January was painfully unforgettable

Mondo Psychological Updated on 2024-02-01

It's 5,000 *** There is still the last trading day left in January, Wind All A fell 10% this year, and only fell 5% last year, and most investors lost far more than last year in a single month this yearThe first month of the year was particularly uncomfortable.

This phenomenon occurs because last year's decline was due to the fact that all the blue-chip stocks that fell last year were high-performing blue chips, the SSE 50 fell the most, and the CSI 2000 still rose last year, and most people did not feel it. By the end of this year, the two reversed, and micro-cap stocks began to make up for the decline before they knew that it hurt, and the speculation funds were withdrawn from the old casino BSE 50 to speculate on smaller overseas ETFs, and the BSE 50 fell 22% this month. From the perspective of historical valuation, after this wave of special valuation,The valuation of small-cap stocks has recovered, and it is also in the historical quantile of about 10% with ** stocks.

In terms of historical quantiles, the valuation of the price-to-book ratio is lower than that of the rolling price-to-earnings ratioIt shows that the profitability of the market is degradedThis can also be confirmed from the recent intensive financial reports that the profitability of enterprises has declined. Another criterion for judging valuations is to look at the risk-free rate of return, currentlyThe yield on the 10-year Treasury note has fallen to its lowest value in nearly 20 years, falling below 25%。The lower the risk-free rate of return, the lower the opportunity cost and the greater the potential rate of returnThe current stock-to-debt ratio is at the historical quantile of 1%.

This 1% is also very strongLooking at not much, in fact, 1% of 20 years also has 50 days, even if the card tells you that the next 50 days will be **, the reality is very difficult, lightning slashed down, if you are not present, it will be even more uncomfortable.

Today, there are 2 more cities open to purchase restrictions, one is Suzhou and the other is Shanghai, Suzhou is fully open, and Shanghai is only open to the outer ring, and requires 5 years of social security. As long as housing prices are still falling, the conditions for liberalization will only become more and more relaxedHousing prices will bottom out in the third and fourth quarters of this year. As an anti-inflation asset, the situation of housing prices is rare, and at present we are like experiencing a mini version of the Japanese real estate bubble, the property market economy has burst together, and since our bubble is relatively small, the speed of clearing will be faster.

According to the insurance price of the high-end version given by an insurance company, 360,000, the outside world speculates that the final price of Xiaomi car may be between 250,000 and 370,000. Xiaomi's stock price did not fluctuate dramatically because of this, and then Xiaomi responded to the untrue news on the Internet. Not excludedThis time, the ** is still a smoke bomb thrown from Xiaomi, so as to pave the way for the surprise price later, don't forget that hunger marketing was first born from Xiaomi.

Zhengzhou, Henan Province released a snowfall forecast map, and the official media used words such as ""first time to see" and "so outrageous" to describe this round of snowfall, remember that the last rainstorm also occurred in Zhengzhou, God can't always hold on to a place, Henan is the only province that has lowered its economic targets this year. If extreme weather does occur in the next two days, the agricultural vegetable and fruit sector can ambush a wave in advance.

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