Kunpeng Project
The three jumpers are popular in the United States, but they are tepid in China? Explore the differences between domestic and foreign markets
Author |Zhang Yu.
Proofreading|Yang Bocheng.
Title | ic**。
A new form is emerging in the world's big cities: smaller, lighter, similar in shape, structure and performance to gasoline vehicles, all powered by batteries, but generally below 70 kilometers per hour. Low-speed electric vehicles are now prevalent in East and Southeast Asia, especially in Europe and North America.
Low-speed electric bicycles, also known as "old man music", at the beginning, "old man music" was "three jumpers", but with the continuous improvement of people's requirements for transportation, four-wheeled motorcycles have also begun to have, and in appearance, it is more like a sedan.
In stark contrast to the boom in other countries, the "old man" is unlicensed, without a license, and the driver does not need to undergo any systematic training and is not subject to any restrictions, but because it is too safe and often causes car accidents, it is strictly regulated.
Starting January 1 next year, Beijing will fully implement restrictions on electric tricycles and quad bikes, and will park in public or face legal sanctions. In addition to Beijing, Hunan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai and other provinces and cities have also formulated measures to manage and control the "old man's music".
But it is undeniable that "Old Man Le" will be 168 in 20218.5 billion, and is expected to exceed 175 in 20287.8 billion, and because of the low cost and low maintenance cost, the total sales of "Old Man Music" have exceeded 10 million units. With the passing of the transition period, the clean-up speed of "old man music" nationwide is getting faster and faster, and many "old man music" companies are trying to self-transform and self-protection, what will be the future of "old man music"? Is it possible to find a suitable land to grow overseas?
1. Low-speed electric vehicles are very popular overseas.
The reason why this small-displacement electric bicycle can become popular overseas is because a short ** posted by a Chinese American blog caused a great sensation.
Prior to this, the blogger ordered an electric three-wheeler overseas through a Chinese friend and gave it to his father-in-law in the United States, and then caused a series of interesting incidents due to the "three jumpers". In the heated discussion among netizens, the American father-in-law has been introducing him to the experience of the "three jumpers" in the United States, his American father-in-law likes this three-wheeled motorcycle very much, and also applied for a license plate for him, asked him to go to the police station to buy one, and hinted that he could contact the city ** and let him build a factory there and ** his own car.
According to reports, the "three jumpers" presented by the netizen to his father-in-law in the United States were produced by a three-wheeled motorcycle manufacturer in Wuxi, and the manufacturer said that since the Spring Festival next year, online shopping orders from local users in the United States have been increasing, and orders to the United States have increased three times compared with the same period last year.
There are two important factors that make low-speed electric vehicles stand out in the international market.
First of all, the reason why low-speed electric bicycles are popular is because its price is relatively low, in Europe and the United States and other countries, its price is not expensive, so there is not much burden, residents of European and American countries, most of them have their own generators, so their electricity bills are lower than ordinary cars.
Secondly, European and American countries have clear regulations on low-speed electric vehicles, and Europe stipulates that four-wheeled electric vehicles under 25 kilometers, as well as European electric vehicles that meet EEC requirements, can be driven on the road.
However, it is still a big problem to open up the low-speed electric vehicle market abroad. According to the statistics of the research company Baijian Strategy, the market size of the world's three-wheeled motorcycles is gradually expanding, and by 2023, the sales volume in the Asia-Pacific region will reach 618600 million, which is expected to exceed 1498 by 2030900 million yuan, of which 90 million in the Asia-Pacific region06% ranks first in the world, and Europe ranks first with 5A figure of 14% followed. Due to the importance of environmental protection in countries around the world, low-speed electric vehicles may have more prospects for development in the future.
Second, the downturn of the domestic market and the transformation of enterprises.
The huge demand has made the brand "Old Man Le" rise rapidly. From 2016 to 2018, Reading occupied more than 30% of the market share with sales of 150,000 units, 210,000 units and 287,000 units, respectively, and was known as the "boss of the elderly music industry".
However, a regulation proclaimed the glory of Reading. In November 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other six departments issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Management of Low-speed Electric Vehicles", which clearly stated that it is necessary to adhere to the principle of "eliminating a batch, standardizing a batch, and eliminating a batch", suspend the approval and filing of low-speed electric vehicle investment projects, and suspend the construction of new low-speed electric vehicle enterprises, expansion of production plants and other infrastructure projects.
