How difficult is it for China Resources to break out of the encirclement in Tianhe?

There are more than 20 properties for sale or about to be put on sale in Tianhe, more than half of which are located in the eastern part of Tianhe.

A few days ago, Zhongfangjun visited the project and found that nearly 100 cars were parked outside the sales center. Walking into the sales center, the scene in front of me includes the Internet celebrity lady in the enthusiastic live broadcast, the real estate agent shuttling around the customer, and the buyer listening to the comparison and asking questions.

China Resources Tianhe Runfu Sales Center. Photo by Bi Siyi.

The long-lost excitement is back

It's been a long time since I've seen such a lively sales center. Xiao Chen, a real estate agent, revealed that their store has brought a few customers to see the house todayRunfu's channel commissions are quite attractive, starting from 2% and going up to 28%, which is relatively high in the first opening of the real estate, so it has attracted many peers.

According to the sales staff, the project is the first to be launched, with a volume of about 500 sets, and the overall utilization rate of the house type is more than 100%. * Aspect, the span is larger, 81 square meters of three bedrooms 510,000 550,000 square meters,The largest volume of 90 square meters of three rooms, that is, the advertising slogan of the product, **560,000 610,000 square meters, 115 square meters of four bedrooms 610,000 660,000 square meters, 130 square meters of four bedrooms 640,000 690,000 square meters. It is expected to open on March 9, and the current three-room frozen capital is 200,000 yuan, and the four-room frozen capital is 500,000 yuan, and the opening can enjoy a 99 99% discount.

From the perspective of marketing, Runfu is accurately positioned, focusing on the rigid needs and newly changed customer groups who want to buy real estate in Tianhe, especially suitable for people working in the Tianhe Zhigu area. A Tianhe real estate ** hand said that Runfu ** is quite sincere, and the opening is expected to be a little more discounted. But now the mentality of home buyers is "both want and want", the shortcomings of the project are obvious, and whether to buy it in the end is another matter.

Increasingly discerning home buyers

In fact, there are not a few buyers who are "reconsidering" and "reconsidering".

Mr. Lin is one of them. Although he is satisfied with Runfu's products, he has some concerns about the current sale of the northern plot, believing that the spacing between the buildings is small, the privacy is average, andThe location is a little remote。He said that at the same price, he can buy a second-hand house in Dongpu, and there is no hard demand for the area, and he is also considering a first-hand house in Liwan, after all, the best there is cheaper, and the supporting facilities are more complete from the perspective of self-occupation.

China Resources Tianhe Run Mansion model room. Photo by Bi Siyi.

Due to RunfuLocated on the edge of the Tianhe River, the surrounding area presents a combination of urban and rural appearance。Maogang Road outside the project is only two lanes, and there are car repair shops along the road, and the surrounding living facilities are mainly small shops, or rely on the community business of Pearl River Flower City. The nearest business district is Yotopia, 3 km away. In the short term, with the further development of Runfu, the surrounding situation will improve, but the changes in the urban appearance in the medium and long term need to observe the progress of the old transformation of Jishan Village.

In addition,Public transportation in Runfu is not very convenientIt is about 3 kilometers away from the nearest subway line 7 Jitang station, and more than 4 kilometers away from Huangcun station where line 4 and line 21 meet, and you need to take a bus to connect you. If it is a self-driving, it is relatively convenient, about 10 15 kilometers away from the core business districts such as Financial City, Zhujiang New Town, Pazhou, etc., and the entrance of Guangyuan Expressway is at the doorstep, but the traffic congestion is serious during the rush hour.

