On the evening of January 30, 2024, a civil aviation charter plane slowly landed on the runway of Changshui Airport in Kunming, Yunnan Province, carrying 10 special "passengers", namely Bai Suocheng, Bai Yingcang, Wei Huairen, Liu Zhengxiang, Liu Zhengmao, Xu Laofa and four other important telecom fraud suspects in northern Myanmar. So far, the wire fraud syndicate that has been entrenched in northern Myanmar, especially in the Kokang region, for many years, and has plagued countless people, has finally been uprooted.
Twenty days ago, in Kunming, Yunnan Province, under the mediation and promotion of the Chinese side, the Burmese army held peace talks with representatives of the three armed organizations of northern Myanmar, including Kokang, De'ang and Rakhine, and reached a formal ceasefire agreement. The two sides agreed to an immediate ceasefire and cessation of hostilities, the disengagement of military personnel, and the settlement of relevant disputes and demands through peaceful negotiations. The two sides pledged not to jeopardize the safety of Chinese border residents and project personnel in Myanmar. The two sides also held consultations on other matters, including ceasefire arrangements.
The nearly 80-day "Operation Hurricane" has inflicted the heaviest defeat on the Myanmar military** since the February 2021 coup. Millions of ** have left their homes, artillery fire has flowed into neighboring countries, and the people are miserable. These bits and pieces of what happened in front of us are also the epitome of this war, which is known as "the longest war after World War II".
On January 31, 2024, the third anniversary of the military coup in Myanmar, the Myanmar Army** issued a statement announcing that it would extend the state of emergency for another six months.
Today, let's cut through the fog and go deep into the jungle to reveal the interests of all parties behind the conflict in Myanmar's civil war.
The "bane" left by British colonization
Myanmar, located in the northwest of Southeast Asia, is the largest country on the Southeast Asian continent. In the 18th century, the Gongbang Dynasty, founded by the Burmese, brought Myanmar to the height of Asia's most prosperous state. In Myanmar, the Burmese make up about 68% of the total population and live mostly in the Central Plains. In addition, there are 134 ethnic minorities, including the Shan, Karen and Mon, most of whom live in mountainous areas with complex terrain.
Current affairs commentator He Liangliang:
Historically, Myanmar was once an ancient civilized country, but since Myanmar became part of British India, Myanmar's fate has changed completely. ”
In the 19th century, the British opened the gates of Burma with guns and shells, and fought fiercely with the Gongbang dynasty three times. In 1886, Burma became another British colony in Asia and was annexed to British India. And in a multi-ethnic context, Britain also adopted very different policies of colonial control over different parts of Myanmar.
After the start of World War II, the conflict in the colonies swept all the people. In February 1947, General Aung San convened a meeting of ethnic leaders in Panglong, Shan State, in Upper Burma, to resolve the escalating ethnic conflict, and signed the Panglong Agreement, which aimed to guarantee the autonomy of all ethnic groups. But with the death of General Aung San, Myanmar has also been plunged into another whirlpool of political struggles after declaring independence.
Xu Liping, researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Center for Southeast Asian Studies
When Ne Win was in power, he tore up the Panglong Accord and in fact pursued this kind of Greater Burmese doctrine, the main core of which was to prioritize the interests of the Burmese people. Compared with ethnic minorities, the Burmese have a natural priority, or a kind of initiative, so this has caused a profound ***
Fierce inter-ethnic tensions continue to heat up, and border ethnic minorities, deprived of their autonomy, have established hundreds of local armed forces, large and small, or "Mindi Wu" for short. Due to the large expenditure on the war, the drug industry has also become the main economy of many civilian forces. The chaotic political ecology and the ongoing civil war have also accelerated the take-down of grey industries in northern Myanmar. Among these people's land warriors, the most well-known Chinese are the Kokang Alliance.
The ups and downs of the life of the "Kokang King" in northern Myanmar.
In 2015, Peng Jiasheng, the "Kokang King" who had disappeared from public view for five years, led his troops to attack Kokang and clashed with the Burmese army.
In 1989, Peng Jiasheng took the lead in announcing an armistice with Myanmar and establishing the First Special Region of Myanmar's Shan State, which retains independent domestic, military, financial and other powers, as well as limited military strength. During the period of Peng Jiasheng's rule in Kokang, he claimed to ban drugs within the Kokang area, so he had a disagreement with the old department of the Communist Party of Burma, and for a time lost control of Kokang, and returned to power with the support of the Burmese army.
