The law of the dark forest of A shares

Mondo Science Updated on 2024-02-01

The weekend's positive performance lasted for about two minutes this morning, and then turned downward, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 still slightly ** intraday, while other indices basically went all the way down. In particular, the ChiNext index and the CSI 2000 both fell by 349%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange fell 658%, Kechuang 50 fell 279%, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell 197% and 263%, CSI 300 fell 09%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,900 points again, closing at 2,88336, down 092%。In addition, it should be noted that the GEM index and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 have hit a new low again!

The author also posted this chart last week, in fact, in the weak ** trend, the lower band of the trend channel can hold is already good, and there is always not much hope for the breakthrough of the upper band. And on January 25, which was the big rise last Thursday night, the author wrote in the article "Strong**! 100 shares up limit! Three Yang Lines Convert Faith! Analysis:

At this position, there are two possibilities for the future market trend, one is that the trend of the Shanghai Stock Exchange at the technical level is blocked and begins to enter the **; Second, the market will reach more than 900 billion tomorrow and challenge the 3,000-point position. The author is biased towards the first possibility, because in the past three days, **since the low** has been nearly 200 points, **although the momentum is strong, it has been biased to the peak, and it is more likely to enter the **equilibrium next.

Last Friday's and today's trend to some extent verified the author's inference, last night's article "The market is restless, "people's hearts" are also moving", the author also reminded the central enterprises to rise sharply (bail out) and the first performance of private enterprises, so that everyone should be psychologically prepared. I didn't expect to reappear today's general decline market, **up to 4,821, **only 480; And the down limit** reached 85, and the limit ** was only 33.

At present, the GJD team has undoubtedly become the focus of the market and has also become a slot, before the shot, everyone said that they would only release empty guns, and now everyone said that they would only pull the SSE 50 and CSI 300, including the ** of central enterprises since last week. In fact, GJD's bailout is not destined to be a "good errand", more than 5,000 **, none of which to buy, or even to avoid suspicion of buying any index.

A few days ago, the author read a Weibo and said**It also follows the law of the dark forest, which is a cosmic survival law mentioned in science fiction** "The Three-Body Problem", talking about the universe is like in the dark forest, there are various civilizations, and each civilization is trying its best to protect itself and is ready to destroy others at any time. Once an article reveals itself, other civilizations will attack it, so the best way to protect yourself is to hide yourself.

Indeed, before the private equity witch Li Bei publicly shouted to force short, but she was forced to the net worth warning; Including the public offering** once it sells in a bull market year, it is basically the apex of that bull market; There are also shareholders who have opened accounts and the number of accounts has skyrocketed, and everyone on the streets and alleys is talking about **, and it often becomes an "indicator" for the end of **, because these data have exposed "themselves". What about GJD's bailout? It seems that pulling the SSE 50 and the CSI 300 is an inevitable choice, limited in the bullet to protect the index, so that everyone can gradually restore confidence, and the market value management of central enterprises is naturally speculated that GDJ may buy central enterprises, and the result is that everyone rushed together. In just a few days, these behemoths have risen a lot, and the largest increase in 5 days has been nearly 30%.

Therefore, GJD seems to be a "bright card" anyway, which exacerbates the difficulty of its bailout, and everyone wants to save their positions. So if you guess it all, it's not a bailout, it's a bailout, it's a bailout.

Today, Wind QuanA traded 815.1 billion, and the northbound funds once flowed out of more than 6 billion in the intraday and then returned, with a net outflow of 59.2 billion. **There are only three sectors: banks, household appliances, and food and beverages, and the power equipment sector fell 431% hit a new low, with a fall limit and a decline of more than 10%**There are 18, TCL Zhonghuan issued a performance forecast last Friday night: the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 to be 4.2 billion yuan - 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 296%-38.4%。In the first three quarters, TCL Zhonghuan's net profit attributable to the parent company reached 618.8 billion yuan, reaching 16 in the third quarter alone5.2 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, TCL Zhonghuan is expected to lose 13 percent in the fourth quarter8.8 billion yuan-198.8 billion yuan.

For the precipitous decline in performance in the fourth quarter, TCL Zhonghuan explained that with the release of production capacity in all links of the photovoltaic industry chain, the terminal installed capacity and upstream ** are out of balance, and the expansion of production capacity has led to intensified competition and competition, and the industrial chain has fluctuated downward, and profit margins have been further compressed.

The top decliner also included communications -416%, computer-352%, media-337%, social services -316%。In the Shanghai sector today, there are 12 companies with a limit and an increase of more than 10%, and 26 companies with a limit and a decline of more than 10%. WuXi AppTec continued to fall to the limit, and Mindray Medical fell 539%, BYD fell 399% new low, optical modules also fell sharply, Liante Technology fell 20%, Yuanjie Technology fell 1844%, Xinyisheng fell 1404%, Zhongji Innolight fell 1047%……Keep watching.

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