The Year of the Rabbit in the lunar calendar has come to an end, and the Year of the Dragon has slowly set sail.
In the new year, a fulfilling and hopeful life will continue, and for the A** field, I believe that the majority of investment friends are already full of expectations. Recently, the domestic good news has come frequently, and the consumption data that exceeded expectations during the holiday will all accumulate strength for the subsequent trend of the market. Let's take a look at some of the positive changes in the market.
The consumption data of the Spring Festival is improving
During the Spring Festival, the tourism and duty-free markets continued to improve.
According to Ctrip data, travel orders on the first day of the holiday increased by 102% year-on-year, ticket orders increased by more than 300% year-on-year, and domestic airport pick-up orders increased by 75% year-on-year, all of which significantly exceeded the level of the same period in 2019. At the same time, inbound and outbound tourism also hit a new high in recent years, with both outbound and inbound travel orders increasing compared with the same period in 2019.
According to data released by Tongcheng Travel, from the first to the fourth day of the Lunar New Year, the number of hotel bookings in major counties across the country increased by more than 120% year-on-year. In addition, the first four days of the Spring Festival holiday are the time period when the passenger flow of outbound travel is more concentrated. According to the data, from February 10 to 13, hotel bookings in Singapore, Bangkok, Hong Kong, and Macau all increased by more than 300% year-on-year, of which hotel bookings in Singapore increased by more than 800% year-on-year.
Previously, the "new Malaysia and Thailand", which are exempt from visas with China, have become the big winners of outbound travel.
In addition, according to the statistics of Haikou Customs, five days before the holiday (10th-14th), the customs supervised a total of 15 duty-free sales on the outlying islands8.5 billion yuan, the number of duty-free shoppers is 19630,000 person-times, with an average per capita consumption of 8,074 yuan. It is reported that during the Spring Festival holiday in 2023, Haikou Customs will supervise a total of 15 duty-free shopping on outlying islands600 million yuan,Halfway through this year's Spring Festival holiday, the duty-free data exceeded the sales amount of the entire holiday last year.
The bright consumption data of Spring Festival retail also drove the performance of consumer service-related sectors**. The "king of duty-free" China Duty Free H rose sharply, with a cumulative increase of more than 10% for three consecutive trading days, hitting a new high in recent times. Huazhu Group, one of the head of the hotel, also rose more than 10% in stock price.
With the recovery of the domestic economy, the resumption of international flights and the relaxation of visa policies, it is expected that the scale of domestic tourism consumption will continue to grow in 2024, and the scale of outbound tourism may increase in an all-round way. The China Tourism Academy recently pointed out in a report that the tourism market and tourism industry chain will be significantly restored in 2023. It is estimated that the number of domestic tourists will exceed 6 billion in 2024, and the total number of inbound and outbound tourists is expected to exceed 2600 million people.
Xinhua News Agency commented that the Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon, from offline to online, from the city to the countryside, the hot consumption scene reveals a strong New Year's flavor, making people feel the pulse of China's economic New Year "market".
The SME Development Index rebounded in January
According to data released by the China Association of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises on the 14th, the development index of small and medium-sized enterprises in January was 892, up 0 from the previous month2 points, higher than the same period in 2023.
The sub-industry index rose 6 and fell 2. In January, except for the social services sector and the accommodation and catering industry index, both fell by 0In addition to 2 o'clock, the indices of industry, construction, transportation, postal and warehousing, real estate, wholesale and retail trade, and information transmission, computer services, and software increased respectively from the previous month1 and 03 points.
The sub-index rose 7 and 1 flat. In January, in addition to the labor index was flat, the macroeconomic sentiment index, comprehensive business index, market index, cost index, capital index, input index and efficiency index increased respectively from the previous month2 and 02 points.
In terms of sub-regions, the indices of the eastern, central and western regions increased respectively in January compared with the previous month2 and 03 points.
According to reports, at the beginning of the year, various localities stepped up production for the sprint "good start", coupled with the proximity of the Spring Festival to drive the recovery of consumer demand, and the development index of small and medium-sized enterprises in January rebounded from the previous month.
Judging from the small and medium-sized enterprise development index in January, the current confidence in the development of small and medium-sized enterprises has been boosted. At the same time, the holiday effect has helped domestic demand to gradually stabilize, the market activity of small and medium-sized enterprises has recovered, and the supporting role of consumption in the economy has become increasingly prominent.
