Today, ** fell sharply again, and ** fell out of the smell of panic selling before, and the negative feedback was on the verge of breaking out.
Wind All A rose by -19%；Among them, the CSI 300, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose by -09%、-1.97% and -263%。
At the industry level, banks, home appliances, and food and beverage bucked the trend**; Power equipment, communications, computers, media, social services, beauty care, and electronics all fell by more than 3 percentage points. The money-losing effect is significant.
Throughout the day, the bailout funds were still working, and the China Special Valuation Index rose by 045%, bucking the trend to close in the red. However, the selling pressure was too great, and the index fell sharply, indicating that market confidence was unstable, and many funds chose to flee.
What is the main contradiction of A-shares at present?
First of all, it is not a policy, and the policy is still in force. Over the weekend, the China Securities Regulatory Commission continued to introduce policies to stabilize confidence and completely suspend the lending of restricted shares; Guangzhou has introduced a policy of substantially liberalizing purchase restrictions, which has opened the first shot of "de-purchase restrictions" in first-tier cities; Other stimulus policies are also ...... on the way
External factors create the perturbation, but it will not be the main factor. Last week, the A-share biomedical sector fell sharply due to restrictive remarks made by U.S. lawmakers on Chinese CXO companies; Trump's campaign rhetoric on the war against China has also been fermenting, and it has also suppressed market sentiment. Considering that there has been no significant outflow of northbound funds, and the above problems have been around for a long time, it is obviously not the main contradiction.
Speaking of which, it's still liquidity pressure.
As the Chinese New Year approaches, the demand for liquidity in the real sector increases. Although the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio in a timely manner, the liquidity released by the central bank cut mainly entered the entity through debt, and the current willingness of the real sector to increase leverage is not strong. Against the backdrop of sluggish financing intentions in the real sector, there is a question mark over the extent to which the central bank's RRR cut can alleviate liquidity pressure.
Recently, some banks have vigorously promoted millions of consumer loans, which is very gimmicky. But those who want to borrow cannot meet the threshold, and those who meet the threshold are probably not willing to take out loans. From the bank's point of view, it is really difficult to lend money only to people who don't want to borrow money.
Back in the A** market, many investors would rather sell their assets at a low price than add new liabilities.
As far as today's ** look, the net outflow of northbound funds is 59.2 billion, with a maximum net outflow of 6.4 billion in the afternoon, and then narrowed rapidly. At the same time, domestic selling pressure continues to increase, and the current situation of tight liquidity continues unabated.
Part of the pressure on liquidity is the real demand for funds, such as the use of money during the Spring Festival, such as the repayment of mature loans, etc.; There are also a considerable number of preventive selling, such as reducing the risk of avoiding early warnings or closing positions, etc. As far as the latter is concerned, ** is the fuse, as long as the index does not fall, the demand to sell will become larger and larger, constituting a negative feedback loop.
The current problem is still to ease the liquidity pressure in the market.
At the short-term liquidity level, the national team vigorously supported the bottom to save the market, but the most important ones are the relevant sectors of the special valuation, and other technology and growth sectors lack liquidity support and are still in a negative feedback state: the selling orders that urgently need liquidity cannot find the funds to take over, so they have to cut the meat and sell, and they fall as soon as they sell, and they have to sell.
In this case, how to alleviate the liquidity problem of small and medium-sized caps has become the main short-term contradiction of A-shares, and also determines the short-term trend of the market.
The best way is for state-owned assets to change their rescue strategy, from fully supporting the bottom of the special valuation to **CSI 500 and CSI 1000 ETFs to inject liquidity into small and medium-sized caps.
*Medium and special valuation, although it can stabilize the index, but it cannot bring the effect of making money. The Shanghai Composite Index stood at 2,900 points, and many investors' holding feelings were still at 2,700 points, and the performance of the macro index was greatly deviated from the micro money-making effect.
Without narrowing this bias, it is difficult to say that the bailout was successful. After stabilizing the index, failing to stabilize confidence, the market remains fragile.
If this vulnerability continues, the previous rescue efforts may fall short, and the Shanghai Composite Index may test another 2,700 points.