The panic in the market has not been appeased because the Spring Festival is approaching, on February 5, 5107** in the whole market, ** more than 9% of the 2882, the median decline of 98%。This big drop is mainly concentrated in small companies, the industry leader fell sharply in the early stage, and the decline in the thick skin and flesh in this round of beating is small, and there are even excellent players who have turned red.
The beginning of 2021 is the peak of the bull market, witnessing the ...... of Tencent with 700, Meituan with 450, Kuaishou with 400, and Haitian Flavor with 100In the past three years, we have witnessed a lot of changes, but also seen a lot of unchanged, experienced the beating of the market, learned a lot of historical cases, and accumulated gains and lessons, which have made our mind calmer.
Now when I see the market plummeting, I don't feel flustered, and what comes to mind is Meng Yan's "let everything happen", "let everything pass through me", and "oh" ......What comes to mind is Tang Shi's "the market cannot be used", "equity thinking", "xx is underestimated", "underestimation does not mean that it will rise" and so on.
The key to a company's value is free cash flow. **The key to the rise and fall of ** is performance and valuation, if you can't judge the valuation in the short term, you can at least grasp the performance. A company that can earn real money consistently and steadily** can go through the cycle and let investors sleep with peace of mind. If the valuation is lowered all the way, from "high valuation" to "reasonable range" to "low valuation", it is an opportunity for investors, and they can secretly rejoice at the best time, which is the quality that value investors should have.
The market is not invincible, but it is very difficult, it is an extremely cold, agile and cunning opponent. The market never sympathizes with the weak, and once it finds your weakness, it will continue to attack, regardless of whether this part of the funds is pocket money, salary, or pension. And if it makes another mistake in the future, the market will definitely kill it.
In the process of researching sub-industries, I paid attention to the fundamentals of the company, and did not pay attention to the industry-specific problems and macro pressures. For example, the suppression of real estate and residents' consumption power has affected the entire consumption, resulting in a deviation in the profitability of many consumer goods.
The "apparent prosperity" of financial results is not indicative of actual operating results. Listed companies and investors are relieved to see the soaring earnings data, and the market is not buying it, and will punish these companies by suppressing valuations.
Liquor companies are more typical representatives, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe shares of the actual market sales is not as good as the financial report, the stock price does reflect the "high inventory", "low batch price", "slow turnover" of these liquor companies, and these industry indicators (inventory, batch price, turnover) reflect the core problem is the lack of demand.
On the other hand, Moutai and Fenjiu, the terminal demand of these two companies is significantly better than that of other companies, in addition, the operation of these two companies is more rational and restrained, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain have cakes to share, so there is a real performance and a reasonable valuation at the same time.
Valuation follows the dynamic changes of the market and the company itself, and high valuations in the past do not mean that valuations will return to their previous highs in the future. When the company is in a high degree of prosperity, such as the growth period of large single products (Yilian Muxi), the strong brand potential (Li Ning Guochao), and the increase in industry penetration (mobile Internet), the performance and valuation are in a state of double rise. In the downturn of the cycle, companies are facing the challenge of weakening consumer and capital attention, and stock price correction is inevitable.
Some companies can indeed climb out of the trough and prove themselves once again that they are kings, but most companies may fail and sink into the sand, and the heroes are not free.
"Good company", "good time" and "good **" correspond to the texture, business cycle, and valuation dimension of **, and the three are difficult to meet at the same time, and I hope to choose "good company" and "good **" and wait for these companies to create more value through the cycle. In the process of waiting, I will inevitably need to face the risk of the company's continued decline and collapse, and at this time, I need to abandon the crux of "carving the boat for the sword" and "covering my ears and stealing the bell", seek truth from facts, and get close to the truth.
There is no shortage of hot spots and opportunities in the market, even if it is a general decline in 23 years, there are also hot opportunities such as "consumption recovery", "AI", "Huawei concept", "medicine", "Beijing Stock Exchange", "China Special Valuation", "short drama" and so on.
I don't think envy is meaningful, it is more self-consistent and realistic to find opportunities in my own circle of ability. If you stubbornly follow the endless end, you are often the one who takes over. Wu Jun's most profound point in my education is "doing subtraction", and I hope to better practice this philosophy in investment and life.
Ye Gong Haolong: In the face of sudden events, the market will be very panicked, magnifying short-term problems and ignoring long-term value. My instinctive reaction was to follow the crowd and panic from the masses, and the usual "equity thinking", "free cash flow", "Mr. Market may be crazy", and "others are afraid of me and I am greedy" have all become words on paper, and I have become a good dragon leaf worker, but when the opportunity comes, I am stuck in it.
If you can stay calm and brave, then you are likely to seize the rare investment opportunity. The bear market is pessimistic, the bull market is optimistic, and it is easy to follow the emotions, which is easy to ......Investment is a game against human nature, comparing who is more rational, wiser, and has insight into change and change.
When you enter the market, you will encounter a bear market, especially if you encounter a bear market with a small amount of money, it is inevitable to suffer losses, but it may be a valuable asset for a lifetime. If you want to make some mistakes, you should make them as soon as possible, and the further you go, the more serious the cost will be. This is true for investing, and so is life.