Interpret the growth strategy of the new energy sector
New business strategy: In 2024, electric vehicles are expected to usher in the first year of rapid growth, and the lithium battery material system may usher in major changes, corresponding to power electronics and charging equipment.
Industry Overseas Analysis: In the face of the involution economic background, manufacturing enterprises need to go overseas to seek growth opportunities and high profitability, and the power equipment industry is also concerned. Investment in sub-sectors: power grid investment will become the focus of recommendation in the first half of the year, with special attention to sub-links such as digital distribution network and UHV; At the beginning of the year, there were obvious changes in the bidding of smart meters, and it is necessary to pay attention to the investment logic behind it.
Challenges and opportunities for fast charging of electric vehicles
Limiting factors for the development of electric vehicles: 1) high battery cost and increased burden of fast charging; 2) The cruising range is not as good as that of fuel vehicles, and the actual cruising range is generally nominal.
about 70%; 3) The technology and infrastructure of fast charging piles are backward. Technological progress and cost reduction of battery materials: the competition of car companies has shifted from the best to the best + performance, the launch of fast charging models has accelerated, the energy density of batteries has been improved through optimization, and the technological progress of fast charging piles has provided development momentum.
Pay attention to the materials of fast-charging batteries, especially anode materials and conductive agents, which have an important impact on market demand and cost. Due to the high energy density, the silicon carbon anode may promote the overall improvement of the energy density of the battery.
Composite copper foilInvestment outlook analysis
Composite copper foil industry outlook: Composite copper foil is a cost-effective raw material with a lot of room for permeability improvement, suitable for a variety of material systems, with little change to existing battery formulations, and environmentally compatible. It is estimated that the industry penetration rate is expected to reach 16% and 68% from 2025 to 2023, and the market space will reach the level of 10 billion.
Development trend of leading enterprises: Leading enterprises have made progress in financing and capacity expansion, and some have started mass production and have basically completed testing on the battery side.
In Q1 2023, there may be small-batch orders landed, and the industry will move from thematic hype to fundamental-driven stage in the future.
Analysis of the growth rate of power grid investment: State Grid and China Southern Power Grid have large-scale investment plans, of which the State Grid may invest more than 570 billion yuan in 2024, reaching the fastest growth rate in recent years, which may stimulate related sectors. The investment in the 14th Five-Year Plan of China Southern Power Grid is 523.4 billion yuan.
Global power grid investment pattern and trends
In 2021, the investment in the power grid will be 99.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 66%;In 2022, it will decline to 89.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, indicating that the completion of these two years is not high.
From 2023 to 2025, China Southern Power Grid needs to maintain a compound growth rate of at least 10% to complete the 14th Five-Year Plan, demonstrating high investment growth potential in the next few years. Global grid investment is essentially flat in 2023, reaching $331 billion;
Between 2022 and 2050, smart grid investment will need to reach $764.3 billion per year to meet 1The 5-degree temperature growth limit, which is significantly higher than the current level, shows that the industry has great growth potential.
Investment prospects and opportunities in the new electric industry
Electric vehicles and distribution network development: The electrification of electric vehicles has promoted the transformation of distribution networks, and the amount of electricity consumed has increased significantly. The power generation side has shifted to distributed development, reducing long-distance power transmission, and investment such as Tesla has driven distribution network investment to become a bright spot in the future.
The development trend of the energy Internet: The energy Internet is the ultimate goal of the power grid, and the digitalization of the global power grid investment will increase from 11% to 20%, and automation, communication, cloud infrastructure and SaaS applications will become the focus.
New Energy Investment Opportunities: 2023 Electrolyzer Tender Data 18GW, expected.
In 2024, it will exceed 3GW, and the competitive landscape is tilting towards second- and third-tier enterprises, which is worth paying attention to the competitive dynamics.
New energy cutting-edge technologies and industrial trends
The domestic battery vehicle market performed well, with cumulative sales reaching 180,000 units, bits.
Ranked among the top three in the world. The 14th Five-Year Plan was proposedThe annual promotion target of 50,000 units indicates that the growth rate of battery vehicles will remain rapid in the next two years. The domestic fuel cell technology capability has reached the advanced level, and most of the core components have been independently developed and produced, such as bipolar plates, proton exchange membranes and other key components. The core technology is comparable to that of Japan, and the outlook is optimistic.
Hydrogen power generation has broad prospects, high-efficiency cogeneration has reached more than 90% comprehensive efficiency, and 100-megawatt power generation projects are under construction. If hydrogen gas turbine technology is realized.
The leapfrog development will greatly promote the development of the domestic gas turbine industry.
Inventories bottomed out and demand recovered
At present, the inventory of industrial enterprises is low, the demand recovery is not obvious, and the inventory of industrial enterprises in August 2023 is sluggish, showing a bottom** situation; In Q4 2019, inventory bottomed out and recovered in tandem with demand, and the current inventory is decreasing but the demand side is not recovering significantly; The reasons are mainly related to overseas geopolitical and export factors, and enterprises are more scientific in managing inventories and faster in depletion.
The prosperity of the manufacturing industry is low, bottoming out in Q2 of 2023, but due to continuous policy stimulus, the space and probability of deterioration of the manufacturing industry are not large; The growth rate of orders of public enterprises in the second half of the year was better than that in the first half of the year, and the growth rate of some enterprises reached 30%-40%.
The share of domestic enterprises has increased, forming competition with foreign-funded enterprises, and foreign-funded enterprises have suffered setbacks in the downstream structure, and the domestic market performance is stronger; Inovance's valuation has dropped significantly, and at the bottom of the current economy, it may be a good investment point for investment.
Investment prospects and industry insights for human robots
AL and Humanoid Robot Development: At the end of 2022, the AL technological revolution led to the development of humanoid robots. Humanoid robots are expected to alleviate global labor shortages, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has issued guidance on the development of a product with great potential. Robot products such as Tesla's Optimus are close to mass production, and domestic products are expected to be commercialized after 2025.
Sea Breeze Energy Investment Opportunities: The 23-year Offshore Breeze project has made significant progress, and the 24-year offshore project is expected to start construction as scheduled. It is expected that the new installed capacity will reach 10-15GW in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 67%-114%, and the installed capacity will be 15-20GW in 25 years. Among the upstream products, submarine cables have higher investment flexibility because they are directly related to the sea breeze. Investment direction of the photovoltaic industry: focus on leading enterprises, with cost efficiency and technical advantages, and are expected to enjoy the premium brought by the increase in the market share of n-type silicon cells. In the field of auxiliary materials, it is expected that the increase in the proportion of N-type will drive new technology dividends. The inverter segment will fluctuate around European inventories and shipments, with inventories expected to bottom out in the short term, and shipments are expected to improve marginally.
Annual outlook for the global energy storage market
South Africa Market Situation: South Africa is expected to become the fastest-growing market for householders in the world due to power shortages due to aging power infrastructure and lack of maintenance, and demand for householder products is sustainable, with inventories falling back to normal levels in 2024 and still maintaining rapid growth.
Domestic industrial and commercial savings track situation: domestic industrial and commercial reserves due to a clear economic return model, and subsidy advantages, has been in many provinces with economy, flexible business model, stimulate further investment release, with the decline in system construction costs and electricity price differences, the gross profit margin is expected to remain above 20%.
The U.S. energy storage market: With the decline in interest rates, the U.S. energy storage market is driven by the first-class grid structure and stability requirements, and is optimistic about its continued high growth, with an installed capacity of 25GWh in 2023, doubling year-on-year, and the target of 40-50GWh in 2024 is not difficult, and the medium- and long-term energy storage development prospects in the United States are optimistic.