Forced by the ban, some "old man" manufacturers are already looking for production licenses for new energy vehicles, and have cooperated with traditional car manufacturers to develop a mini car that meets national requirements. At the same time, we also focus on the low-end market and expand abroad to seek new business opportunities.
However, this change is not simple, Reading has released 3 new energy models with a thunderous trend: pure electric Reading i3, pure electric car Reading i5, and Reading i9, priced at 4800-6.280,000 yuan, 7580,000-7580,000 yuan, and 11580,000-13Between 990,000 yuan, it focuses on the low-end market.
Reading had tried to transform the brand with the i-series, but in the response of the market, its ideal became a dream, and according to the published figures, the sales of the i-series in 2019 were 3,387 units, so the production was completely discontinued within a year.
After the loss of the I-series, Reading aimed at the small sedan, targeting the Reading Mango and Reading Mango Pro, and aiming at the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV. But because the profitability of small cars is limited, it is also highly sensitive to costs, and coupled with the continuous increase in the price of raw materials, the profit margins of small cars have been compressed to the limit.
As a result, the sales of "Mango" were not as good as expected. A court in Weifang, Changle County, Shandong Province, announced that Reading Car had filed a bankruptcy declaration, and the company, once known as the "old man's music" industry leader, was about to go bankrupt.
Not only Reddy's, but many companies that produce low-speed electric vehicles are also experiencing the same problem.
In 2017, Yujie was invested by the Great Wall Group and renamed Lingtu, and the sales of many of its electric SUVs were sluggish, and then turned to small cars, but did not make any waves, and finally disappeared completely; In 2018, four small-displacement electric vehicles under Fulu Group, including Litz, Fulu, Qifeng and Lupai, signed a strategic cooperation intention with BAIC Manufacturing to jointly produce new energy vehicles, but the small cars produced by the two companies were mainly modified on the basis of Fulu's original low-speed electric models, which did not cause much sensation.
It is undeniable that in terms of technology, capital, market, etc., the "old man's music" is much worse than the "regular army", and in the absence of profitability, the "old man's music" is likely to be eliminated.
3. Mini cars are not an emergency solution.
The main goal of "old man music" is small cars, although its technology and configuration are relatively simple, and it is very cheap, it is easy to occupy a place in the new energy vehicle market, but it should also be noted that the era of dividends for small cars has passed.
In December 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued the Announcement on Adjusting the Technical Requirements for New Energy Vehicle Products for Reduction and Exemption of Vehicle Purchase Tax, which elaborates on the relevant technical requirements for VAT exemption for new energy vehicles, including: within 30 minutes, the maximum speed of pure electric passenger vehicles shall not be less than 100 km h in 30 minutes; The endurance has been increased from 100 km to 200 km; Increased from 95 Wh kg to 125 Wh kg.
Obviously, a large number of small cars will be "eliminated" in this announcement, such as some models of Wuling Hongguang Mini EV, some models of Changan Lanming, Chery QQ ice cream, etc.
In fact, the decline of mini cars has been a long time. For example, the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV sold a total of 20,337 units of the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV in October 2022, down 57% from the same period last year51%。Although the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV is the leader in the small sedan segment, its sales performance in the first half of 2023 fell by 65% compared to the same period last year73%, reaching 189863 units, accounting for only 34 of the total sales in 20222%。
Wuling Hongguang MINI EV is the leader of the industry, not only it, but also other small car manufacturers, such as Chery QQ ice cream, which sold nearly 100,000 units in 2022, and the monthly sales result is 8333 units, but from the current public information, Chery QQ ice cream will sell less than 5000 units per month in the first four months of 2023, and in September and October, it will return to 7000 units, but it still does not catch up with the average monthly sales level in 2022. The overall downward trend is very significant.
An industry insider in the new energy vehicle industry told Donews that the possibility of breaking out of the encirclement by relying on mini cars is very small, and "Old Man Le" is currently facing a highly monopolized market, as well as many traditional automobile giants, such as SAIC, Chery, Great Wall, etc., all have advanced production technology, and it is very difficult for "Old Man Le" to compete with them.
At present, the market of new energy vehicles has entered a white-hot stage, the industry's best is getting higher and higher, in order to occupy a place in the market of new energy vehicles, "old man" manufacturers only continue to increase research and development efforts, and constantly improve their quality and scientific and technological content, in order to occupy a place in the market of new energy vehicles. On this basis, we should increase the publicity of enterprises, actively explore foreign markets, and turn domestic products into export products. If the "old man" manufacturers want to break through the current predicament, they must develop their own development route and establish their own characteristic technology.