Li Ka-shing's prophecy came true? Families with "two homes" may face three outcomes
After the housing reform in 1998, the market trend was good, people rushed to buy and accumulate properties, and many people did not hesitate to take out high-interest loans to buy houses even if they did not have the funds.
During this period, China has also taken a series of measures to curb the rapid development of the market, but everyone's confidence has doubled, and the more inhibited, the more crazy it is to buy.
As a result, housing prices have repeatedly increased, even in small cities, and there is more room for housing prices in first-tier cities.
As the saying goes,"Good is rewarded with good, and evil is rewarded with evil"。
This common sense seems to have been ineffective in the property market for many years, until March 2823, when the property market suddenly collapsed, and many speculators held the logic of buying houses for many years - housing prices only rose but did not fall, and began to enter an adjustment cycle.
According to the data, in 2023, the sales area of commercial housing in the country will be about 111.7 billion square meters, with an average annual decrease of 85%, a new low since 2012; The sales of commercial housing in the country are about 1166 trillion yuan, an average annual decrease of 65%, the lowest sales since 2016.
In terms of real estate enterprises, affected by factors such as the past land acquisition data and the financial situation of real estate enterprises, in the past year, the new real estate construction situation has been significantly adjusted, and the data show that the growth rate of new real estate construction area in China has been out of the situation of 28 consecutive months of decline, down 204%, and the area of new housing starts is about 95.4 billion square meters, of which 693 billion square meters were newly started, down 20 percent from the previous year9%。
It can be seen that in the past year, the property market is not only the lack of confidence of home buyers, but also the downward trend of the land scale, which can be seen that the confidence of real estate companies has been greatly pressured and greatly affected.
Many people were caught off guard by this trend, but industry experts emphasize that these changes are not unforeseeable. For example, as early as 2018, Li Ka-shing made a decision on this, and once said to **: In the next five years, housing prices will face a major reshuffle, speculation needs to be cautious, and many mainland developers are about to come to an end in terms of debt expansion.
Coincidentally, the year he came to this conclusion was that the property market was still in an atmosphere of unprecedented prosperity. At that time, these words did not extinguish the enthusiasm of the house speculators, people in the purchase of a house, even lost their minds, even if the bigwigs were outspoken, frequent admonition, still can not control the heart of the house speculators and accumulators, for fear of missing the best time to get on the car, from then on wealth and their own nothing.
However, today, a large number of followers and speculators have begun to pay for the disobedience of the year, have begun to repent, and have accelerated the listing and delivery of excess assets, but have not changed the situation of heavy losses.
And not only"Speculators"As Li Ka-shing said, many real estate companies have fallen into a debt crisis due to blind expansion in the early stage and high debts"Unfinished"Circumstance.
Of course, for families with only one house in their hands, the current downturn in the market will not have much of an impact. But for having"Two suites"family, the impact is relatively large. In fact, a lot"Two suites"Families buy a house to preserve and increase their value, in other words, to invest. For these"Two suites"For families, the future is destined to have three outcomes.
01 Confidence is still low and house prices are likely to continue**.
In recent years, people are frantically looking for housing, mainly because people always think that housing prices will continue, especially in first-tier cities, many people think that even if housing prices are in the future, the industrial economy and demographic advantages of first-tier cities can also be supported, so housing prices will not be **.
However, judging from the situation in recent years, it is not only the third- and fourth-tier markets that have entered the adjustment cycle, but also the first-tier cities.
Take Shanghai as an example: in 2021, the price of small old houses** in the central city rose to more than 100,000 square meters, and now it has fallen to 6-70,000 yuan square meters. It can be seen that whether it is a small or medium-sized city or a large city, once market confidence is broken, it is inevitable.
Especially recently, there has been a new logic - the bigger the housing bubble, the greater the risk of bursting. This also means that families with second homes will face the pain of shrinking housing prices and assets in the future.
02 The market is in surplus and there is no hope of resale.
After years of occupation, the last thing we need in our market today is housing, and housing is currently facing a serious oversupply.
However, after all, the main work of real estate companies is to take land to build houses, although the house has entered the adjustment cycle in recent years, but the pace of real estate companies to continue to take land to build houses is slow, but it has not stopped, which shows that the market is increasing, not decreasing.
However, demographic imbalances and the gradual cooling of people's enthusiasm for property speculation mean that the demand for housing will drop sharply over time. In this case, the problem of over-reliance on land revenue will have to find a new way to alleviate it, so the property tax may become an inevitable alternative.
Once the property tax is landed, the more houses, the greater the pressure to keep them, which is bound to intensify the enthusiasm of some speculators to list **.
Of course, a small number of listings doesn't really cause much of a ripple; But once these listings form a scale, competition for similar goods is bound to intensify, and it is almost impossible to make money quickly.
For example, there are currently more than 150,000 second-hand houses listed in Beijing and more than 180,000 units in Shanghai. At the same time, affected by the epidemic, many people's incomes have declined, many families no longer buy houses, and the number of people who buy commercial housing is also decreasing. As a result, families with two homes may be doomed to the pain of having one home difficult to monetize.
03 The pressure to keep a home is increasing day by day.
Today, not only families with multiple homes, but also many families with their first home are facing the same situation: after three years of the epidemic, many people have faced reduced income or even unemployment, feel increasing pressure to repay their loans, many people have been unable to support their own lives, and some have fallen into a huge debt crisis because they are unable to support themselves.
In addition, households with two or more units spend more on various expenses per month than those who own only one property, and there is no reduction even if the house is vacant.
For example, strata fees, heating costs, maintenance** and later basic strata tax, etc. Not only are these fees payable from year to year, but some of them may be increased from year to year.
In this case, households with two units will not only have to bear the pressure of repaying the loan after their income falls, but also have to bear the various costs of owning a second or more units. This kind of pressure will continue for many years.
04 The pressure on inheritance tax has doubled.
Nowadays, the most valuable asset in people's hands is real estate, as people's wealth, nearly 45% of urban households currently own two or more properties, and 200 million people live in rented houses, just from these two figures, it can be seen that the gap between the rich and the poor of urban households has become more and more obvious.
As for the social risks brought about by the gap between the rich and the poor, taking the United States as an example, over the past 40 years, the income gap in the United States has been widening, and social collapse has occurred from time to time, and social turmoil has been unstable.
This fact should be seen as a profound lesson that high levels of economic inequality can not only undermine social equity, but also undermine efficiency and even hinder the process of socio-economic development.
When economic growth stagnates and social stratification emerges, societies are more prone to conflict.
Therefore, we have been concerned about the issue of common prosperity for many years, and some experts have been suggesting that the introduction of inheritance tax (inheritance tax is a combination of inheritance tax and gift tax) should be studied as soon as possible. The aim is to prevent those who own more houses, more income, and more money from bequeathing their assets to their descendants, thereby consolidating the gap between rich and poor.
Once this tax is introduced, it indicates that in the future, families with multiple homes will not only have the pressure of owning a house and the difficulty of realizing it will increase exponentially, but also the pressure of inheritance tax will also increase exponentially in the future. However, the introduction of an estate tax would help to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor and move forward in achieving common wealth, so many of us continue to recommend speeding up the collection of estate tax. Do you agree to do so? I agree with the compliments! Wan Zi Qianhong said: Every word of the article is written by me with my heart, and I point out one"Great"Let me know that you are also working for life"Put the best foot forward"。