Transaction data of new and second-hand houses
From January 1 to 20, 2024, the number of online signatures for second-hand houses and 442 for new houses in Shenzhen will be 676.
02 First-line market analysis
Before the Spring Festival, Shenzhen gave a super gift package to the property market.
On February 7, Shenzhen re-optimized the housing purchase restriction policy, and Shenzhen households can directly buy houses without three-year social security, and the threshold for non-Shenzhen households to buy houses is directly reduced from the original 5-year social security to 3-year social security. This is the first time that Shenzhen has strongly lowered the threshold for buying a house after admitting that it does not recognize the loan.
Immediately afterwards, the real estate market broke out several more fierce news.
On February 19, Shenzhen divorce no longer traces the pre-marital real estate, as long as there is no house now, single people can buy a house normally if they meet the conditions for buying a house, and further relax the purchase restrictions. The message is not being published, and it is already being officially implemented.
Yesterday, the LPR was also lowered in tandem. Among them, the 5-year LPR was lowered to 395%, the "most drastic reduction in history", a one-time cut of 25 bps, and the 1-year LPR remained unchanged.
Shenzhen's intensive introduction of a number of unexpected property market "bombs" can clearly feel the direction and determination of Shenzhen to boost confidence in the property market in 2024.
Unfortunately, these "depth bombs" did not detonate the Shenzhen property market. The performance of the first-line market is unsatisfactory, buyers are still holding the currency and waiting, the market expectation has not changed substantially, and there is no sign of the transaction price in the community. The transaction price after the holiday is still about the same as the previous year, and even some units are still "falling".
Xicheng Yazhu, 65 square meters and 2 rooms, the lowest transaction price last year was 5.6 million, and a set of bamboo shoots in the current market has not yet been sold to 5.25 million, compared with the previous year, the transaction fell at least about 350,000.
San Naville, 119 square meters of 3 rooms, just traded a set yesterday, the transaction price was 8.5 million, compared with the latest transaction of the same type last year, down nearly 760,000 yuan. In the second half of 2023, the lowest transaction price of 119 square meters of 3 rooms in Saint-Neville is 9.26 million.
Haiyi Oriental Garden, 77 square meters and 2 rooms, currently has a set of super bamboo shoots**8.8 million, and the average transaction price fell to 11About 40,000 square meters, once again refreshing the average transaction price of the community to a record low. Last year, the lowest average transaction price in the community was still around 130,000.
03 Heart-piercing! After the New Deal, it was just necessary for the owner to insist on selling the house at a loss
Over the past year, the property market has been released in a relaxed manner, but it is always like a "hot face sticking to a cold ass", and the market response is mediocre. Housing prices are getting lower and lower under the relaxation of policies, and many owners have become numb.
Freezing three feet, not a day's cold.
Every time the property market is loosened and regulated, it is no longer a surprise to the owners, but instead there is a "fear of the unknown" about market transactions and changes in housing prices. Because in today's property market game, they have no chance of winning.
Especially now, many owners who just need to sell their houses know that they are selling their houses at a loss, but in the face of these two strong stimuli in today's market, they still maintain the low prices of the year before and dare not easily adjust the price.
For example, Bihai, as the core area of Shenzhen, has always been regarded as the epitome of Shenzhen's property market. During the market upswing, Bihai became one of the leading areas in Shenzhen.
It's just that in the past three years of market games, Bihai, as the main area of rigid demand, has become the hardest hit area of the property market. Housing prices have plummeted and houses sold at a loss have become a common phenomenon here. From the previous high sideways to the current compromise price reduction and loss selling, in the past three years, the mentality of Bihai owners has quietly changed.
In the face of the sudden "good news" around the Spring Festival, the owners have become very "calm and calm", and even some owners know that they are selling their houses at a loss, but they still maintain the low prices and expectations of the previous year.
Huafeng Qianhai Phase II just released a set of low-cost bamboo shoots yesterday. This suite is located on the middle and high floors, facing southeast, and the owner just listed it yesterday, ** directly lowered to 7.18 million, without the slightest hesitation, and said that 7.1 million can be sold.
You must know that the lowest transaction price of this unit last year was also 7.1 million, and the floor of that transaction was nearly 10 floors lower than this one. It can be said that the ** of this suite has refreshed the floor price of the community.
Behind every set of low-priced bamboo shoots, there is a family's unknown helplessness and sadness.
