A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics disclosed the output and growth rate of major industrial products in December 2023. According to the data, from January to December 2023, the output of liquor enterprises above the designated size will be 44920,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 28%。This is the seventh consecutive year that the output of liquor enterprises has declined.
If the timeline is extended, the peak output of liquor enterprises above the designated size in the past ten years (according to the standards of relevant departments: liquor enterprises above the regulation refers to liquor enterprises with annual sales revenue of more than 20 million yuan) occurred in 2016, when the annual output of liquor was 13.58 million kiloliters. Since then, the production of liquor has been declining year by year, if last year 449The production of 20,000 kiloliters of liquor is calculated, which means that the peak of liquor production in 2016 has dropped by nearly 70%.
So, why has the production of liquor declined for seven consecutive years? Is the liquor industry really bad?
First of all, from the level of national policy. In 2015, the state proposed the "supply-side structural reform", and since then, as the state has accelerated this policy reform, liquor companies have gradually deepened the shift of "de-capacity" and "structural adjustment", which is the active adjustment of liquor companies on the supply side. In addition, the implementation of the "new national standard" for liquor has revised the definition of "liquor", requiring that liquor must be made of grains and grains as the main raw material and shall not contain food additives.
Secondly, from the perspective of market demand. According to public data, the annual sales volume of liquor has dropped from 13.05 million kiloliters in 2016 to 7 million kiloliters in 2021, and in just six years, liquor sales have fallen by more than 46%. The reason for this is that, on the one hand, affected by the iteration of liquor consumer groups, the current new generation of consumers is becoming the main force of liquor consumption, and they pay more attention to cost-effective self-pleasing consumption, which is also an important reason why "drinking less alcohol and drinking better wine" has become the mainstream consumption trend of liquor; On the other hand, in recent years, due to the adverse effects of the epidemic and other external markets, the frequency of liquor consumption has decreased, which has also directly led to the decline in the actual demand for liquor.
The sharp decline in liquor sales to the upstream will inevitably prompt many manufacturers to reduce production in order to cope with market changes, after all, the balance of production and sales is the foundation for enterprises to maintain healthy development. From this point of view, the decline in liquor sales should be the main reason for the decline in liquor production in this round.
In addition, the decline in liquor production is also inseparable from the decrease in the number of liquor enterprises above the designated size. According to the data of the China Liquor Industry Association, from 2017 to 2022, the number of liquor enterprises above the designated size was 1,593, 1,445, 1,176, 1,040, 965 and 963 respectively. It can be seen that the number of liquor companies has "declined for six consecutive years", and whether this downward trend will continue in 2023, the relevant data has not been released, and it is not yet known. However, one thing is for sure, under the blow of dimensionality reduction of first- and second-tier famous liquor and even third- and fourth-tier regional strong liquor companies, it has become an indisputable fact that many liquor companies that were previously included in the statistical scope are currently bottlenecked or regressed.
The output of liquor has declined for 7 consecutive years, the number of liquor enterprises has decreased for 6 consecutive years, and the consumption of liquor has shrunk year after year.
In fact, to observe whether the development of a industry is stable, we should not only pay attention to data fluctuations, but also pay attention to the fundamentals of industry development, especially the development status and future trend of the industry's leading enterprises. In the view of Jiajiu.com, although the current production and sales volume of the liquor industry and the number of enterprises above the designated size are showing a downward trend, they have narrowed significantly, which reflects that the relationship between market supply and demand and consumer demand are changing. "At present, the liquor industry is facing a consumption shift from 'quantity to quality', and the upgrading of liquor quality consumption will continue. At the same time, catalyzed by consumption grading, the Matthew effect of the industry will be further intensified, and the differentiation and development trend between wine companies will continue to accelerate. ”
It should be pointed out that in the past seven years, although the decline in the production and sales of liquor has been synchronized with the decrease in the number of enterprises above the designated size, the liquor industry has still shown a steady pace of development under the leadership of famous liquor. According to the data, the total revenue of liquor companies above the designated size increased from 5654 in 20174.2 billion to 6,626 in 2022500 million, an increase of 1719%;The total net profit has doubled, from 1028 in 20174.8 billion skyrocketed to 2201 in 2022700 million.
