Recently, the relevant departments have deployed investment work in 2024, of which accelerating the layout and cultivating new quality productivity is one of the key points.
Artificial intelligence, new energy, autonomous driving, 5G, chips, etc. will be our key development direction in the future.
Among them, with China becoming the world's largest exporter of automobiles, the development of automobiles in depth has become the most realistic strategy, and autonomous driving has truly ushered in the dividends of development.
At the level of autonomous driving, led by Tesla, Huawei, etc., China and the United States are the only countries that can lead the development of the industry.
What technical preparations are required for autonomous driving, and what is the development situation in China?
Autonomous driving is a vehicle technology that allows vehicles to drive autonomously without direct human intervention. This technology relies on a variety of sensors, computer vision, artificial intelligence, and machine learning technologies to perceive, analyze, and make decisions on the road environment and traffic conditions to enable autonomous navigation and driving control.
The key technologies of autonomous driving include environmental perception and sensor fusion, intelligent network V2X, high-precision maps, human-computer interaction technology (HMI) and other key technologies.
China's national standard divides autonomous driving into six levels, and for driving automation level 4 and above, the system has the ability to automatically reach the minimum risk state if the passenger does not respond when the system sends a takeover request.
China has opened up autonomous driving road tests to accelerate the development of autonomous driving technology, and promote the gradual transition of autonomous vehicles from testing to trial operation and commercial application.
Autonomous driving is in the road testing stage, technology Internet companies, startups and automakers are actively carrying out road tests, and Pony.ai is leading the way in the number of driverless road test mileage and test vehicles in California.
At present, the level of autonomous driving assistance functions in mass-produced vehicles is usually between L2 and L2Level 5, after 2020, car companies have started L4 level autonomous driving.
At present, there are two development paths for unmanned driving, most car companies choose a gradual development route, and some technology companies choose to directly develop 4 and L5 autonomous driving in one step. At present, unmanned driving has been applied in commercial scenarios such as unmanned delivery, driverless taxis, and driverless freight vehicles.
So, what is the size and prospects of the autonomous driving market?
At present, China is actively developing intelligent networked vehicles, and unmanned driving technology has further promoted BAT and other enterprises to enter the market and increase investment in research and development technology, and the unmanned driving market is in a stage of rapid development.
Data show that from 2017 to 2021, the scale of China's unmanned driving market increased from 68.1 billion yuan to 235.8 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 364%, which is expected to reach 330.1 billion yuan in 2023.
In 2021, the penetration rate of L0 autonomous vehicles exceeded 50%, followed by 25% for L1 and 20% for L2. With the development of autonomous driving technology, the penetration rate of L2 autonomous vehicles is expected to reach 46% by 2025.
With the continuous development of unmanned driving technology and intelligent networking, the number of unmanned driving patent applications in China is growing. From 2017 to 2020, the number of unmanned driving patent applications in China showed an increasing trend, and the number of unmanned driving patent applications in China increased from 1,255 in 2017 to 2,155 in 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of 197%。
In 2021, the number of unmanned driving-related patent applications in China will be 2,107, a slight decrease from 2020, but it is still in a rapid growth trend in the past two years.
What is the industrial chain of autonomous driving, and what are the investment opportunities?
Autonomous driving is a complex system, and its industrial chain includes multiple links. The following is a detailed analysis of the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial chain of unmanned driving:
Upstream:
Component vendors: Provide various hardware and software components required for unmanned driving systems, such as sensors, chips, navigation systems, cameras, radars, etc. These are the key parts necessary to realize the autonomous driving function.
Technology providers: Technology companies that include artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, and more. These technologies provide data processing, decision-making, and control capabilities for autonomous systems.
Midstream:
System integrators: These companies are responsible for integrating various hardware and software components provided by upstream leaders to form a complete autonomous driving system. They need to have in-depth knowledge and the ability to integrate various technologies to ensure that the system works properly.
Vehicle manufacturers: Traditional automakers are also actively deploying in the field of autonomous driving, integrating autonomous driving technology into their own vehicles through cooperation with technology providers or independent research and development.
In this regard, we will mainly introduce the two leading companies, Desay SV and Thunderda.
Thundersoft is Huawei"Excellent Partner of Intelligent Vehicle Solutions", and has become a large-scale partner of Huawei's cockpit products. Recently, the company has promoted a fixed increase project of no more than 3.1 billion yuan, and increased the research and development of intelligent cockpit and vehicle operating system.
In 2021, Desay SV successfully developed new customers such as luxury brands Lotus and Psastellantis, and won core platform project orders from many mainstream car companies such as Volkswagen, Toyota, Great Wall, Geely, Li and Xpeng.
The company's surround view and parking system products have been supplied to many mainstream domestic car companies in batches, with annual sales of more than one million sets; At present, the new generation of lightweight intelligent driving platform has been designated by a number of mainstream independent brands and joint venture car manufacturers, and the third-generation cockpit products have been designated by independent brand customers such as Great Wall and Ideal.
Desay SV ranks 1st in the market share of intelligent driving domain controllers in China, 1st in the market share of automotive display screens in China and 4th in the world, and is a leading enterprise in the intelligent cockpit industry.
Downstream:
Operational service providers: These companies are responsible for the use and maintenance of driverless vehicles to provide mobility services to customers. They need to have a professional operation and maintenance team to ensure the proper functioning of the vehicle.
End users: The ultimate beneficiaries of driverless technology are end users, who can enjoy a safer, more efficient, and more comfortable travel experience through the use of driverless vehicles.
Data is critical throughout the value chain. Unmanned systems require a lot of data to continuously optimize and improve their performance. Data** Information collected from various sensors, cameras, and other components.
This data is transmitted to the data center for analysis and processing to help improve the decision-making and path planning capabilities of the unmanned driving system. Therefore, data centers and cloud computing service providers are also an important part of the autonomous driving industry chain.
In short, autonomous driving is a complex industrial chain involving multiple links and fields. Each link has its own unique value and role, and jointly promotes the development and application of unmanned driving technology.
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**: Flying Whale Investment Research