There are only 4 trading days left before the 2024 Lunar New Year holiday, and the A-share market will be suspended for 10 days during the Spring Festival this year.
The continuous adjustment of the beginning of this year's A** market has greatly affected investor confidence. Many industry insiders tend to operate steadily during the holiday period, and it is recommended to hold bonds for the holiday or hold shares with a high dividend strategy (low valuation, high dividend direction). In addition to high dividends, overseas varieties, infrastructure, travel chains and other directions are also worth paying attention to.
Hold shares for the holidays and choose stable targets.
Judging from the recent performance of the market, as of today**, the main stock indexes have adjusted again after the A-share period** at the end of January.
Based on the judgment that the market will continue to be the best, Zheng Xiaoxia, deputy director and chief economist of Hua'an ** Research Institute, believes that it is a good choice to hold debt during the Spring Festival this year. At present, an easy monetary environment is still needed to support the economic recovery, and the market has strong expectations for subsequent interest rate cuts to support the economy and real estate. With the Federal Reserve likely to start cutting interest rates this year, the external constraints faced by domestic interest rate cuts have weakened, further boosting domestic interest rates downward.
Judging from the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index before and after the Spring Festival in the past ten years, there is no obvious feature of the rise and fall of the A** market in the 5 trading days and 20 trading days before the Spring Festival, but there is an obvious trend after the Spring Festival. From 2014 to 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index had a positive return 7 times in the five trading days after the Spring Festival, and 8 times in the 20 trading days after the Spring Festival. Zheng Xiaoxia believes that you can also choose to hold shares for the holidays, but you can't be too aggressive or pursue flexibility, and there is still allocation value in stable assets or deterministic theme directions.
Chen Li, chief economist and director of the research institute of Sichuan Cai**, said that for investors who choose to hold shares for the holidays, the industry recommends choosing the direction of low valuation and high dividends.
Infrastructure, travel chain, etc. are concerned.
Looking at the recent data, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to the lower edge of the pivot, while M2-M1 continues to expand, and we judge that the high-dividend strategy is still effective in the medium term. Lin Rongxiong, chief strategic analyst of SDIC, said.
Lin Rongxiong also suggested that after the Spring Festival, you can hold the varieties that go to sea. Since late December 2023, the Wind Export** Index and three industry indices with a high proportion of overseas revenue (home appliances, textiles and garments, and light manufacturing) have continued to outperform the market.
Zheng Xiaoxia is also optimistic about the infrastructure sector with a strong cycle, as well as the travel chain with strong certainty before the holiday. It is recommended to focus on building materials (cement), non-metallic materials, environmental protection equipment, building decoration (professional engineering, engineering consulting), environmental governance, new metal materials, gas, etc. This year's return to the hometown is earlier than in previous years, and the performance of the travel chain is expected to continue to improve, focusing on aviation airports, rail transportation, catering and tourism.
Editor-in-charge: Ren Haopeng |Review: Li Zhen |Supervisor: Wan Junwei.
*: China ** newspaper).