At the beginning of 2023, the Ukrainian army suffered a crushing defeat in Avdeyevka, and the so-called "withdrawal" notice issued by them was actually a cover for the rout. This defeat not only caused huge losses for the Ukrainian army, but also seriously affected their morale. At the same time, the Russian army won successive victories in the following battles. It can be said that the stalemate phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has ended, and the defeat of Ukraine has been certain, which cannot be changed unless the US military intervenes.
This reversal of the tide of the war is mainly due to the flexible response of the Russian army. Despite the fact that Ukraine has always been supported by the West, Russia has not fully launched its war machine, has not established a clear advantage in strength and firepower, and has therefore suffered heavy losses in a war of attrition. However, since the second half of 2023, the Russian army has increased its investment in the battlefield and changed its tactical thinking, and began to adopt a war of attrition strategy similar to that of Ukraine, which quickly turned the situation around.
For example, the Russian army's carefully arranged "** Mut meat grinder" defense line, through a defense system composed of mine arrays, trenches and heavy firepower, successfully defeated more than 30 main brigades of the Ukrainian army, causing them a huge **. And the "Surovikin" defense line in the Zaporozhye direction took half a year to build, and through dense minefields and heavy artillery fire, the Ukrainian army had to pay a heavy price for every step forward. In more than half a year of offensive and defensive attrition, Ukraine has lost a large number of veterans and exhausted the ** and ammunition provided by Western support. These defeats have put Ukraine in a situation where they are unable to fight back, and they have also laid the groundwork for the fiasco of Avdeyevka.
At the moment, Russia's strategic intentions are very clear, they are not in a hurry to continue to storm cities, but want to consolidate the areas they have mastered and build a solid line of defense. Ukraine has already lost almost a third of its territory and established a pro-Russian regime. The victory in Avdeyevka provides a security shield for the Donbas region, and the Russian army can focus on expanding the outer defense zone and establishing a solid defensive line. At the same time, these occupied areas have also become Russia's bargaining chips in the negotiations, and once the peace talks begin, Russia will be in an advantageous position.
On the contrary, it is almost impossible for Ukraine to organize a new round of **. Despite the support of Germany and France, $60 billion worth of U.S. aid is still stuck in the U.S. Congress. Moreover, even with the funds, the production of ** and ammunition will take time, and for Western countries with limited production capacity, fast delivery is almost impossible. In addition, Ukraine has suffered a serious population loss, and the enormous ** on the battlefield and general war weariness have put Ukraine in a desperate situation.
Seeing that Ukraine is about to collapse, the United States and NATO are clearly the ideal helpers. NATO recently conducted large-scale military exercises on Russia's doorstep and continues to expand its military, and Sweden is expected to become a new member. However, neither the countries of Europe nor the United States have the courage to confront Russia head-on. Deputy Chairman Medvedev even openly threatened that if Russia was returned to its 1991 borders, the Russian army would start a nuclear war against the West. It can be seen that strength is the basis of the right to speak, and nuclear powers will never lose the war. In this case, Ukraine's perhaps wisest choice is to abandon resistance and accept defeat.
In short, Ukraine is facing a serious military setback, and Russia has seized the initiative on the battlefield. The rout and defeat of the Ukrainian army has put Ukraine in a difficult position, while the Russian army has turned the tide by skillfully using the tactics of a war of attrition. It is almost impossible for Ukraine to reverse the situation, and NATO and the United States do not have the courage to confront Russia head-on in the current situation. Let's face it, Ukraine should perhaps abandon resistance and accept defeat.