Soochow **shares***Zeng Duohong, Guo Yanan, and Xu Chengrong recently conducted research on Hoymiles shares and released a research report "2023 Performance Express Comments: Q4 Micro-inversion was flat month-on-month, and energy storage revenue did increase high; 24 years back to high growth! This report gives Hoymiles a ** rating with a current share price of 21429 yuan.
Hoymiles shares (688032).
Investment Essentials. Event: The company will achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 52 billion yuan, a decrease of 237%；Deduct non-net profit 53.5 billion yuan, an increase of 381%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent in 2023Q4 is 10.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 3869%, a month-on-month increase of 5606%；Deduct non-net profit 15.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 700%, a month-on-month increase of 21757%。The performance exceeded expectations; In 2023Q4, the provision of equity incentives will be accelerated, and the operating performance will be better.
Micro-inverter shipments were flat month-on-month, and gross profit margin remained firm: In 2023, the company shipped about 1.34 million micro-inverters, an increase of 15% year-on-year, of which 220,000 units were shipped in 2023Q4, -48% -4% year-on-year; In addition, DTU shipped 230,000 units+ throughout the year, an increase of 14% year-on-year, and 450,000 units, -30% -47% year-on-year. The gross profit margin of microinverter remained at about 50%; In 2023, Europe will account for 60% (Germany will account for 50% of Europe), North America and Latin America will account for 15% and 15%. We expect dealers' inventories to be cleared by the end of 2024Q1 or the beginning of 2024Q2, and we expect to ship 1.6 million to 1.8 million units of microinverters for the whole year, an increase of 19%-34% year-on-year.
Centralized revenue of energy storage system and high revenue growth month-on-month: The company's energy storage system revenue in 2023 will be about 300 million yuan, of which we expect revenue of 200 million yuan+ in 2023Q4, 600%+ month-on-month, mainly due to the impact of the rhythm of energy storage system project confirmation; With the gradual increase in scale, the gross profit margin has gradually increased. In 2024, the energy storage project of will be delivered, and it will continue to contribute to growth.
Equity incentive impact expenses and performance after deduction increased year-on-year: In 2023, due to the termination of the implementation of the 2022 ** incentive plan, the accrued share payment expenses will not be reversed, so the confirmed payment expenses will be accelerated in 2023Q4 to exceed 50 million, and the total incentive expenses in 2023 will be 10.8 billion yuan, deducting the impact of equity incentives, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 will be 62.8 billion yuan, an increase of 1554%。
Earnings** and Investment Ratings: Considering that Europe is in the destocking phase, we downgrade our 2023-2025 earnings** to 52/8.3/13.500 million yuan (2023, 2024, 2025, the previous value is 6.)0/9.2/14.400 million yuan), year-on-year -237% 59% 63%, considering that the company's micro-inverter shipments in 2024 will maintain high growth and energy storage volume, give 30 times PE in 24 years, and maintain the "** rating."
Risk warning: competition intensifies, policies are less than expected.
*According to the calculation of the research report data released in the past three years, the research team of CITIC Hua Pengwei has conducted in-depth research on the stock, and the average accuracy of the past three years is as high as 8562%, and its ** attributable net profit in 2023 is a profit of 60.9 billion, **PE converted according to the current price is 2932。
The latest profit** breakdown is as follows:
A total of 7 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, with 4 ratings ** and 2 overweight ratings. The average institutional price target over the last 90 days is 30184。
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