Beneath the surface of peace is the turbulence of power struggles and a bit of ignition of conflicting interests. In August 2009, the Myanmar ** army raided Peng Jiasheng's arsenal on the pretext of drug seizure. A few days later, fierce fighting broke out between the Tatmadaw and the Kokang Allied Army. But unlike the coups in the past, Peng Jiasheng at this time faced the defection of capable generals, and many generals, including Bai Suocheng, chose to stand on the side of the ** army and break with Peng Jiasheng.
Associate Professor, Department of Politics and Public Administration, The University of Hong Kong, Han Enze:
Kokang is the smallest of these special zones. In 2008, Myanmar issued a new constitution, which means that all ethnic minority armed forces on the border should be included in Myanmar's national border guards. After the constitution came out, Myanmar had to pick one of the people it considered to be the least capable to be an 'example'. ”
Xu Liping, researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Center for Southeast Asian Studies
Under this tremendous pressure from the Tatmadaw the Tatmadaw at the time, Pak Sot Seng was then the deputy commander-in-chief of the Allied Forces and led his men to voluntarily surrender to the Tatmadaw Tatmadaw on his own initiative. So Bai Socheng suddenly became the new 'Kokang King' in the Kokang region, and the new 'Kokang King' was, to a certain extent, the army subservient to Burma. ”
Peng Jiasheng, who has been in exile for many years, reappeared in the public eye at his 85th birthday party. For years, he has been recruiting troops, trying to get back to Kokang again, but he has repeatedly failed. The military conflict in Kokang over the years is in fact a microcosm of the chaotic political ecology in northern Myanmar. Between the Burmese army and the civilian armed forces, and between the civilian armed forces and the civilian armed forces, there are constant conflicts and contradictions, and artillery fire and fighting coexist. At the same time, the rise of a new wave of gray industries has once again made northern Myanmar the target of public criticism.
Where is the light at the end of the civil war?
In 2019, Myanmar introduced a new Gambling Law, which allows foreigners to legally register and operate casinos in Myanmar, further accelerating the development of the gaming industry in northern Myanmar. Before that, Kokang at the beginning of the millennium, which had the name of "Little Macau", was "revitalized" again through the gaming industry after bidding farewell to the drug industry. The gambling industry has also become another important source of income for Kokang in addition to taxes. With the rapid development of the Internet, locals have also sniffed new business opportunities, including telecom fraud, which is most hated.
Anti-fraud blogger Picture:
In fact, wire fraud began to develop in Taiwan at the earliest, and later moved to Southeast Asia, such as the Philippines and Cambodia, and slowly spread to Myanmar and expanded to other regions. ”
In 2021, a military coup d'état occurred in Myanmar, followed by large-scale demonstrations, and frequent conflicts. The turmoil of the civil war in Myanmar has once again been driven by high emotions and intensified. The political turmoil has also led to the emboldening of the gray industry in northern Myanmar. After Peng Jiasheng left, the growth of the power of several major families in Kokang made the local gray industry occupy the main axis. Northern Myanmar is also like a bottomless black hole, stirring up regional stability, and has gradually become a "criminal paradise" accused by the world.
Criminal lawyer Han Yuefeng:
The fraud groups in northern Myanmar have formed industrialization and monopoly, and have recruited a large number of fraud gangs to settle in through the hardware and building materials city, and then science and technology parks, industrial parks, etc. ”
On October 27, 2023, the "Three Brothers Alliance" of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, led by Peng Jiasheng's son Peng Deren, joined forces with the De'ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army, launched a joint military operation called "Operation Hurricane". In just a few dozen days, as its name "hurricane" captured, a number of strongholds were captured, and a large number of *** were captured, followed by different speculations about the purpose of this civil war. The incessant artillery fire has displaced many people who have been rooted in northern Myanmar for many years.
Current affairs commentator He Liangliang:
A large number of refugees will flee to neighboring countries, often due to the impact of artillery fire, so this will also put pressure on neighboring countries, so the civil war in Myanmar is not only an internal issue of Myanmar, but also a regional problem, especially within ASEAN. Myanmar has also become the only country in ASEAN that regularly experiences civil wars. ”
Associate Professor, Department of Politics and Public Administration, The University of Hong Kong, Han Enze:
Now many people look at the war in northern Burma, and he is not just focused on the war in northern Burma, he is concerned about the political future of the whole country. ”
The international situation is changing, and the civil war in Myanmar has brought new geopolitical risks. Complex contradictions and long-standing armed secession are also tearing apart Myanmar's interior. The abhorrent telecom fraud may still be some way from disappearing completely.
With thousands of years of splendid culture, nearly 100 years of ethnic grievances, and decades of north-south confrontation, Myanmar's future is still full of sighs and variables. Clearing the fog between the jungles, in the face of the torrent of history and the struggle for power, only the heat and humidity of the years seem so eternal.
Editor: Du Siyu.