Kunpeng Project
In 5 years, what will be the value of a property worth 3 million? Ma Guangyuan interprets all doubts
As we all know, since 1998, the first market-oriented reform of the real estate market has begun. At that time, the average dwelling was only 6 to 7 square meters per person. Today, the average person in our country has a house of 39 square meters. However, in the whole country, housing** has soared from the initial more than 2,000 yuan to the highest point in 2021 - 11,000. For more than 20 years, the United States has *** 55 times. This gives all real estate agents financial freedom.
And this wave of soaring housing prices did not finally come to an end until 2021. Then, the house prices in Huaxia began a long cycle. Especially from 2022, a new round of regulation and control of China's real estate market is getting faster and faster, and there is no trend of stopping.
According to the latest statistics of the real estate market in Baicheng: the average price of commercial housing in Baicheng in January was 15,230 yuan per square meter, down 056%, the main reason for the 21st consecutive month decline in one month. In addition, there were 99 second-hand homes in January, down 1 month-on-year, of which 90 cities saw an eight-month decline.
In the face of the nationwide property market crash, many netizens asked: In 5 years, what is the value of three million properties on the market today? The answer to this point, in the words of Ma Guangyuan, an independent Chinese economist, has been clear. He once said: "China's best investment varieties have passed, and the future will gradually change to the direction of housing." ”
The meaning of Ma Guangyuan's sentence is that the property market will no longer be as profitable as before, but will gradually get rid of investment and return to the living standards of local residents. Obviously, there are more bubbles in real estate** everywhere at the moment. In the next five years, the real estate market value will inevitably be much lower than it is today.
In fact, in 5 years, the value of a property with a current market value of 3 million will depend on the income of the locals: first, because there are not many jobs in the third and fourth tier cities, the income of the locals is relatively low. As a result, more people are coming in than out. If you own a property worth $3 million, there is a good chance that a major correction will occur. At that time, it will be a situation of "price but no market".
In a big city, three million is to buy a dilapidated old house in the urban area, or even a house in the suburbs, because there are no perfect supporting facilities around these houses, and the future housing price will be **. After five years, the value of both types of homes will gradually depreciate with the withdrawal of speculative and speculative housing.
Of course, some people feel that something is wrong, China's real estate **, have been ** for more than 20 years, this time, even after a relatively long period of **, there is a high probability of reversal, how can you say, the future housing prices, will definitely go down? On this point, we believe there are the following reasons:
First, there has been a lot of excessation in China's property market. According to data released by the Ministry of Construction, there are 600 million housing units in the country. Even if each house is only for five people, it is enough to feed three billion people. Of course, this also includes small property rights, resettlement housing, rural housing, etc., but there has been a large number of bubbles in China's real estate market.
Second, the willingness of ordinary citizens to buy houses has changed. After three years of the pandemic, most people have had their wages lowered or lost their jobs, and they have become cautious about their earnings. At present, the demand for domestic housing is declining sharply. At the same time, with the continuous decline in housing prices, the property market has no profitability, and after this epidemic, many buyers have become more rational and will choose to buy according to their actual situation. Therefore, in the future, the need for rigidity and improvement will decrease.
Third, the long-term control effect on real estate is gradually emerging. Since 2016, the state has introduced regulatory measures to curb the rapid growth of housing prices, and effectively achieve that "houses are for living, not for speculation".
Statistics show that in 2021 alone, China has issued more than 650 property market regulatory policies, including the three red lines of ** banks to real estate enterprises.
With the passage of time, the role of these property market control measures has gradually been revealed. Therefore, the positive effect of some policies at present can only prevent the recent ** from continuing to maintain a relatively stable state, but cannot reverse the general trend of the entire property market regulation. It is very likely that the future house will gradually return to the value of the house.