The owner of this suite bought this set of first-hand bamboo shoots in 2018, when the Shenzhen property market had experienced a period of high-speed ** stage that exceeded expectations, and the cognition of "buying a house in Shenzhen, buying it and earning it" also sprouted and took root during that period. However, no one has ever told the owner that after 6 years, the house has returned to the market at a "loss".
In 2018, when the owner bought it, it was about 5.8 million, plus the hardcover cost of the developer who must bring 600,000, the cost of buying a house has been as high as about 6.4 million, if you count the cost of building and so on in the past 7 years, 7.1 million ** is already a blood loss.
Coincidentally, the owner of Huafeng Qianhai Phase I, a set of 84 square meters and 3 rooms, is also unwilling to wait, and wants to sell the house as soon as possible at a significant price reduction. In May 2022, it began to be listed externally, from the initial listing price of 9.5 million to 7.6 million in January this year, and in about one and a half years, it fell by nearly 2 million. Recently, due to the dual pressure of the market and personal arrears, the owners have lowered the ** again, and even if the 207 housing purchase restriction optimization news is introduced, the owners are not willing to wait any longer.
At present, this suite has been lowered to 6.9 million, compared with the recent transaction price of 7.8 million last year, a drop of nearly 1 million, and at the same time, this is also the lowest high-rise three-bedroom in the entire community.
The owner of this house is also facing the dilemma of losing money. Even if it is a first-hand owner, who originally sold it at a total price of about 5 million *** plus about 600,000 yuan of the developer's decoration costs, as well as the loan interest over the past few years, is now selling it for 6.9 million, and it is almost already selling the house at a loss.
With the favorable property market stimulating the landing, the housing prices of Bihai Community have not appeared any **.
Merchants Green, Bihai just needs a benchmark community, and the first transaction after the 207 housing stimulus is still the lowest price in the market. China Merchants Guoling 88 square meters and 3 rooms, the transaction price on February 12 was 5.9 million, and the lowest transaction price of the same type in the community last year was also 5.9 million.
Bihai Junting, 89 square meters and 2 rooms, the current minimum set of **5.98 million, and ** there is still room for downward adjustment, the owner said that there are customers who can talk about it again. At present, this suite is lower than the latest transaction price of about 600,000 yuan in the community.
Taihua Sunshine Sea, 81 square meters of 3 rooms, a year ago, it was still about 6 million, yesterday the owner will** lowered 150,000 again, at present**5.85 million, the owner said that there is still space. It is basically close to the lowest transaction price at the end of last year.
The tide receded, the foam squeezed out, and the blue sea was slowly converging its light.
At the beginning of this year, the 207 purchase limit was optimized, the LPR interest rate was sharply reduced, and the market did not give a response that exceeded expectations under the strong stimulation of the two major property markets. "Will Xiaoyangchun come as scheduled? Whether Shenzhen's housing prices can reverse this year has become the most concerned issue for owners. Although most owners are not optimistic about the future market in Shenzhen, they are not willing to continue to reduce prices, and maintaining housing prices and holding on to currency have become the only and most rational choice for most of them.
It is believed that the optimization of purchase restrictions and the reduction of interest rates will still have a great impact on the Shenzhen property market. After all, the threshold for deep households is still very loose, and as long as you are an undergraduate, you can easily enter the household. In addition, the reduction of the LPR this time, the one-year period has not changed, mainly because the loan interest rate for more than five years has been sharply reduced, and it is almost obvious that this time it is mainly the mortgage interest rate reduction. This can be seen the country's attitude towards stimulating the property market, if the real estate has not improved, it is not ruled out that there will be a looser purchase restriction policy and interest rates continue to fall, greatly reducing the threshold and cost of buying a house.
Although the recent transactions are still similar to the previous year, after all, there are still many people still celebrating the Spring Festival, and the real impact of the policy depends on the transactions in the two to three weeks after the Lantern Festival.
However, there is a recent phenomenon that home buyers can pay attention to, and Shenzhen's population will definitely have a large inflow this year. You can see how difficult it is to buy tickets to Shenzhen recently, and many places have been congested in recent days, and congestion only began on the fifteenth day of the first lunar month in previous years. Especially now that the economy of the mainland is very poor, many people will come to Shenzhen to find opportunities to make money.
The spring of Shenzhen's property market may already be on the way.