Mr. Lin is most entangledEducational issues。The sales staff said that in accordance with the principle of nearby enrollment in the primary school stage, the nearest school is the sports Dongkyunhe Elementary School. But in reality, in the past three years, the school has only enrolled students from one community in Zhujiang Huacheng, and it is still unknown whether the future owners of Runfu will be able to enroll and whether the degree will be enough to meet the needs of the two communities. As for the middle school stage, there is the Tianhe Campus of Zhixin Middle School nearby, but according to last year's policy, the school's seven classes in the first year of junior high school are facing the enrollment of five primary schools in Zhuji Street, and the winning rate has dropped to about 60%, which is less than the initial probability of nearly 100%. WhileA junior high school will be built on the second phase of the Jishancang plot, but the specific brand has not yet been determined

The Tianhe property market is an uphill battle

In fact, many of the delivery standards of Runfu have not yet been determined, but in order to seize the market and step up the accumulation of customers, the model room is still open to the outside world first. Xiao Chen said that there are not many Tianhe real estate projects that have recently opened channels to bring customers, and they are all grabbing customers. Especially the projects around Runfu, the response is very fast, for examplePearl River Flower City advertised "the lowest threshold of Tianhe".In response to China Resources' offensive, it also began to increase channel commissions on February 23.

It is understood that Runfu and the Internet celebrity Panzhujiang Flower City are separated by the road and are the most direct competitors. Xiao Chen said that buyers generally look at two real estate projects, and the general feedback is that the house type of Pearl River Flower City is more compact and practical, and if the budget is not high, Pearl River Flower CityThe smallest area of 76 square meters 3+1 room with a total price of 3 prefixes。However, Runfu presents a stronger sense of quality, and the choice depends on the buyer's personal preferences and budget.

According to the above-mentioned Tianhe real estate first-hand analysis, the floor price of Runfu is about 380,000 square meters, not low, plus the cost, it is basically impossible to compete in the Pearl River Flower City. In terms of products, both have their own advantages, with Pearl River Flower City having a wider range of units and more rooms of the same size, while Runfu is more focused on comfort. However, in terms of living atmosphere and educational facilities, Zhujiang Flower City currently has a slight advantage, if you consider it from the perspective of people who just need it, you may be more interested in the more cost-effective Pearl River Flower City, this tough battle is not easy to fight.

But on February 20, this competitive relationship underwent a subtle change, and the second phase of the Jishancang plot was won by Guangzhou Runhe Consulting***. According to Tianyancha, the company is 70% owned by China Resources Land, and Zhushi (the developer of Zhujiang Flower City), Guangzhou Urban Investment (the old renovation of Jishan Village), and Guangzhou Nansha Trading Investment each hold 10% of the shares. The determination of central enterprises and state-owned enterprise developers to join hands to expand and strengthen the sector is obvious. After China Resources wins the first and second phases of Jishancang, the volume of Runfu will reach 580,000 square metersIt is expected to consist of 22 buildings, with a total of more than 3,000 households, which is a veritable scale in Tianhe District.

A steady stream of new additions**

With the acceleration of the listing of a large number of new projects and new goods, the trend of oversupply in the Tianhe property market is difficult to change in the short term.

CRIC data monitoring shows thatIn 2023, there will be 9 residential land transactions in Tianhe District, with a transaction area of 103770,000 square metersIt is the only area in the city with a residential land transaction scale of more than one million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 98% compared with 2022. It is foreseeable that in the next two years, the competition in the Tianhe property market will be fierce beyond imagination.

In addition, in February this year, the Tianhe Zhigu Xiaoxintang South Area issued new control regulations. After the adjustment, the residential land has increased by 5, and the new residential construction area is about 29780,000 square meters. Coupled with the planning adjustment of the Tianhe Zhigu area, it is expected that about 40,000 square meters of residential land will be added, making the area about 340,000 square meters of new residential land in the near future. In addition, the previously released "2024 Blue Book of Land Supply for Business Land in Guangzhou" shows that this year, Tianhe District will also have the third phase of the World Grand View, Guangdong TV plot and other beautiful land.

Behind the crazy sale of Tianhe homestead, there is a further involution.

