After the recent visit to China by a delegation of Japanese business circles, Sino-Japanese economic relations have once again come into focus.
The delegation consisted of 180 members and had many intensive meetings with our Chinese high-level leaders.
However, at the same time, the news of the export embargo on China has been reported by Japan's Kishida**, which has aroused suspicion of Japan's true attitude towards China.
This article will delve into the background of the delegation, the complex relationship between the embargo plan and economic and technical cooperation, and the delicate balance between China and Japan in the economic field.
The complementarity of the delegation's visit to China and the economic relations between China and Japan
The delegation consisted of 180 members from different economic organizations, including the Japan-China Economic Association, the Japan Keidanren, and the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The identity of the head of the delegation, Takao Shinto, is even more striking, not only as the president of the Japan-China Economic Association, but also as the chairman of Japan's largest and world's leading steel company.
The visit of this large delegation shows that the Japanese business circles attach great importance to the development of relations with China.
The Chinese side has also shown a very warm attitude. The delegation not only received a welcome banquet, but was also personally received by the Chinese premier.
In his speech, the person in charge of the China International Promotion Committee expressed his confidence that the economic and trade cooperation between the two sides has entered a new stage. These positive interactions have laid a solid foundation for the future of Sino-Japanese economic relations.
However, shortly after the delegation's visit, Japan** announced plans to impose an export embargo on dual-use items to China. This raises questions about Japan's true attitude toward China.
Behind this superficial enthusiasm, Japan seems to be taking some obstructive measures, which leads us to delve into the economic complementarity between China and Japan and the complex political considerations.
Complementarities and Challenges of Sino-Japanese Economic Relations
Although there is a certain amount of political friction between China and Japan, from an economic point of view, they are very complementary.
According to 2021 statistics, Japan's export dependence on Chinese mainland is more than 40%, and its import dependence is close to 49%. This close economic tie means that the best relationship between China and Japan is crucial for both sides.
If the best relations between China and Japan are damaged, it will have a huge impact on Japan, an export-oriented economy.
This is an unbearable burden for the Japanese economy, especially as it tries to renew its quest for growth.
It is precisely for this reason that the Japanese economic circles have sent such a large delegation to visit China to express the great importance they attach to Sino-Japanese economic relations.
However, there are some challenges behind this complementarity.
Kishida**'s export embargo plan on dual-use items has put economic cooperation between China and Japan to a new test.
The decision raises questions about Japan's true intentions and complicates China's high-level talks with a delegation of Japanese business circles on the need to strengthen cooperation in innovation and high technology.
Behind the embargo plan: technical cooperation and the impact of the United States
Kishida**'s imposition of an export embargo on China seems to be contrary to the wishes of the Japanese business community, but in fact it reflects two sides of the same coin. Over the past few decades, Japan has been trying to establish its own leadership in Asia, with China having a relatively low position.
This practice of guarding against China's technological progress has now been further stimulated by the anti-China policy of the United States.
Japan's export controls fall into three categories, including China and Russia, North Korea, and even the United States. This means that for these countries, Japan** has a greater degree of freedom to formulate policies.
However, this degree of freedom is largely constrained by the United States. In particular, Japan has also been included in the integrated circuit technology control consortium established by the United States against China.
As a result, Japan's technology export restrictions on China have been largely influenced by U.S. policies.
During the high-level talks between the Chinese side and the Japanese economic delegation, it was clearly emphasized that the two sides should strengthen cooperation in the fields of innovation and high technology, and make good use of the China-Japan innovation dialogue mechanism. However, this position is in stark contrast to Japan's technological protection of China and the attitude of the United States towards China's technological blockade. As a result, Kishida may set up new obstacles in Sino-Japanese economic and technological cooperation, making this cooperative relationship more in line with Japan's interests, and it is difficult to guarantee that it is also beneficial to China.
The broad definition of dual-use items and the question of integrated circuits
Although there is no real military-technical cooperation or import-export between China and Japan, the definition of "dual-use items" covers a wide range. This has led to a series of questions, such as whether the Chinese industrial research and production units and the PLA units have purchased goods made in Japan, which may be classified as "dual-use items". The most typical of these may involve a variety of photographic and videgraphic equipment. Globally, Japan has almost a monopoly on the production of SLR and mirrorless cameras, while the squadron and the military-industrial sector have also purchased a considerable number of such products. Questions have been raised about whether Kishida**'s export embargo plan will have an impact on this market.
However, the core issue of "dual-use items" remains concentrated in an area of interest to the United States, namely integrated circuits. Between 2017 and 2022, Japan exported a large amount of semiconductor and integrated circuit manufacturing equipment, as well as finished semiconductor and integrated circuit products, to China. However, the proportion of equipment products in total exports is increasing year by year, while the proportion of finished products is gradually decreasing. Recently released data showed that Japan's exports to China increased by 9 percent in December last year6%, achieving the first increase in 13 months, with chip manufacturing equipment being the main driver.
This trend is in line with the process of China's ongoing pursuit of the localization of integrated circuits. If this trend develops, Japanese chip manufacturing equipment will play a greater role in China's integrated circuit industry. However, this is exactly what the United States firmly opposes, and it is also the reason why Kishida** must succumb to US pressure to ban exports.
Conclusion: Future Challenges for Sino-Japanese Economic Relations
In the interweaving of Sino-Japanese economic relations, the triangular relationship between the delegation's visit, the export embargo program and technical cooperation demonstrates a delicate and complex balance between the two sides. Although economic complementarity provides the basis for cooperation between the two countries, the economic relationship between China and Japan faces great uncertainty due to political intervention and the complexity of the international environment.
China wants to promote economic innovation through technical cooperation, while Japan is constrained by U.S. policies and must respond to pressure from the international community while safeguarding national interests. How to find a balance in this complex situation so that both sides can benefit is a huge challenge in the development of China-Japan relations. Perhaps, more dialogue, consultation and understanding are needed to find a new balance in China-Japan economic relations and promote common prosperity on both sides.