United States"Horror data"Breaking through 5,000 points, where is the dawn of salvation?
This week, everyone's attention was focused on the release of the US GDP index, while ignoring the release of an economic index in the US, which is also known as "terrible".
Based on a combination of sources, we believe that it is highly likely that the Fed will be forced to make a decision that is even more surprising compared to the economic figures.
This week, the United States was the first to release the GDP figures, and all eyes were on this number as inflation was higher than the market expected.
Everyone expected inflation to be as smooth as expected** and the Federal Reserve to take the holiday as expected, but sadly, that expectation was dashed.
After the release of the PI data, not to mention the rate cut in March, it was a big drop in interest rates in May.
But then the U.S. will release another sales figure for January. Over the past few years, the retail sales figure has been considered a terrible number, largely because the rise in US GDP has been led by consumption. It's a monthly statistic that gives a general idea of the future of the United States.
Historically, when retail sales numbers fell sharply, it usually signaled a disappointing set of economic indicators and a high likelihood of a recession.
The retail trade report for January showed a decrease of 08 percentage points, significantly lower than the previous forecast of 0The 1% drop was almost the biggest drop in a year.
This means that consumer spending has slowed significantly, while the main factors supporting strong growth in the United States have also changed significantly.
In fact, the week's statistics are contradictory.
The release of the composite index means that inflation in the United States is still stubborn, which is a very hawkish sign that the federal ** is unlikely to lower interest rates.
However, with the release of retail sales figures, the US economy remains strong, and the prolonged high interest rates will not be without its damage. So it's a more dovish sign that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates to prevent more high-interest rate shocks.
The S&P 500 stood above 5,000 again after the release of the retail report and closed strongly at 5,029 points, hinting at the belief that the US retail sales numbers will increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
But a strange scene appeared.
Following the release of the CME index, the Fed was expected to delay a rate cut. However, after the release of the retail sales figures, there was no movement, and there was no possibility of a rate cut.
This is a life-saving straw, and now it has failed, where can the United States look for the next life-saving straw?
Then, the latest inflation report released in the United States further suppressed the room for interest rate cuts. The economic growth rate in January exceeded the market's ** value and was 09%, while the monthly growth rate is 03%, also better than expected.
The previous monthly growth rate fell by 01%, and now it has risen by 03%, which means that GDP growth is not declining continuously, but is rising month-on-month.
Economic experts in the United States have also become worried. As a result, Citigroup sounded a serious alarm: the US economy will enter a depression by the end of the year.
In addition, we note that some analysts have already anticipated a possible surprise increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Strategic analysts at Société Générale said that if inflation unexpectedly rises or jobs remain tight, the possibility of a new rate hike by the Federal Reserve cannot be ruled out.
Previously, the Federal Reserve Board suspended interest rates at the same time as they restarted them, but they stopped quickly, and there is a high probability that there will be a next one.
The U.S. is anxiously awaiting the Fed's interest rate cut, but when interest rates rise to a certain level, the U.S. economy will fall into a depression.