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Macro Information:2024 ** No. 1 document announced; **Premier Li Qiang recently signed an order promulgating the "Coal Mine Safety Production Regulations", which will come into force on May 1, 2024; 31 provinces and cities have announced their 2024 GDP targets, and the top three economic provinces Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong have anchored their 2024 GDP growth targets at 5%; In 2023, the profit of the steel industry will increase by 1573%；The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week was 2240,000, up to a two-month high.
Data Tracking:In terms of funds, the central bank's open market achieved a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan this week. Week-on-week, the operating rate of 247 blast furnaces surveyed by Mysteel this week decreased by 04%；The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants in the country increased by 15%；Coking coal** remained stable, and the average daily retail sales of passenger cars for rebar, iron ore, electrolytic copper, cement, and concrete were 690,000 units, an increase of 136%; BDI fell by 73%。
Financial Markets:In terms of commodities, the main commodities of this week are *** except ***177% and the rest are **. Globally, China and Europe are basic, and U.S. stocks are basic. In the foreign exchange market, the dollar index closed at 10391，**0.43%。
1. Macro information
(1) Hot spotsThe Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on January 31, and the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China presided over the meeting. The meeting emphasizedIt is necessary to grasp the primary task of high-quality development and deepen reform and opening upEnsure the implementation of the key tasks determined by the economic work conference, and promote the economy to achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth. *Prime Minister Li Qiang recently signed the *** order,The Regulations on Work Safety in Coal Mines were promulgated(hereinafter referred to as the "Regulations"), which will come into force on May 1, 2024. The "Regulations" are formulated to strengthen the work of safe production in coal mines, prevent and reduce safety accidents in coal mine production, and ensure the safety of people's lives and property. The Regulations consist of 6 chapters and 76 articles.
In 2024, the first document was announced, proposing a "roadmap" for effectively promoting the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas. The full text consists of six parts, including: ensuring national food security, ensuring that there is no large-scale return to poverty, improving the level of rural industry development, improving the level of rural construction, improving the level of rural governance, and strengthening the party's overall leadership over the "three rural" work.
Since mid-January, the local two sessions have been held intensively. The implementation of the deepening and upgrading of the reform of state-owned enterprises has become the focus of the reform and development of state-owned assets in many provinces this year. Among them,Consolidating and deepening institutional reforms, integrating and reorganizing, and accelerating the layout of strategic emerging industries have become high-frequency words.
Pu Chun, deputy director of the State Administration for Market Regulation, said that the construction of a unified national market will be acceleratedVigorously eliminate administrative monopolies and local protection, and promote the elimination of policies and measures that hinder the unified market and fair competitionGuarantee the right of business entities to operate independently. Investigate and deal with all kinds of monopoly and unfair competition behaviors in accordance with the law, not only give full play to the scale advantages of large enterprises, promote the enhancement of core competitiveness, but also protect the development and innovation vitality of small and medium-sized enterprises.
In 2023, China's industrial enterprises above designated size will achieve a total profit of 76,858300 million yuan, down 23%，The decline was 2 percent narrower than that from January to November1 percentage point. In December 2023, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 16% year-on-year8%, which is a positive growth for five consecutive months.
According to data from the Ministry of FinanceThe total operating income of state-owned enterprises in 2023 will be 857306100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%；The total profit of state-owned enterprises is 46332800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74%；The taxes payable by state-owned enterprises are 58745800 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 05%。At the end of December, the asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises was 646%, up 03 percentage points.
China's manufacturing PMI was 49 in January2%, up 02 percentage points,The level of prosperity in the manufacturing industry has rebounded. In January 2024, Caixin Manufacturing PMI recorded 508, the same as the previous month. Since June 2021,For the first time, the index was in expansion territory for three consecutive months.
National Bureau of Statistics:In 2023, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry will achieve a total profit of 564800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1573%；The non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry achieved a total profit of 2930500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 280%；The processing of petroleum, coal and other fuels increased by 269%。
The General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued a notice on printing and distributing several measures to support five key areas including Pudong New Area to build productive Internet service platform clusters. The notice mentions that the key commodity trading service platform will be promoted to focus on the development of data elements and driven by digital technologyDeepen the multi-dimensional application of steel spot, iron ore and other commodity ** indexesWe will build a closed loop of the bulk commodity big data industry, and launch a number of national first-class indices and standards for steel trading and supporting services with international influence.
