In today's era of information, the cattle industry is no exception, and since the cattle price in March 2023 has been sharply raised, "imported beef crowding out the domestic market" has become a hot spot. However, it is worth noting that according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, the actual volume of imported beef has not increased significantly, but a series of internal and external factors have led to the ** price of cattle. With the partial recovery of demand, domesticBeef cattleOvercapacityThe problem surfaced, and then started a two-year cycle of de-capacity. In the process of de-capacity for two whole years from 2023 to 2025, the entire industry has undergone tremendous changes and reshuffles. In 2024, the live cattle will remain in the range of about 12-14 yuan, and the overall trend will be stable and small. At the same time, the de-capacity process in 2024 will also lead to the slaughter of all fattening cattle in farms of all sizes, prompting nearly all of them to be slaughtered by the Spring Festival in 2025Beef cattleare facing the fate of slaughter.
In 2023OvercapacityThe cattle price brought by ** is the result of a combination of factors such as weak demand and consumption downgrade. In the process of de-capacity throughout 2024, a large number ofBeef cattleIt has been slaughtered one after another, resulting in a sharp decline in the overall market volume, but the demand has not declined simultaneously. This contradiction between supply and demand makes the market present a state of "seller's market", which is difficult to sustain and fluctuate within a certain range.
It is worth noting that in this process, from fattening cows to cows, bulls, almost allBeef cattleAll of them have been thoroughly cleaned up, providing an opportunity to realign and balance the market. Not only that, the introduction of new industrial policies will also lay the foundation for the upgrading of the cattle industry, and the cattle industry will show a more healthy and orderly development trend in the future.
After the Spring Festival in 2025, there will be a market due to the fact that the number of fattening cattle that have been slaughtered is no longer increasingBeef cattlescarcity, which in turn has driven up cattle prices. During the peak consumption period such as May Day, because the beef in the slaughterhouse is still tight, the slaughter price is large, which further boosts the growth of calves and breeding cows
At the same time, with the gradual spread of gambling mentality, there is an expectation of "price increase" in the market, resulting in more farmers beginning to actively participate in market competition. With the decrease in the supply of cattle and the increase in market demand, the cost of breeding has gradually decreased, which has also prompted more people to join the wave of the bull market in the later period. As the big brother said, cattle prices may usher in a continuous trend in the future.
As an important agricultural field, the cattle industry is affected by the relationship between supply and demand in the market. With the promotion of capacity reduction and market adjustment, 2024 is the beginning of a reshuffle, and 2025 is expected to usher in the opportunity of a sharp rise in bull prices. In the future development, stable demand, policy support, and industry norms will be the healthy development of the industryCritical。The fluctuation of cattle prices is not only the market, but also the long-term development of the industry should be paid attention to to achieve the goal of sustainable development of the industry.