As Song Shuyu, chairman of the China Liquor Industry Association, previously said, "China's liquor industry has entered a new round of industrial structure adjustment, and the industrial structure, product structure, and market consumption structure are all facing changes and adjustments. Among them, under the leadership of famous wines, the concept of competition and cooperation development has become more and more prominent, and the production areas of famous wines have shown a good situation of overall stability in output and sales, and steady growth in income and profits. ”
In fact, behind the "seven consecutive declines" in liquor production, the changes in the following data are also worth paying attention to. From September to December 2023, the output of liquor enterprises above the designated size will be 420,000 kiloliters and 4110,000 kiloliters, 4690,000 kiloliters and 5490,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 10,000 kilo 1% and 4%. In the second half of 2023, the output of liquor will maintain positive growth for four consecutive months, which also shows to a certain extent that the Matthew effect of the industry is gradually increasing, and the overall development structure of the industry is being optimized.
The recent "2023 Annual Report on the Development of China's Liquor Industry" released by the China Liquor Industry Association also shows that the five major production areas of Zunyi, Yibin, Luzhou, Lvliang and Bozhou have planned production capacity targets, and the annual output of these five major liquor producing areas will exceed 4.3 million kiloliters by 2025. According to this calculation, the output of liquor in these five major producing areas will be almost the same as the overall output of liquor enterprises in 2023.
The output of liquor showed a trend of stopping the decline and rebounding, mainly due to the completion of the technical transformation and expansion of some famous liquors in this round. From the perspective of the planning of major famous liquors, in the next 2-3 years, the expansion of famous liquor in this round will come to an end, and the liquor industry will most likely maintain a relatively stable production pattern in the coming period.
Another noteworthy data is that the losses of liquor companies above the regulations are expanding. Among the 963 liquor companies in 2022, 169 are loss-making enterprises, and the loss area of enterprises is 176%, with a cumulative loss of 18800 million. In the first half of 2023, the loss of liquor companies above the regulations rose to 338%, with a loss of more than 2 billion, which has exceeded the annual loss in 2022.
In 2023, the losses of liquor companies will further expand, which is not surprising to the industry. After all, in the past 2023, high inventory, inversion, and reduced consumption expectations have had a great impact on the development of the industry, which is more intuitive in the financial reports of listed liquor companies.
Judging from the third quarter report of 2023, in addition to the relatively stable development of leading liquor companies, the development of many listed liquor companies in the middle and lower reaches has stagnated or lost money. During the 19th China International Liquor Industry Expo held in October 2023, Zeng Congqin, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Wuliangye Group (Co., Ltd.), also explained the industry competition pattern with three "unprecedented", "The strength of the 'three advantages concentration' in the liquor industry is unprecedented, the complexity and uncertainty of the internal and external environment are unprecedented, and the significant changes in the competition pattern of the liquor industry are unprecedented. ”
Looking forward to 2024, the stock competition situation of the liquor industry will continue to evolve, and the trend of strong concentration, strong differentiation and strong extrusion will be more obvious, and structural differentiation will be further intensified. In the view of Jiajiu.com, with the continuous improvement of industry concentration, the discourse power and profitability of first- and second-tier famous liquor will become stronger and stronger, and at the same time, combined with the penetration of famous liquor into the low-end liquor market, the development of many liquor companies in 2024 is still difficult to be optimistic, and the living space of these liquor companies will be further narrowed in the future.
At the opening ceremony of the 2023 China International Famous Liquor Expo held recently, Liu Zhenguo, deputy secretary-general of the China Liquor Industry Association, also said that in 2024, the liquor industry will usher in changes such as the adjustment of market supply and demand structure, the intensification of market competition and regional competition, the change of basic conditions for industrial development and the deepening of industrial development. In the face of the new cycle of industrial development and the new pattern of market consumption, China's liquor industry can only adapt to the new market demand by all-round changes.