All 31 provinces and municipalities have released their 2023 GDP data and 2024 GDP targets. From the perspective of GDP, the top three are Guangdong, Jiangsu and ShandongGuangdong has become the first province in the country with an annual GDP exceeding 13 trillion yuan, and its economic aggregate has ranked first in the country for 35 consecutive years. Judging from the 2024 GDP targets finalized by each province, the vast majority of provinces are not less than 5%. Among them, Hainan and ** both set the growth target for 2024 at about 8%, which is the highest in the country. Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong, the top three major economic provinces, have all anchored their GDP growth targets for 2024 at 5%.However, there are slight differences in the specific expressions, with 5% in Guangdong, and more than 5% in Jiangsu and Shandong.
The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that in the week ended Jan. 27,The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States is 2240,000, the highest since the week of November 11, 2023It is estimated at 2120,000 people, the previous value was 2140,000 people.
(2) Quick overview of hot spots
The Ministry of Finance released data thatIn 2023, 9,337.4 billion yuan of local ** bonds will be issued nationwideAmong them, 3,347.4 billion yuan of general bonds and 5,990 billion yuan of special bonds. As of the end of December 2023, the balance of local ** debt across the country was 407373 billion yuan, which was controlled within the limit approved by the National People's Congress. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has further enhanced the securities lending mechanism. The first is to completely suspend the lending of restricted shares; The second is to adjust the market-based declaration of refinancing securities from real-time availability to next-day availability, restricting the efficiency of securities lending and lending. The first measure has been in place since January 29 and the second since March 18.
The state *** announced that from 24 o'clock on January 31,Domestic gasoline and diesel ** increased by 200 yuan per ton.
In 2023, China's general public budget revenue will exceed 21 trillion yuanGrowth of 64%；General public budget expenditures amounted to 2746 trillion yuan, an increase of 54%。
According to data released by the central bank, in January 2024, the China Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China added a net of 150 billion yuan of new mortgage supplementary loans, and the balance of mortgage supplementary loans at the end of the period was 3,402.2 billion yuan.
According to the ** Meteorological Observatory,From January 31st to February 5th, there will be a wide range of continuous rain, snow and freezing weather in the central and eastern parts of China, and 10 provinces will have blizzards or heavy snowfallsThe cumulative snowfall in Henan, Shandong, Hubei and other places is extreme, and freezing rain will occur in five provinces: Henan, Hubei, Anhui, Hunan and Guizhou.
The State Council Information Office held a press conference on fiscal revenue and expenditure in 2023. The Ministry of Finance said that it will make good use of the relevant treasury bond fundsContinue to arrange a certain scale of local special bonds, and appropriately increase the scale of investment within the budgetGive full play to the amplification effect of first-class investment.
The IMF** global economy will grow by 31%，This is an increase of 02 percentage points,The policy rates of the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will remain at current levels until the second half of 2024. Thereafter, the policy rate will gradually fall as inflation approaches target. The Bank of Japan will maintain an overall accommodative stance.
ADP employment in the United States increased by 10 in January70,000 peopleAn increase of 14 is expected50,000, the previous value increased by 1640,000 was revised to an increase of 1580,000 people.
The Fed kept the target range for the Fed's interest rate at 525% to 550%, in line with market expectations. The statement removed language that hinted at further interest rate hikes in the futureThe Fed does not expect it to be appropriate to cut interest rates until it is more confident that inflation will fall to target, he said.
The U.S. Treasury Department estimates the size of net borrowing from January to MarchFrom US$816 billion announced at the end of October, it was revised down to US$760 billion.
The Council of the European Union announced on January 29 that it would putEconomic sanctions against Russia have been extended for another 6 months until July 31, 2024.
Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points to 1125%，The 50 basis point decline is expected to continue in the next few meetings.
2. Data tracking(1) Funds
(2) Industry data
3. Overview of the financial market
That week,In terms of commodity **,Main commodities *** except ***177% and the rest are **. Among them, ** had the highest decline, reaching 775%。Global** aspect,China and Europe **basic**, US stocks**. Among them, the Dow Jones rose the most, reaching 143%；The STAR 50 saw the highest decline of 974%。In terms of the foreign exchange market,The U.S. dollar index closed at 10391，**0.43%。
Fourth, the key data for next week
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