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The content is excerpted from "Nongxiao Bee: 2024 China Wheat Cost and Benefit Analysis Report", the full text of the report is about 14,000+ words, including 38 charts.
Key takeaways from the report
1.From the perspective of domestic production situation, in 2023, China's wheat planting area will be 35,44080,000 acres (about 3.)5.4 billion mu), a year-on-year increase of about 046%。The yield per unit area is 3854 kg mu, a year-on-year decrease of about 128%。The output was 136.59 million tons (about 1.).370,000 tons), a year-on-year decrease of about 082%——Affected by the increase in planting area and other comprehensive factors, although China's wheat output showed a downward trend with the yield per unit area, the decline in output was slightly smaller than that per unit area. China's wheat planting area and output maintain the production structure of "winter wheat" and "spring wheat" all year round.
2.From the perspective of production areas, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, among the 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) in the country, except for "Hainan Province", the remaining 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) are involved in the large-scale production of wheat, among them, the wheat planting area and output of "Henan Province, Shandong Province and Anhui Province" rank among the top 3 in the country all year round - the total wheat planting area in these three regions will reach 18,803 in 2022070,000 mu, with a total output of 8176170,000 tons, with a total output value of 2445100 million yuan. From the perspective of consumption scale, China's wheat consumption in 2022 will be 144 million tons (about 1.).4.4 billion tons), with a global share of about 1834%, ranking first in the world. From the perspective of scale, China's wheat imports in 2022 will be 9.5 million tons, accounting for about 4 percent of global wheat imports in 202269%, ranking 4th in the world; Only 900,000 tonnes were exported, accounting for less than 1% of global wheat exports in 2022 (about 0.).43%), ranking relatively low.
3.From the perspective of cost and benefit, in recent years, the total cost per mu and the total output value of wheat in China have shown a fluctuating and increasing trend. In 2022, the total cost of wheat per mu in China has increased to 114079 yuan, of which the production cost accounts for as much as 7884% - in the composition of production costs in 2022, 4907% for material and service costs, 2977% is labor costs, and the top 3 sub-costs are: household labor discounts, fertilizer costs, and leasing operation costs; The total output value per mu has increased to 156671 yuan; In terms of production areas, in 2022, the top 3 total cost per mu of wheat in China are: Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Gansu, and the top 3 total output value per mu are: Henan, Shandong, and Anhui; Compared with the United States, China's wheat "yield", "net profit", "total cost" and "total output value" per mu are higher than those of the United States all year round.
Foreword
Wheat is one of the earliest cultivated crops in the world, originated in the Middle East, has a history of nearly 5,000 years of cultivation in China, and is known as "the oldest grain of mankind" and "the ancestor of all grains", and plays an important role in people's production and life.
Based on the data of China's wheat planting area, yield, distribution of production areas, market, cost and benefit accumulated in the operation process of Nongxiao bee, this paper analyzes the cost and benefit of wheat in China from the aspects of wheat production scale, production area distribution, wheat market structure, trend and cost benefit, so as to provide reference for the main body and social service organizations engaged in scientific research, breeding, planting, processing, warehousing, packaging, transportation, sales and other activities of the whole wheat industry chain.
1.Analysis of domestic forms of production
1.1.Production trends
In 2023, China's wheat planting area will be 35,44080,000 acres (about 3.)5.4 billion mu), compared with 35,277 in 2022750,000 mu (about 3.).5.3 billion mu) increased by 163050,000 mu, an increase of about 0.46%；The wheat output was 136.59 million tons (about 1.).3.7 billion tons), compared with 13,772 in 2022340,000 tons, down 113340,000 tons, a decrease of about 082%。
Figure 1: Trends in wheat planting area and yield in China.
Data**: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Nong Xiao Bee abeedatacom）
In late May 2023, Henan Province and other places were affected by severe "bad rain" weather, resulting in insufficient light at the filling stage, a decrease in 1000-grain weight, and germination of wheat at the maturity stage4 kg mu, compared with 390 in 20224 kg mu decreased by 5 kg mu, a decrease of about 128%。
Figure 2: Trend of wheat yield per unit area in China.
Data**: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Nong Xiao Bee abeedatacom）
1.2.Production distribution
1.2.1.Regional planting distribution
In 2023, China's wheat planting will be mainly concentrated in the main producing areas of Huanghuaihai and North China - the planting area is about 267 million mu, accounting for about 79% of the national wheat planting area in 202366%；The wheat planting area in the northwest producing area is about 3499950,000 mu, accounting for about 10 percent of the national wheat planting area in 202344%；The wheat planting area in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is about 1816950,000 mu, accounting for about 542%；The wheat planting area in the southwest producing area is about 15 million mu, accounting for about 448%。
Figure 3: Regional distribution of wheat planting in China in 2023.
Data**: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Nong Xiao Bee abeedatacom）
1.2.2.Provincial distribution
1.2.2.1.Area and production distribution.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, among the 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) in the country, except for "Hainan Province", the remaining 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) are involved in the large-scale production of wheat, among which, "Henan Province, Shandong Province, Anhui Province" wheat planting area and output rank among the top three in the country all year round.
