Although the recent market is not ideal, there is a trend of stabilizing and recovering. Wind data shows that in the period from January 23 to January 29, the Shanghai Composite Index accumulated **461%, SSE 50 cumulative **331%, CSI 300 cumulative **264%。
In the past two or three weeks, there has been an obvious trend of funds entering the market through ETFs, and hundreds of billions of funds have been connected one after another"**Let's take a look at a more intuitive data to know how big this trading volume is: in the first week of 2024 (January 2 to January 5), the total turnover of A-share ETFs is about 1933$6.1 billion;
In the second week (January 8 to January 12), the total turnover of A-share ETFs was about 22550.3 billion yuan;
In the third week (January 15 to January 19) and the fourth week (January 22 to January 26), the turnover increased sharply, reaching 3047 respectively0.8 billion and 32191.1 billion yuan.
Among these ETFs, the CSI 300 ETF took the lead in increasing volume. Wind statistics show that from January 15th to 29th, there were 4 CSI 300 ETFs and 1 SSE 50 ETF with large capital collectives. In just two weeks, the total net inflow of these five ** funds was as high as 1331$2.6 billion.
In less than a month, the shares of the 4 CSI 300 ETFs have skyrocketed to varying degrees, and the tendency of funds is obvious. What does this mean? We look back at history, there have been many times when funds have significantly increased their positions in broad-based ETFs, and after the index reached a stage low, funds took advantage of ETFs to increase their positions significantly, and then the index trend reversed.
In my opinion, at this point in time, the CSI 300 ETF ChinaAMC (510330) can be appropriately allocated. The CSI 300 covers many industries, has a balanced style, and includes weighted leading stocks, which can play a role in driving the investment sentiment of the entire market.
From a valuation perspective, as of January 22, the index price-to-earnings (TTM) and price-to-book ratios of the CSI 300 Index were . 15 times, respectively in the % quantile of the past decade, the former is almost flush with the lowest value in 2014, and the latter has come to the "cheap" moment.
Another sector that Sir is optimistic about is chip semiconductors. Judging from the recently disclosed 2023 performance report, domestic semiconductor equipment companies have benefited from category expansion and downstream customers' strong willingness to localize, with significant growth in revenue and orders, and the semiconductor industry is expected to enter an upward cycle as demand picks up.
According to estimates by the International Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Organization (SEMI), domestic chip manufacturers may add 18 wafer factories in 2024, with a monthly production capacity of 8.6 million pieces, an annual increase of 13%.
From a fundamental point of view, the semiconductor industry is currently showing cyclical growth, and this round of cycle has been downward for nearly 2 years. In terms of valuation, the latest valuation price-to-book ratio of the CNI Chip Index is 342 times, less than more than 99% of the time in the past five years, and the valuation is cost-effective.
The chip ETF (159995) tracks the CNI chip index, and the 30 constituent stocks gather leading companies in materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging and testing in the A-share chip industry, including SMIC, Wingtech Technology, North Huachuang, etc.
The market is also quite optimistic about this sector, and chip ETFs (159995) have received a total of more than 1 billion yuan in net subscriptions since the beginning of this year. From the perspective of institutional investors, the recently disclosed 4Q23 public offering ** position data shows that the position of the semiconductor sector has increased significantly, increasing by 129pct to 728%, and the overweight ratio also increased by 111pct to 385%。
The recovery of consumer electronics is also good for the chip semiconductor industry. In 2024, the industry is expected to recover moderately, on the one hand, Huawei's shipments will increase after the release of new mobile phones, and at the same time, the rest of the Android mobile phone manufacturers in Q4 will release their flagship models one after another, and the demand for consumer electronics is expected to gradually increase.
Soochow ** believes that the recovery of consumer electronics and the trend of domestic substitution caused by independent and controllable demand have jointly driven the demand growth of the domestic upstream semiconductor industry.
The Consumer Electronics ETF (159732) tracks the CNI Consumer Electronics Index and invests primarily in 50 A-share listed companies with business in the consumer electronics industry. From the perspective of the industrial chain, consumer electronics accounts for the highest proportion of downstream demand for chips, more than 60%.
In fact, in the past two years, due to the downturn in the consumer electronics industry, the ** memory chip has also been ** all the way. At present, the market generally expects that consumer electronics on the downstream demand side will usher in a recovery in 2024 according to various data.
Finally, if you don't want to miss this wave or can't grasp the opportunity, you can participate through the SSE 50 ETF (510050), which had a net inflow of 76 last week3.3 billion yuan, with a scale of 9584.2 billion yuan, which is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in the near future.
Now there are 7 trading days before the Spring Festival, and the ** of the Chinese word is estimated to last for a few days, looking forward to the market after the New Year. Approaching the Spring Festival, it is back to the old question, are you willing to hold coins for the festival or hold shares for the holiday? Readers are welcome to leave a message in the comment area.