According to incomplete statistics,This year, there are more than 20 properties for sale or about to be put on sale in Tianhe District, and more than half of them are located in the eastern part of Tianhe, where Runfu is locatedOnly near the project there are real estate projects such as Pearl River Flower City, Liantou Wenjin Mansion, China Construction Tianhe Jingcheng No. 1, Guangzhou Chengtou Tianxi, as well as luxury residential projects Yuexiu Guanyue and Hesheng Manyun.

According to data from the Central Plains Research and Development Department, 2,839 first-hand residential units were transacted in Tianhe District in 2023, and as of December last year, the inventory in Tianhe District was 59590,000 square meters, with a removal period of 185 months, coupled with a number of new listings this year, its "involution" degree can be called the first of the four central districts, and it is difficult for Runfu to break out of the encirclement among many real estate projects.

Open high and go low The script is staged again?

Looking back on the past three years, China Resources' development in Guangzhou can be described as a big deal. In April 2021, the company successfully bid for the "crown" plot of Jinshazhou in Baiyun District for 2.1 billion yuan, that is, China Resources Land Jinsharui Mansion, with a floor price of up to 420,000 square meters, flour is more expensive than bread. Subsequently, in October 2022, to 385.8 billion yuan took over the part of the retreat of Baietan, Xinlongsha, which originally belonged to Huaxia Happiness, that is, today's Baietanyue Mansion.

It's hereIn 2023, China Resources will successfully win the position of "overlord" of Guangzhou local auctions。January, to 29800 million yuan won the adjacent commercial plot of Baietanyue Mansion, and the first MixC officially settled in Baietan. In April, the China Resources Consortium of "Koi Possession" successively shook two residential lands in Hanxi, Panyu District, and obtained two supporting commercial lands by the way, with a total investment of 19.7 billion yuan. In July, it won the Tianhe Jishancang plot at a reserve price of about 4.5 billion yuan, and an additional 3 billion yuan was needed to build the Nansha National Cultural and Sports Complex.

With high investment and large-scale land acquisition, what is the situation of China Resources' project decentralization?

Some industry insiders said that China Resources' real estate is of high quality and adopts the model of residential + commercial continuous development, such as Baietanyue Mansion and Chimelong Wanbo Yue Mansion, which has a high degree of market attention. Among them, Baietanyue Mansion relies on the aura of the MixC to have a good situation in many real estate projects in Guangzhou, and is close to the liquidation stage.

On the other hand, Jinsharui Mansion is considered to be the most unsuccessful case of China Resources in Guangzhou, where it acquired land at a high premium at the peak of the market, but could not support its purchasing power due to the poor development of the sector where the land is located. It is understood that in order to achieve a high premium, Jinsharui Mansion has launched scarce stacked courtyards and small high-rise products. However, in the two years since it was put on sale, 49 units have been sold, and the removal rate is only 30%.

Last year, Chimelong Wanbo Yue Mansion, which attracted much attention, was sold for the first time with the help of Panyu's lifting of the purchase restriction policy. According to the data, 446 units of the first building launched on the eve of the National Day last year have been sold, with a removal rate of 79%.

But with the digestion of purchasing power and the downturn in the Guangzhou property market,The decentralization of Chimelong Wanbo Yue Mansion also shows signs of lack of succession。Especially on the eve of the Spring Festival this year, Guangzhou has released the purchase limit of housing of more than 120 square meters, and the urban area has gradually been sought after, and the attractiveness of Panyu to investors has weakened accordingly. The data shows that the 3 and 4 buildings that were added in November last year are currently 51 sets, with a removal rate of 21%, and the results are far worse than before.

Chimelong Wanbo Yue Mansion (standard place name: Changrun Garden) online signature data. **Sunshine Family.

Back to the upcoming Runfu, the above-mentioned industry insiders, the project has been accumulating customers for a long time, and it is just in time for Guangzhou to almost fully relax the purchase restrictions. However,The subsequent decentralization situation depends on whether the fundamentals of the entire property market improve, otherwise, in the fierce competition, the script of going high and going low may be staged again.