Taking the data of 2022 as an example, Henan Province, as the "core area of grain production" and the "main pig and poultry producing province" of the country, has a booming supply and demand of wheat industry, and the wheat seed production capacity and production scale rank first in the country, with a planting area of 8,523 in 2022680,000 mu, with an output of 3,812710,000 tons, in 2022 the national wheat planting area (35,277750,000 mu) and yield (13,772340,000 tons) respectively. 68%；Shandong Province has a planting area of 6005330,000 mu, output 2641190,000 tons ranked second, accounting for the proportion of wheat planting area and output in the country in 2022. 18%；Anhui Province with a planting area of 4274060,000 mu, output 1722270,000 tons ranked third, accounting for the proportion of wheat planting area and output in the country in 2022. 51% - Henan Province, Shandong Province, Anhui Province "The total wheat planting area in the three places in 2022 will reach 18,803070,000 mu, with a total output of 8176170,000 tons, which will account for the total proportion of wheat planting area and output in the country in 2022. 37%。
Figure 4: Distribution of China's wheat "planting area" and "yield" by province in 2022.
Data**: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Nong Xiao Bee abeedatacom）
1.2.2.2.Distribution of output value.
According to the data of the China Rural Statistical Yearbook, in 2022, China's wheat output value will be 4,097300 million yuan, compared with 3432 in 2021800 million yuan, an increase of 664500 million yuan, an increase of about 1936%。In terms of provinces, Henan Province is relatively the highest, reaching 1147600 million yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the country (about 28.).01%), compared with 943 in 2021100 million yuan, an increase of 204500 million yuan, an increase of about 2168%；Shandong Province with 773900 million yuan ranks second, accounting for about 18 percent in the country89%, compared with 651 in 2021300 million yuan, an increase of 122600 million yuan, an increase of about 1882%；Anhui Province with 523600 million yuan ranks third in the country, accounting for about 12 in the country78%, compared with 441 in 2021500 million yuan, an increase of 82100 million yuan, an increase of about 186%；The output value of wheat in the rest of the provinces in 2022 will be less than 50 billion yuan.
Figure 5: China's wheat "output value" in 2022 by province.
Data**: China Rural Statistical Yearbook Graphic: Nongxiaobee abeedatacom）
2.Analysis of international status
2.1.Planting scale: 3rd in area and 1st in yield
According to the latest data from the United Nations FAO database, in 2021, the wheat harvest area in China was 35,35260,000 acres, the total harvested area of wheat in the world (331139610,000 acres) with a specific gravity of about 1068%, ranking third in the world, with a difference of 12,062 with India (474.15 million mu), which ranks first in the world40,000 acres; The wheat yield was 1369460,000 tons, ranking first in the world, and the global wheat output (77,087710,000 tons) in the specific gravity of about 1776%；It is 2,735 higher than India (109.59 million tons), which ranks second60,000 tons.
Figure 6: Top 10 countries and regions in the world in terms of harvested area and production in 2021.
Data**: United Nations FAO database Mapping: Abeedatacom）
2.2.Consumption scale: No. 1 in the world
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, in 2022, global wheat consumption was 78,51010,000 tons (about 7.)8.5 billion tons), and there are only 3 countries and regions with a consumption scale of more than 100 million tons: China, the 27 countries of the European Union, and India.
China's wheat consumption in 2022 is 144 million tons (about 1.).4.4 billion tons), with a global share of about 1834%, compared with the 27 countries of the European Union, which ranked second in the world in wheat consumption in 2022 (109.25 million tons, about 1.25 million tons0.9 billion tons) 34.75 million tons higher.
Figure 7: Comparison of global wheat-consuming countries and regions in 2022.
Data**: USDA Mapping: Abeedatacom）
2.3.International ** scale: The import volume ranks 4th in the world, and the export ranking is relatively low
According to the data of the World ** Organization database, in 2022, the global wheat import volume was 2025860,000 tons, and the export volume is 20,86510,000 tons, with a net export volume of 60650,000 tons. China imported 9.5 million tonnes of wheat, accounting for about 469%, ranking 4th in the world, a difference of 1.5 million tons from Egypt (11 million tons), which ranked first in the world in global wheat imports in 2022; The export volume is only 900,000 tons, accounting for about 043%, ranking 12th in the world, with a net import of 8.6 million tons, a difference of 41.1 million tons from Russia, which ranked first in the world in wheat exports in 2022 (42 million tons).
Figure 8: Comparison of import and export volumes of major wheat**-related countries and regions in the world in 2022.
Data: World Organization Database Mapping: Abeedatacom）
3.Cost benefits
3.1.The Production** Index has remained above 100 for six consecutive years
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, since 2013, China's wheat production index has shown a fluctuating growth trend as a whole, with the minimum value being 94 in 20161, the maximum is 112 in 20228。From 2017 to 2022, China's wheat production** index has remained above 100 for six consecutive years.
