In 2023, the petroleum coke market will take stock of domestic refineries

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-02-01

In 2023, the surplus of the domestic petroleum coke market will run through the whole year, and the import of imported petroleum coke will fluctuate greatly, coupled with the frequent fluctuations of domestic petroleum coke affected by the adjustment of raw materials, the overall trend will gradually tend to be high-sulfur general goods, the demand side market will be cautious in procurement, and the market transaction atmosphere will be poor, and the inventory of domestic and imported petroleum coke will continue to rise, and even the total inventory will increase to the highest level in recent years.

Data**: Longzhong Information.

According to the statistics of Longzhong Information Market Research Data, by the end of 2023, the petroleum coke inventory of domestic refinery sample enterprises is 15560,000 tons, an increase of 3 percent year-on-year350,000 tons, an increase of 2744%。

In the first quarter of 2023, the refinery petroleum coke inventory continued to be in the accumulation stage, and the domestic refinery delayed the start of coking units was stable, but the downstream demand performance was not good, and the overall shipment speed of refineries slowed down, and the petroleum coke inventory increased to an annual high of 24 in late March820,000 tons. In the second quarter, with the resumption of downstream starts, and some refineries were shut down for maintenance as planned from April to May, domestic resources were reduced, and domestic petroleum coke shipments were supported by supply and demand, and the refinery petroleum coke inventory remained at 8-150,000 tons. In the third quarter, the second wave of maintenance peaks appeared, and the cost of imported petroleum coke was high, and the mentality of merchants reluctant to sell was strong, which was slightly favorable to the shipment of domestic resources, and the inventory of petroleum coke fell to about 80,000 tons again. In the fourth quarter, with the arrival of low-cost imported coke in China, there was a slight impact on domestic petroleum coke shipments, coupled with the narrowing of profits of downstream carbon enterprises, the procurement enthusiasm weakened again, which was negative for petroleum coke shipments and sales, and the inventory of domestic petroleum coke increased slightly.

Data**: Longzhong Information.

Judging from the shipment of domestic petroleum coke, the average production and sales rate of domestic petroleum coke will reach 94 in 202372%, up 404 percentage points.

As can be seen from the chart above, although the procurement operations of downstream enterprises have slowed down, the production and sales rate of petroleum coke at the end of March was the lowest point of the year at 8146%, but the overall production and sales rate of petroleum coke in the first half of 2023 is higher than that of the same period last year. In the first quarter, the trading of petroleum coke market was weak, petroleum coke ** was in a continuous decline stage, and the downstream phased procurement had a great impact on the shipment of petroleum coke market, and the overall production and sales rate of petroleum coke showed a sharp fluctuation. In the second quarter, the domestic petroleum coke production and sales rate reached an annual high in early April, and the early inventory of the refinery also decreased significantly, and the production and sales rate of petroleum coke once increased to 11224%。In the second half of the year, the overall petroleum coke ** was stable and the demand-side market entered the market cautiously, and the production and sales rate of petroleum coke remained at about 90%. Towards the end of the year, with some downstream enterprises having pre-holiday stocking operations, coupled with the fact that production enterprises just need to replenish the warehouse after the rain and snow, the production and sales rate of petroleum coke has rebounded to more than 96%. Market outlook**:

At the beginning of 2024, the amount of domestic petroleum coke will be reduced, the production of low-sulfur petroleum coke will be reduced by 3-40,000 tons per month due to the refinery process adjustment, the procurement enthusiasm of demand-side enterprises will recover, the mainstream market will ship well, the enthusiasm of market signing will increase, and the inventory of petroleum coke will continue to decline slowly. It is expected that the domestic petroleum coke production and sales rate may remain at about 90% in January, and the high domestic coke price will drive the port petroleum coke shipment to improve

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