Small and medium-sized enterprises are an important vital force in the development of the national economy. With the continuous improvement of the macro economy, the continuous development of a package of support policies, and the efforts of enterprises themselves, the confidence and momentum of the development of small and medium-sized enterprises will be stronger, and they will move towards higher development goals.
The big state-owned banks have made big moves
In addition, there is also good news for the real estate industry, and more and more large state-owned banks have stepped in to help the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Since the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration clarified the relevant arrangements in January, large state-owned banks and joint-stock banks have responded positively, acted quickly, and held special meetings one after another.
According to incomplete statistics, since February, large state-owned banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications have taken the lead in expressing their positions; Industrial Bank, China Merchants Bank and other joint-stock banks have also successively held special meetings on the coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing. Through the concerted efforts of the first party, banks and enterprises, the "white list" of real estate projects sorted out will be pushed in a timely manner to ensure the smooth progress of relevant project financing.
According to public information, among the six state-owned banks of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications and Postal Savings Bank, except for the list items that the Postal Savings Bank has not disclosed to obtain and dock, the other five banks have obtained and docked more than 8,200 projects.
A number of banks stressed that they will meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems without discrimination, and accelerate the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism.
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said: "The coordination mechanism is headed by the responsible comrade in charge of housing and urban-rural construction in the city, and the local housing and urban-rural development department and the dispatched agency of the State Administration of Financial Supervision are member units. Through regular consultations, problem coordination and resolution, and building a communication platform between banks and enterprises, a policy synergy is formed. ”This mechanism is conducive to strengthening the territorial responsibility of local governments, enhancing the confidence of financial institutions, and consolidating the main responsibility of real estate development enterprises.
Big consumption is still promising
At the end of the article, I would like to share some views on consumption by Zeng Guang, assistant director of Guoxin ** Economic Research Institute and leader of the large consumption group.
Zeng Guang said, "In 2024, the entire consumer market is an area that is very important to focus on and everywhere. At present, the proportion of consumption in GDP is actually close to 40%, and compared with the historical experience of the United States, it will go in the direction of %. In the future, China will also move from the manufacturing industry to the general direction of the consumer market, that isChina may have been a manufacturing hub in the past, but it will also become a consumption hub in the future.
So we can see that ** and local ** also pin a large part of their hopes for growth in 2024 in the field of consumption, because whether it is investment or export, it may have entered a relatively stable stage.
The introduction of many policies and financial subsidies is actually to encourage everyone to consume. You may think that cost-effective consumption is that everyone has no money, but if you look at the savings of the bank, the savings of Chinese are actually quite a lot. At present, it is possible to have money, but the willingness to consume is declining, and in the future, with the establishment of the entire security system and the recovery of the employment rate, I believe that the entire consumer market will still have a lot to do in 2024. ”
I want to emphasize that cost-effective consumption is an eternal topic, it has a relationship with income, but there is no absolute relationship. Developed countries such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea, in fact, will turn to cost-effective consumption after slowly rationalizing consumption, and at the same time, personalized consumption characteristics will be more obvious. Zeng Guang said.
Therefore, in the specific optimistic direction, Zeng Guang mentioned three types of enterprises:
1. Cost-effective consumer enterprises
In the process of consumption upgrading, even if everyone's income becomes higher and higher, but consumers' pursuit of cost performance is still natural and unchanged, and in the future, as everyone blindly pursues luxury goods to enter the rationalization, cost-effective consumption will inevitably become a trend.
In the 30 years from the 90s to 2020 in Japan, companies like Uniqlo have won the favor of consumers, so we believe that cost-effective consumption will still show relatively good growth in 2024.
2. Overseas enterprises
We believe that going overseas represents the grand ambition of China's manufacturing industry to go global. On the whole, China's manufacturing industry can not only compete with multinational enterprises in the domestic market, but also form a competitive advantage in the traditional advantageous areas of multinational enterprises or the base camp of the other party.
In recent years, the entire Chinese manufacturing industry has taken shape, and many well-known companies are now doing very well.
3. Enterprises that can realize branding
In the past, the cost advantage and manufacturing advantage of Chinese enterprises will be more obvious, but we believe that Chinese enterprises will definitely go in the direction of branding in the future, that is, they can obtain profits at the higher end of the entire profit chain.
At present, some Chinese companies have begun to go in this direction, and some Chinese companies' products are not cheap abroad, especially China's automotive industry is gradually moving towards the middle and high-end, so if a Chinese company has both R&D strength and can take branding as a long-term strategy implementation, such enterprises are also worth paying attention to.
This article is from: **Star.