Since 2022, affected by factors such as the delay of the epidemic, economic downturn, extreme weather, and geopolitical conflicts, international food has fluctuated frequently and sharply. In order to stabilize ration production and consolidate the foundation of food security, the relevant departments of the state comprehensively considered factors such as grain production costs, market supply and demand, domestic and foreign production and industrial development, and appropriately raised the minimum purchase of wheat, and the wheat production index increased by 12 percent year-on-year8. Compared with the year-on-year decline of corn and soybeans, it shows a significantly different change trend.
Figure 9: Comparison of wheat, corn and soybean production indices in recent years**.
Data**: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Nong Xiao Bee abeedatacom）
3.2.The total cost per mu fluctuates and increases, and the production cost accounts for nearly 80%.
2017 In 2022, the total cost per mu of wheat in China has been increasing, from 1007 in 201764 yuan per mu fluctuation rose to 1140 in 202279 yuan mu, an increase of 1321%, with an average annual total cost per mu of 104294 yuan mu. In 2022, the largest proportion of the total cost per mu is the production cost, accounting for 7884%, followed by land costs, accounting for 2116%。
Figure 10: Composition of total cost per mu of wheat in China from 2017 to 2022.
Data**: Compilation of National Agricultural Product Cost and Benefit Data Drawing: Agricultural Bee Abeedatacom）
2017 In 2022, the proportion of wheat material and service costs, labor costs and land costs in the total cost of wheat in China increased from 2017. 55% became 2022. 77% and 2116%, of which the proportion of material and service expenses increased by 554 percentage points, the proportion of labor costs decreased by 614 percentage points, the proportion of land cost increased by 06 percentage points. With the large-scale promotion of machinery to labor substitution action, the labor cost of wheat production and its proportion in the total cost has decreased significantly, and the substitution effect of agricultural machinery on labor has significantly exceeded the labor force, and the production efficiency has been significantly improved.
3.3.Comparison with U.S. cost-effectiveness
3.3.1.China's "total cost" per mu is higher than that of the United States all year round, with a gap of more than 600 yuan
The total cost of wheat in China has always been higher than that of the United States, and from 2008 to 2022, the total cost of wheat in China increased from 49855 yuan per mu increased to 114079 yuan mu, an increase of 12882%, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 609%；The total cost of wheat in the United States ranged from $31762 yuan per mu increased to 47743 yuan mu, an increase of 5031%, with an average annual compound growth rate of about 295%。In terms of absolute disparity, the cost of wheat in China in 2022 is 2 of that of the United States39 times.
Figure 11: Trends in the average "total cost" of wheat per acre in China vs. in the United States.
Data**: National Compendium of Agricultural Costs and Benefits, USDA Center for Economics (ERS) Graphic: Abeedatacom）
3.3.2.The "gross output value" per mu is higher than that of the United States
From the perspective of output value, the average output value of wheat per mu in China fluctuated and remained at a high level, exceeding 1,000 yuan per mu for the first time in 2014 and reaching 1,05296 yuan mu, fluctuating around 1,000 yuan mu in 2015 and 2020, which is related to the acquisition policy of the city implemented by China. 2021 In 2022, due to the impact of the wheat market**, it increased for two consecutive years.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Center for Economic Research (ERS), since 2008, the average "gross output value" of wheat in the United States has been lower than that of China's wheat per acre. The year with the smallest gap was in 2008, when the average "gross yield" of wheat in the United States was 38222 yuan, with 663 in China06 yuan difference of 28084 yuan; The year with the largest relative gap was in 2022, when the average "gross yield" of wheat in the United States was 43097 yuan, with 1566 in China71 yuan, a difference of 113574 yuan.
Figure 12: Trends in the average "gross output value" of wheat per mu in China vs. the United States.
Data**: National Compendium of Agricultural Costs and Benefits, USDA Center for Economics (ERS) Graphic: Abeedatacom）
3.3.3.China's "net profit" per mu is higher than that of the United States all year round
From the perspective of income level, except for 2012 and 2018, the average net profit per mu of wheat in China is higher than that of the United States, but in 2008 and 2018, it generally showed a downward trend, from 164 in 200851 yuan per mu decreased to -159 in 201841 yuan mu, although there was a rebound in 2019 and 2020, it was still at the breakeven critical point. The reason for this is that the production cost of wheat in China has continued to rise since then. Therefore, reducing the cost of wheat production is bound to become an important development direction for China to enhance wheat competitiveness. 2021 In 2022, due to the impact of the market**, net profit will rise, increasing for two consecutive years.
According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Center for Economic Studies (ERS), except for 2008, 2011 and 2012, the average "net profit" per mu of wheat in the United States has been in the red all year round; In 2022, the average "net profit" per acre of wheat in the United States was -4646 yuan, and the average "net profit" per mu of wheat in China (425.).92 yuan) is a difference of 47238 yuan.
Chart 13: Trend of average "net profit" per mu of wheat in China vs. the United States.
Data**: USDA Center for Economics (ERS) Graphic: Abee Abeedatacom）
The content is excerpted from "Nongxiao Bee: 2024 China Wheat Cost and Benefit Analysis Report", the full text of the report is about 14,000+ words, including 38 charts.