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The presidency of the European Council is one of the EU's top leadership positions and is responsible for coordinating the political agenda among the 27 member states to advance the European integration process. The current President of the European Council, Charles Michel, has announced that he will run in the European Parliament elections and is expected to be elected to the parliament. If Michel is elected, he will step down early from the presidency of the European Council under the EU treaty. As this coincides with the Hungarian presidency of the European Union, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is the most likely interim replacement.
Orban, as Hungarian prime minister, has been controversially dubbed the "thorn in the pang" of Europe. Hungary, as an Eastern European country, has differences with the "old European" member states on many matters. For example, on the issue of aid to Ukraine, Hungary is categorically opposed to providing financial assistance, while this proposal is supported by other EU countries. In addition, when it comes to sanctions against Russian energy, Orban has strongly demanded an exemption from Hungary. These positions have caused dissatisfaction and irritation in other EU countries.
Orban has a fairly close relationship with Russia's Vladimir Putin. As a member of the Warsaw Pact Organization in the late 80s, Hungary had close contact with Russia during the Cold War. Putin also has a good personal relationship with Orban, who has only met with the leaders of two EU countries since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including Orban. In addition, Hungary is dependent on Russia in terms of energy**, and the cooperation between the two sides is stable and almost not affected by the conflict. Orban also openly stated that Hungary has no intention of confrontation with Russia.
For the United States, Orban is also a figure in the spotlight. In the past few years of elections, he has unequivocally supported the former Trump and has repeatedly expressed his appreciation and support for Trump. Trump also thanked Orban and publicly posed with him and expressed support for Trump when he was criminally indicted. Orban even bluntly said that if Trump can return to the White House, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will not happen.
The news of Michel's departure and the possible replacement of Orban as president of the European Union has caused tension in Western European countries and the United States. Orban is a controversial political figure whose stance on internal and external affairs of the EU is at odds with other countries, especially with "old European" countries such as Germany, France and Italy. His close ties with Putin and Trump have also complicated relations between Europe and the United States.
In my personal opinion, Orban's ascension to power may pose a certain challenge to the EU's integration process and internal unity. Although the national organizational institutions of EU member states still exist, the EU as a whole makes decisions and acts more like a country. Orban's ascension to power could increase divisions and tensions within the EU, especially over issues involving Ukraine, Russia and energy. At the same time, Orban's close ties with Putin and Trump could also spark tensions between Western Europe and the United States, adding to the uncertainty of transatlantic relations.
In the face of this situation, the EU and its member states need to strengthen dialogue and consultation, work to ensure the integration process and unity of the EU, and seek consensus and compromise in order to maintain the stability and influence of the EU. At the same time, Western European countries and the United States also need to respond cautiously and avoid taking drastic actions that could escalate tensions. Only through equal, open and pragmatic dialogue can all parties find effective ways to solve problems and achieve win-win cooperation. After all, the internal unity and stability of the EU as a whole are of great importance for global stability and development.
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