Discontinuous equilibrium theory
This morning in the WeChat groupZhongshan Reading Club, there is a point of view:
Stephen Coulder, a professor of biology at Harvard University, developed a very famous theory of punctuated equilibrium, a refinement of Darwin's theory, who believed that evolution (evolution) is a balance between short periods of drastic change and long periods of slow change.In 2023, when studying digital transformation, we have already paid attention to the theory of punctuated equilibrium.
In Thomas. The first chapter of Siebel's book, Understanding Digital Transformation, introduces punctuated equilibrium.
The book has a very visual diagram of discontinuous equilibrium, and most of the time, living things are in equilibrium. And once one factor upsets the equilibrium, that is, it enters a period of rapid decline, and then there is a period of rapid prosperity of the species, and then a new period of long-term equilibrium.
For example, in the Cretaceous period, which was the age of dinosaurs, the number of dinosaurs and the supply of resources on the earth at that time formed a relative equilibrium and were in a period of equilibrium.
And the asteroid hit the earth, causing volcanic eruptions that affected the earth's environment and disrupted the balance between the dinosaurs and the earth's resources. This, in turn, led to the rapid decline of dinosaurs on Earth. The extinction of the dinosaurs made room for new species to live, and mammals multiplied rapidly. After the number of mammals reaches the carrying capacity limit of the earth, the equilibrium between mammals and the earth's resources has begun.
Is industrial society a period of equilibrium or destruction?
After learning about the theory of punctuated equilibrium, I have been thinking about a questionWhether industrial society belongs to the period of equilibrium or to the period of destruction
According to the familiar stage of human development,Primitive societies mainly obtained food through primitive hunting, gathering, etcAgrarian societies began to grow and breed to obtain stable food**And the stage when industrial society began to replace human labor with machines
According to this division, industrial society should belong to oneEquilibrium periodHowever, the level of productivity in industrial society continues to increase, driven by continuous technological innovation. As a result, human beings' ability to access resources continues to improveAs a result, the number of human beings has increased rapidlyLong. This process is characterized by a period of destruction.
If the development of human society is similar to the characteristics of biological evolution, industrial society is notJust a transitional phase
Will industrial society be an intermediate state of transition from one equilibrium to another?
It is an agricultural society in which human beings use the capabilities of non-machines (organisms) such as animals and plants to achieve a balance between the earth's resources and human society. What is the transition to a state where human beings can use the earth's resources to the fullest?
In agrarian societies, the key factor that determines the balance is the level of productivity; In the future society, the key factor that determines the balance is the carrying capacity of the earth's resources, such as the climate problem that is often discussed now, that is, the earth carries the damage to the environment caused by greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activities, and reaches the carrying capacity of the earth, in order to achieve a new balance, a new economic form needs to be built.
The change of social rules under the new social form will determine the fate of mankind whether it can reach a new equilibrium state.
The Industrial Revolution is only a few hundred years old, and a few hundred years is only a moment in human history. The technological changes brought about by the Industrial Revolution have disrupted the equilibrium, and the past few hundred years have been a process of finding a new equilibrium after the equilibrium has been broken.