vehicles) is gradually decreasing. In order to remain competitive, ICE vehicles may reduce prices to maintain sales.
**10,000 Fans Incentive Plan 2024 may be the most competitive year in the automotive industry, and more auto brands are expected to join the ranks of price cuts. At the same time, some brands that cannot withstand market pressure may be eliminated. Therefore, potential car buyers need to choose carefully and avoid buying brands that may exit the market in the future. It is worth noting that in 2023, a number of foreign brands have withdrawn from the Chinese market, and some domestic brands have also announced their closure. This trend is expected to continue in 2024, and brands such as Evergrande Auto may face more challenges. This change in the automotive industry provides consumers with more choices, while also requiring them to pay more attention to the long-term stability and after-sales service of the brand.