If Ma Tan guards the street pavilion, can Shu Han conquer Longxi and use it as the base camp of the Eastern Expedition? This assumption has sparked countless speculations and discussions in the minds of later generations. However, even if we give Ma Tan the assumption that he will defend the street pavilion, Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition will not be able to make subversive progress.
The gains and losses of the street pavilion are certainly related to the timing of the retreat of Shu Han and the scale of population transfer, but the course of history cannot be determined by a single factor. In the glorious start of Zhuge Liang's first Northern Expedition, the three counties of Tianshui, Nan'an, and Anding in Longyou responded one after another, which seemed to indicate the brilliant victory of Shu Han. However, Ma Tan's mistake caused the street pavilion to be lost, and the flames of the Northern Expedition were extinguished in an instant. However, if we look at the war more deeply, we will find that even if the street pavilions are not lost, it is difficult to fundamentally change the course of history.
At the time of Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition, the strength of Shu Han was quite weak compared with Wei and Wu. Land area, population size, and army size are all at a disadvantage. Even in Ma Tan's assumption of defending the street pavilion, Shu Han's forces could hardly compete with the Wei army. At the same time, there were also internal constraints in Shu Han, such as the troops controlled by Li Yan could not be used by Zhuge Liang, which made the Northern Expedition overstretched.
On the other hand, the strength of the Wei State is in stark contrast to that of the Shu Han. At the time of Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition, Wei not only had the original troops in the west, but also the huge reinforcements led by Cao Ei. The strength of the Wei army has put Shu Han at an absolute disadvantage. The emptiness of the Longyou region provided Zhuge Liang with an opportunity to win by surprise, but it also exposed the shortcomings of Shu Han's war strategy and troop deployment.
The purpose of Zhuge Liang's guarding the street pavilion was to delay the westward advance of the Wei army, so as to buy time for the sweep of Longyou. However, the course of history is not so simple. Even if Ma Tan held the Jieting, with the arrival of the main force of the Wei army, it was difficult to maintain the defense line of the Jieting for a long time. In addition to Longxi County, there is still Guo Huai's army stationed in Shangtai in the Longyou area, and the garrison of Liangzhou is also on the way south. In the face of such a powerful enemy, it is unlikely that Zhuge Liang will pacify Longyou before the main force of the Wei army rushes to the street pavilion.
In addition, the road from Guanzhong to Longyou is not only a street pavilion. The Wei army could have gone straight to Qishan from Chencang's old road and threatened the back road of the Shu army. If the Wei army adopts the strategy of dividing the troops into two routes, the Shu army will also fall into the dilemma of dividing the troops. With a far inferior force to the Wei army, this was undoubtedly a dangerous gamble.
Moreover, the overall strength of Wei was far superior to that of Shu Han. Even if the reinforcements led by Cao Rong could not defeat the Shu army for a while, Wei could still continue to send troops to reinforcements. If necessary, Wei could also directly attack Hanzhong and force the Shu army to withdraw. Therefore, even if Ma Tan held the street pavilion, the Shu army still faced great difficulties and the possibility of defeat.
However, the charm of history lies in its inadmissibility. Even if we provide various reasons and bases for Ma Tan's idea of guarding the street pavilion, the trend of history is still full of unknowns and variables. Perhaps, it is this uncertainty and possibility that makes us always full of passion and expectation for historical research and development. Guest, do you think that's the case? You can talk about it in the comment area.
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