On January 28, a U.S. military base in Jordan was attacked, killing three U.S. soldiers and injuring more than 30.
Known as Tower 22, the military base in Jordan, near Syria, provides logistical support for U.S. troops in Syria and was also responsible for some Syrian refugees when the Islamic State group was at its peak a few years ago.
On the 28th, this base was attacked by drones. It is said that when the attack was attacked, the US military drones at this base were also preparing to return, so the air defense system of the base failed to identify the enemy drones in time.
This is the first incident in which a US official has been killed since the conflict between Israel and Hamas broke out in October last year. Therefore, the shock to the United States is still relatively large. Coupled with the atmosphere of bipartisan struggle in the United States, Biden has been questioned greatly, and hardliners in the United States have demanded Biden to retaliate.
The United States, from Biden to the Secretary of Defense to others, believe that the attack was carried out by a local armed group supported by Iran, so the United States wants to launch a "substantial" retaliation against Iran.
The United States wants to retaliate against Iran, and the atmosphere in the Middle East is suddenly a little tense, and some people are worried: Will the United States and Iran have a direct conflict? Will it lead to a war in the Middle East?
The simple answer is that the United States will definitely retaliate, but it is unlikely to lead to a war in the Middle East.
Let's start with the unlikelihood of a direct conflict between the United States and Iran.
Since the conflict between Israel and Hamas, conflicts have erupted in many parts of the Middle East, such as in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq, all of which were caused by Israeli military operations in Gaza and initiated by the so-called ** people supported by Iran. The aim is to force Israel to cease fire, add chaos to the United States, undermine the prestige of the United States in the region, and weaken its influence.
However, since the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the United States has a major principle, that is, to ensure that Israel strikes at Hamas, not to allow other armed forces to attack Israel, to control the Gaza conflict, and not to allow the war to spill over.
That is, the United States does not want the crisis to escalate and does not want another war. So in these conflicts, the United States is generally attacked, but only in an equal and proportionate response.
Although the United States has lost soldiers this time, the nature is somewhat different. But a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is likely to come soon, and the United States is pushing for a longer ceasefire between the two sides.
In this situation, although the US military has personnel, the United States will not allow other conflicts in the region to escalate from the perspective of the overall situation.
From the Iranian side, he supports these armed attacks on Israel, attacks on the United States, the main purpose is to put pressure on the United States and also to weaken the influence of the United States in the region. But Iran has also repeatedly said it does not want the war to escalate.
This time, after the death of a US soldier in Jordan, when facing the accusations of the United States, the Iranian official hastened to say that this matter has nothing to do with me. In fact, it is also a sign that he does not want to escalate the conflict.
Therefore, neither Iran nor the United States wants to escalate the conflict, and neither wants a regional war to break out. The two sides do not appear to be in direct conflict at the moment.
So how will the United States retaliate? There are two possibilities:
First, the U.S. has intensified its bombing intensity against Iranian-backed forces on the ground. Just like the Houthis interfere with Red Sea navigation and the United States bombs the Houthis. The United States is likely to carry out heavy bombardment of local militants who attacked bases in Jordan.
However, the targets of these bombings by the United States are mainly the other side's military facilities and military supplies, such as bombing its drone bases, bombing its rocket and missile launch facilities, bombing its command system, and so on.
Most of the recent U.S. bombings have been like this, trying to avoid causing a large number of deaths, and in fact avoiding an escalation of the conflict.
The second possibility is that the United States will carry out assassination operations against some Iranian military **, especially some commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (many of the armed forces supported by Iran are carried out through the Revolutionary Guards) for a long time to come, just like the assassination of the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Soleimani during the Trump era. It is also a form of retaliation by the United States.
In short, the United States will certainly retaliate against Iran in some way, but it will be tactical, and it is unlikely to lead to a direct conflict between the United States and Iran. (Qian Kejin).