The promulgation of the "Opinions" seems to have opened up the "birdcage economy" mentioned in the early years.
The "birdcage economy" emphasizes that the non-public economy can exist, but there must be a margin, which is actually a dynamic margin, that is: to maintain the dominant position of the public economy, and there can be no monopoly of private capital.
In the past, the positioning of the private economy has always been "encouragement, support and guidance". For the first time, the "Opinions" officially used the expression "development and growth", which means that the standardized and orderly governance of private enterprises from the end of the year to the end of the year is over, does it mean that the marginal of the birdcage is opened?
A turning point in history
Since "development and growth" are allowed, how should we view the problem of private capital monopoly?
At a financial conference in Shanghai, Jack Ma said: "If the bank does not change, then we will change the bank."
This can be said to be a historical window of time, and as a result, Jackma did not change the bank, but Ant Financial itself was changed.
Soon after, in the middle of the year, the Wuxi Intermediate People's Court issued a ruling, exposing the capital chain crisis of Evergrande Group, the former leading real estate company, to the majority of netizens. Evergrande's thunderstorm indicates that the property market has peaked, and oversupply is an indisputable fact
Next is the year, month and day, Sima Nan posted: "The Chinese Academy of Sciences sold 1.3 billion state-owned assets for nothing》。There is no conclusion to this incident.
On the day of the year, New Oriental officially announced its retirement!
All these seemingly isolated incidents have a core, that is: a thunderous blow to the disorderly expansion of private enterprise capital.
winter
Perhaps just a coincidence, China's economy has hit a winter.
All the problems and contradictions erupted in the year, and they were held for freeThe decline in corporate profits was a cliff in the fourth quarter of the year, and the Sino-US negotiations were frozen in a de-Chinese wayYouth unemployment is a record high. The year has been greatly repaired, the downward trend of the overall economy has not been completely reversed, and the growth rate has been achieved, which is quite good, but other important indicators are very weak, and the youth unemployment rate has reached three new highs in a row, and the statistical bureau has simply stopped publishing them.
To sum up, the problem can be defined as the divergence between the ** side and the demand side.
This is a rare situation in other economies, and experts generally believe that one of the main problems in the economy is the private sector, and the private sector lacks confidence, and because Minji lacks an equal market position, it has lost the impulse to invest, and the problem facing it in the future is obviously no longer the disorderly expansion of private capital, but the loss of capital.
When there is non-neutral competition in a market, and free competition and full competition are lost, it means that the market is a non-efficient market.
Resources and funds are not flowing to the most efficient enterprises, but by the ownership system to define the direction of the policy, from financial support, market access, tax subsidies to policy dividends, mainly to state-owned enterprises, and state-owned enterprises only support employment, in this way, the role of investment can not be transmitted to the hands of the people, naturally there is a contradiction of insufficient demand.
It is also in this context that the "Opinions" were promulgated, and the direction is obvious, which is to awaken the retreating private capital.
Although the language of the policy allows the private economy to "develop and grow", there is still a question for the private sector that is too nervous psychologically: where is the margin?If this issue is not thoroughly explained, how can the private sector rebuild its confidence?
As a result, we have to do historical reflection.
The symbolism of Ant Financial
Ye Tan said that Ant Financial is a magical company, and there is nothing they can't worry about, so he doesn't comment.
In fact, Ant Financial's small fortune is not a monopoly of private capital.
In the name of high technology, it leveraged the business volume of 100 billion yuan with 3 billion funds, and the net profit of that year was more than 10 billion. Monopoly is not counted, it is somewhat of a karate fighting technique. If it is successfully listed, it is assessed that it can leverage the order of 2 trillion yuan, and even so, compared with the bank, it is the relationship between the big tree and the autumn leaves. The real problem of Ant Financial is that it is universal but not beneficial, saying that it has opened a green channel for small, medium and micro enterprises through big data, and it still uses the bank's money, leaving the profits to itself and the risks to the banks.
Its problem is not a monopoly problem, however, the policy still dealt a heavy blow to the private capital that crossed the border, and the capital either "took capital" or sank, and this outcome cannot be said to have no impact on China's economic development. And Jack Ma's arrogance has become an invitation to the urn, the bank has not been changed, it is Ant Financial itself that has been changed.
Will there be a private capital monopoly in China?
So, there is a question, will there be a private capital monopoly in China?
It's safe to say that zero is possible.
Ant Financial's only 3 billion funds, even if it is listed, can theoretically leverage 2 trillion yuan, compared with banks, it can only be the relationship between ants and elephants, so why is the policy worried about the disorderly expansion of private capital?
The fundamental problem is that for the sake of the nature of the system, it is necessary to ensure the weight of state-owned enterprises in the total economic aggregate. The system determines that the basis of ownership is the public economy, and there is no monopoly of private capital.
In the process of economic recovery in the future, should we still emphasize the institutional nature?
After the governance, the focus of the problem seems to have changed, the three-year epidemic, the private economy is in a difficult period, and the overall economy is also under pressureThe answer is no, what needs to be adjusted in the future is not to give up the birdcage, but in what sense to allow the private economy to "develop and grow"?
It is unlikely that there will be a monopoly of private capital in China, and Ma Yun is no longer the actual controller of Alipay, which is a relief for him, for the times, it is a stage of rectification of private capital, and the current problem is not to prevent the monopoly of private capital, but how to wake up the sunken capital, so that private capital can contribute to China's economy in the difficult autumn.
Under China's system, does private capital really have the ability to form a monopoly?This is also a statement, the purpose is to strengthen the absolute monopoly of state-owned capital, and there is no such problem as the monopoly of private capital. What does Yuan Fang think?