In August 2022, the United States announced a chip subsidy bill totaling $52 billion, aiming to attract overseas chip companies to invest and build factories in the United States. However, this subsidy scheme has caused a series of controversies and questions, especially regarding the method and time frame for obtaining subsidies. Although some top chip companies have responded positively to the investment plan, with the continuous changes and delays of the subsidy plan, more and more companies have begun to doubt the feasibility of the US chip subsidy.
Originally, the United States** said when the bill was announced that the subsidies would be allocated in the next two months, which seemed to be a relatively clear commitment. However, due to the constant changes in the chip subsidy program, companies are starting to be skeptical of this commitment. The time limit has gone from the first few weeks to a few months, and then to the current state of uncertainty, which has gradually exhausted the patience of international chip manufacturers. Although the U.S. chip subsidy program has attracted some companies to invest in building factories to a certain extent, some companies have begun to consider giving up the idea of applying for subsidies.
Intel, as the top chip manufacturer in the United States, initially supported the chip subsidy program. However, with the subsidy delay and uncertainty, Intel began to lobby for the easing of the ban and said that if it lost the Chinese order, there was no need to build a world factory in the United States. In order to express its dissatisfaction with the delay in the payment of chip subsidies, Intel also announced that it had postponed the construction plan of a $20 billion factory in Ohio.
In addition to Intel, top chip companies such as TSMC, Samsung, and SK hynix have also begun to take a wait-and-see attitude towards the production time of US factories, and there are even signs of abandoning investment plans. Because if there is no substantial progress in the subsidy in a short period of time, the progress of chip construction will be further delayed, and the production time will also face unknowns.
The chip subsidy program was driven against the backdrop of Huawei's partnership with TSMC to release the world's first 5nm chip, which caused a sense of crisis in the U.S. semiconductor industry and gave rise to the so-called "chip rules" that not only limited cooperation between companies with U.S. technology and Chinese companies, but also promoted plans to reshape local manufacturing.
The purpose of the United States to invite international chip companies to build factories in the United States is precisely because relying on local companies cannot solve the problem of the first chain. Although Intel is the top local chip manufacturer, there is still a big gap compared with the current top 3nm process, which cannot be overcome in the short term, and even if you buy ASML's lithography machine, it will not solve the problem. Therefore, the manufacturing demand for high-end chips in the United States still relies on international companies such as TSMC.
The U.S. chip subsidy program has gradually faded away in the eyes of international manufacturers, and if no substantial subsidy plan is given in the next two months, many companies are likely to withdraw from the factory construction plan. At present, some companies have postponed the commissioning time of factories, and their attitude towards follow-up investment tends to give up. Now, the United States has set a two-month time limit, and if it cannot give a satisfactory answer to chip companies, this plan is doomed to failure.
The uncertainty and changes in the U.S. chip subsidy program have brought great trouble to international chip companies. There is no doubt that the Chinese market is the world's largest chip consumer market, and companies that abandon this market will face huge economic losses. The frequent and uncertain changes in the subsidy program will also have a negative impact on the U.S. manufacturing reshaping plan. Observing how this situation is changing, it's hard not to be concerned about the prospects for the U.S. chip subsidy program. In the context of fierce competition in the global chip industry, how to maintain stability and reliability in policy formulation and implementation is a problem worth thinking about and solving. Only by truly understanding and respecting the law of market development can we achieve long-term and stable development.