pcThe inventory depletion is basically completedaiEmpowerment provides new growth drivers.
In 2020 and 2021, due to the increase in home office, online education and other forms due to the new crown, some PC replacement needs were advanced, channels and brand factories actively prepared warehouses, and global PC shipments were +13% and +15% year-on-year respectively Shipments have been +3% year-on-year, ending seven consecutive quarters of year-on-year decline, the inflection point is gradually emerging, it is expected that the replacement tide has arrived, superimposed AI wave hit, it is expected that AI PC will significantly improve the user experience, is expected to drive a wave of replacement tide, AI PC penetration is expected to increase rapidly, IDC is expected to reach 60% in 2027.
Benefiting from the wave of replacement and AI empowerment, Canalys expects global PC shipments to return to growth by 20246.7 billion units, including laptops, Trendforce expects global notebook shipments to be +3. year-over-year in 20246% to 1700 million units.
aiThe trend of landing terminals is highly certainpcMany links are expected to meet the volume and price rise.
AI large models were mostly used on the cloud side before, but the cloud side large models have high requirements for the network environment + high cost of use + weak privacy protection, etc., and some user needs can be solved by using large models with local billions of parameters, so the landing of AI large models on the terminal is a deterministic trend, and the empowerment of AI is expected to promote the rapid development of multiple aspects of PC, 1) The world's major hardware leaders are actively deploying AI processors, such as Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, etc., continue to launch CPU GPUs with AI functions, the advanced packaging technology represented by CODOS, the trend of the AI industry in the card position, and the relevant targets of the industrial chain are expected to benefit significantly;
2) PC battery capacity continues to increase, AI landing on PC may put forward higher requirements for battery capacity and power consumption, is expected to accelerate the battery capacity upgrade process, the current battery capacity of a number of AI PC products has been significantly improved, such as Lenovo Xiaoxin Pro 16 AI version battery capacity of 84Wh, year-on-year +12%, the future AI PC battery capacity is expected to further increase, driving the value of the battery cell link to continue to increase;
3) AI landing PC side puts forward more requirements for the memory link of the PC, and promotes the PC to carry a larger capacity of memory, according to the hardware, taking the 7 billion LLAMA model running on the CPU as an example, under the quantification of INT8, the large model landing terminal is expected to bring about 85-10GB boost.
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